Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月8日(週四)的市場技術分析。

昨天美股開盤下挫，道指收盤大跌200多點。導致昨天大盤走低的原因之一是能源價格繼續飆升，原油再創新高，收於每桶123美元以上。能源漲價對股市是非常不利的，正如我們曾提到的，目前華爾街最擔心的一個問題便是通脹，能源漲價勢必給企業盈利和消費者支出造成損害。事實上，昨天大盤的走勢同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的“大幅回調”的判斷非常吻合，我們當時提到：“儘管週二的走勢是看漲的，但是量能低迷意味著漲勢難以持續。另外，VIX跌至6 個月運行區間的最低點，這意味著很可能會爆發一輪更大幅度的回調。”

儘管大盤大幅走低，但是昨天James River Coal Company(JRCC)在近期強勢攀高的基礎上繼續逆市放量大漲，漲幅大約8%，收於30.88美元。這樣到目前為止，該股周漲幅在7個點左右，漲幅28%。

圖1.1 James River Coal Company(日線圖)

自從我們在3月26日的Swing trader Bulletin對該煤炭股作出推薦以來，股價漲幅已經高達90%左右，而且上漲一直伴隨著量能的放大，這是非常有利的。不過目前該股上漲空間已經被大幅壓縮，而且已經快速逼近2005年和2006年低點區域的關鍵阻力，因此未來數天出現一輪迴調整固走勢是不足為奇的。從長期來看，我們依然看漲JRCC，預計還將進一步走高。

週三的拋盤是大面積的，所有十大板塊全部出現回調。其中金融股再現去年10月來反覆出現的重跌局面，KBW銀行指數暴跌3.54%。

圖1.2 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

昨天銀行指數在測試過去7個月下降趨勢線阻力的時候迎來強勁賣壓，在日線圖上收出一根非常不利的反轉燭線。這一走勢是嚴重看跌的，意味著指數將重新測試3月低點區域的關鍵支撐，大約在75點。目前，跌勢很難遏制，直覺告訴我們，如果空頭能夠輕鬆拿下上週四低點(大約82.70點)，見75點不過是一眨眼的工夫。緊鄰阻力位大約在90點。

俗話說，銀行往東，大盤不往西。金融股的重跌，尤其是花旗(C)、JP摩根大通(JPM)、美銀(BAC)等金融龍頭股全部下跌3%-5%，給大盤造成嚴重拖累，標普大約下跌26點，收於1392點，跌幅1.8%。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨天我們提到：“週二的走勢非常不錯，不過成交量繼續低迷。自從4月份突破以來，成交一直不活躍。這一現象不太好，意味著這一波反彈可能到頭了。”結果昨天大盤果然大幅下挫。事實上這一走勢同我們數天前提出的“假突破” 的判斷如合符節，我們當時提到：“標普有可能在短暫突破1406點的11月低點關鍵阻力之後，再次跌回阻力下方。”昨天市場特徵有一個重要變化。在大盤最近的反彈行情中，成交量一直不足，但是昨天價量均出現反向變化，在價格下跌的時候，量能最終出現攀升。放量下跌，這對股市是最為不利的。因此我們預計大盤很快將測試50日均線的關鍵支撐。如果標普有效跌破上週四低點(1383 點)，將對此作出確認。關鍵阻力位在200日均線區域，大約1435點。

總結：毋庸諱言，週三大盤的走勢堪稱糟糕透頂。不過正如上面提到的，大盤可能一路跌向50日均線，暫時還不會改變中期上升趨勢。因此，在這樣一個重要的心理位置，多空雙方很可能將展開一番激烈的爭奪，預計未來數天大盤會加劇震盪。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday May 07, 2008.

As expected, stocks opened on a negative tone Tuesday that saw the Dow lost more than 100 points in early trading. Contributed to the early weaknesses were another record high energy prices - crude oil spiked to a record $122.35 a barrel - and Fannie Mae’s (FNM) big quarterly loss, still the stock rallied 8.91%. Speaking of energy, shares of James River Coal Company (JRCC) – a subject of our previous bullish discussion - jumped more than 10% in a face of yesterday’s 8% gains to $28.68, a new multi-year high. Just so that you know, shares of the coal producer gains more than 73% since featured in our March 26 “Swing trader Bulletin”. Apparently, coal stocks are doing pretty well lately. Shares of Fording Canadian Coal (FDG) also jumped 4.43% today or about 10% after profiled in our “Swing trader Bulletin” 2 days ago.

Market, however, stabilized by midday and moved higher as traders are betting that the U.S. economy will improve in the second half. This is, of course, a very bold guess though today trading is indicative that this group of traders is willing to put the money where their mouth is. And this is very positive.

Chart 1.1 – CBOE Volatility Index (daily).

General speaking, VIX values greater than 30 are generally associated with a large amount of volatility as a result of investor fear or uncertainty, while values below 20 generally correspond to less stressful, even complacent, times in the markets. Now with the VIX, or a fear indicator, is sitting at its lowest levels since October, it seems to us that traders are getting more comfortable with taking on more risks. And this, from a contrarian point of view, is bearish for the board market.

Buying interest in the energy and financial sectors provided the market a strong lift, the S&P rebounding from a 0.7% loss to finish the day with a 0.7% gain.

Chart 1.2 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The index rose above last week’s closing high after a test of support at the area of 10-day moving average was met with an aggressive wave of buying interest. This is bullish and helped setting the stage for an important test of key resistance at the area of 200-day moving average. Trading volume, however, remains disappointed. It has been light since we broke out in April. This is not very encouraging and suggesting that the rally might not sustain. Immediate support is at the area of last Thursday’s low, about 1383. This, if violates, will trigger a large scale sell-off that has the potential to push prices into the 1350-1325 area. Key resistance is at the area of 200-day moving average, about 1435.

In summary: this is a very interesting and important day. There were a lot of reasons to sell, however, the market pulled off a rally. This action is bullish. However, until we see a pickup in trading volume, it’s believed that the rally will not sustain. In addition, with the VIX hovering at the low-end of its six-month trading range, the odds for a larger-cycle pullback consolidation had also increased.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月7日(週三)的市場技術分析。

恰如我們所料，昨天美股低開高走，道指早盤一度下跌超過100點。導致昨天早盤走軟的因素有兩個，一個是油價再創新高，原油一度飆升至每桶 122.35美元的新高，另一個則是房利美(FNM)報告季度巨額虧損，不過公司股價反倒大漲8.91%。能源股方面，我們最近作出看漲評論的James River Coal Company(JRCC)在前天大漲8%的基礎上，昨天繼續飆升10%以上，收於28.68美元的多年來新高。這樣，自從我們在3月26日的Swing trader Bulletin中對該煤業公司股票作出推薦以來，漲幅已經超過73%。很明顯，最近煤礦股表現非常不錯。昨天Fording Canadian Coal(FDG)同樣大漲4.43%，這樣我們在3天前的Swing trader Bulletin中作出買入推薦後漲幅約為10%。

儘管開盤下跌，午盤市場成功企穩並不斷攀高，原因是投資者普遍認為美國經濟在下半年將有所回暖。儘管這一猜測有些過於大膽，不過仍是一個非常有利的信號，說明市場信心在恢復。

圖1.1 芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數(日線圖)

波動率指數(VIX)是衡量投資者情緒的一個指標。一般來說，波動率指數高於30通常意味著投資者恐慌或很高的不確定性，說明市場可能急劇波動，而如果指數低於20，則意味著市場處於相對平穩、壓力較小的階段。目前VIX已經跌入去年10月以來的最低水平，說明投資者的風險偏好程度比較高。這一點，從反向操作的角度來看，是一個大盤看跌的信號。

能源股和金融股的買盤有力拉升了大盤，標普開始下跌0.7%，收盤反而上漲0.7%。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普在測試10日均線支撐時迎來大量買盤，收於上周最高收盤點位之上。這是一個看漲信號，下一步將測試200日均線的關鍵阻力位。不過成交量依然比較低迷，這是一個不太有利的跡象，意味著漲勢可能難以持續。緊鄰支撐位在上週四的低點，大約1383點。如果這一位置如果被擊穿，將激發大量拋盤，從而可能將指數推向1350-1325點的區間。關鍵阻力位在200日均線，大約1435點。

總結：昨天的行情非常有意思，也是很重要的一個交易日。儘管有很多的出貨理由，市場還是成功拉升。這是看漲的。不過，如果量能繼續低迷的話，這一輪漲勢恐怕難以為繼。另外，VIX跌至6個月運行區間的最低點，這意味著很可能會爆發一輪更大幅度的回調。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday May 06, 2008.

As we’ve predicted in the previous Market Outlook that: “the market is pretty much overbought in a medium-term basis - a situation that often precedes a pullback consolidation” - equity market closed lower Monday with the Dow Jones industrial lost 88 points or 0.68% to 12969. Contributed to the overall weakness were a record high crude oil prices and news of a failed takeover. U.S. light crude oil for June delivery jumped $3.65 to set a settlement record of $119.97 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. As a matter of fact, the action had confirmed the “bullish” notion that we’ve offered right here in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “recent test of was met with an aggressive wave of buying interest…the RSI indicator had also worked off the overbought condition. Technically speaking, the medium-term outlook is bullish.” Speaking of energy, shares of James River Coal Company (JRCC) jumped about 8% to $26, a new multi-year high.

Chart 1.1 - James River Coal Company (daily).

Shares of the coal producer gains about 60% since featured in our March 26 “Swing Trader Bulletin” and done so on technical confirmation – volume surged significantly on breakouts. Monday’s bullish breakout had pushed price well above the 50-day moving average and this is considered a short-term overbought. That being said, the stock seems to be overextended at the moment, so expect some backings and fillings – at least, last Friday’s bullish breakout gap at $24.09. Overall, we’re still bullish on JRCC and expecting the stock to trend higher.

Topping Monday’s headline was news that Microsoft (MSFT) abandoned its acquisition plans after its increased offer was rejected at Yahoo! (YHOO). Shares of Yahoo plummeted 15% while the tech rich, NASDAQ composite index lost about 13 points or 0.52% as results.

Chart 1.2 - NASDAQ composite index (daily).

As expected, the index settled with modest losses on Monday after the test of key resistance at the area of 200-day moving average was met with a bunch of sellers. Although seemingly for further short-term losses, the bears will not have any cases until they manage to push prices below last Thursday’s low at 2416. As mentioned, a sustain decline below this level will increase the probability for a test of key support is at the area of 50-day moving average, about 2320. Immediate resistance is about 2520.

Financial stocks were also under-selling pressure Monday after Friedman Billings said Bank of America (BAC) may renegotiate its deal to acquire Countrywide Financial (CFC) to $2 per share or less from $7 per share. Friedman noted Bank of America faces $20 billion to $30 billion in loan write-downs on the close of the Countrywide’s transaction. The KBW Bank index lost 1.12% as a result.

Chart 1.3 – KBW Bank index (daily).

The sector took an abrupt turn to the downside after the test of key price level at the area of the eight-month falling trend-line. Technically speaking, Monday’s trading action is bearish and suggesting a retest of critical support at the area of January-March low, about 75. A decline below last Thursday’s low at 82.72 will confirm this. Immediate resistance is about 89.

As goes the bank so goes the tape, so to speak. Bad news surrounding financial stocks dragged down the board market. The S&P 500 index lost about 6 points or 0.45% to finish at 1407.

Chart 1.4 – S&P 500 index (daily).

As expected, the index slumped Monday as traders decided to lock in some profits in the face of the S&P 500’s 12% surge from March 17^th low to last week’s closing level. Also noticing the negative RSI divergence at recent high (see chart). This is very bearish. Right now, the most obvious level to watch is last Thursdays’ low at 1383. This, if violates, will trigger a large scale sell-off that has the potential to push prices into the 1350-1325 area. Key resistance is at the area of 200-day moving average, about 1435.

In summary: while seemingly vulnerable for further short-term losses, the bears will not have any cases until they manage to push prices below last Thursday’s low at S&P 1383.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月6日(週二)的市場技術分析。

我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提到：“市場在中期內已經嚴重超買，意味著市場有回調整理的需要。”不出我們所料，昨天大盤低收，道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌88點至12969點，跌幅0.68%。導致昨天大盤走軟的因素一是原油再創新高，二是微軟放棄收購雅虎的消息。紐約商業交易所6月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油期貨價格上漲3.65美元，收於每桶 119.97美元的新高。事實上，原油的走勢同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的看漲判斷十分吻合，我們當時提到： “原油價格在測試過去3個月上升趨勢線阻力的時候迎來強勁買盤……相對強弱指標(RSI)也不再超買。從技術上講，中期技術指標是看漲的。”能源股當中，昨天James River Coal Company(JRCC)股價大漲8%左右，收於26美元的多年來新高。

圖1.1 James River Coal Company(日線圖)

自從我們在3月26日的Swing Trader Bulletin中對該股作出推薦以來，股價漲幅已經達到60%左右。同時，昨天股價的放量飆升對突破作出了技術確認，並將價格大幅拉離50日均線。不過從短期來看，該股已經超買，因此很可能出現一定的回調，或至少補上24.09美元的跳空缺口。總體而言，我們依然看漲JRCC，預計它還將進一步攀高。

週一美股新聞的頭條是微軟(MSFT)棄購雅虎(YHOO)，原因是微軟的提價遭到了雅虎的拒絕。昨天雅虎股價大跌15%，拖累納斯達克綜合指數下跌約13個點，跌幅0.52%。

圖1.2 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

恰如我們所料，昨天納指在測試200日均線的關鍵阻力位時迎來一波賣盤，股指收盤小幅下挫。儘管短期內指數還可能進一步下挫，不過只要價格不跌破2416點的上週四低點，空頭便不會有太大的機會。正如我們昨天提到的，指數有效跌破這一位置將增大向下測試50日均線關鍵支撐的可能性，大約在 2320點。緊鄰阻力位大約在2520點。

週一金融股遭遇賣壓，原因是Friedman Billings分析師認為，美國銀行(BAC)有可能將對Countrywide Financial(CFC)的收購價調低至每股2美元或低於每股7美元，並認為美銀完成對CFC的收購之後，將面臨200億-300億美元的債務減記。昨天KBW銀行指數下跌1.12%。

圖1.3 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

銀行板塊在測試8個月下降趨勢線關鍵阻力區域的時候突然掉頭向下。從技術上講，週一的走勢是看跌的，意味著下一步將測試1月和3月低點的關鍵支撐，大約在75點。如果接下來價格有效跌破82.72點的上週四低點，將對這一走勢作出確認。緊鄰阻力位大約在89點。

俗話說，銀行往東，大盤不往西。金融板塊的負面消息也推低了大盤，標普500指數下跌大約6個點至1407點，跌幅0.45%。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普從3月17日低點到上週五收盤，這一輪反彈幅度已經達到12%。週一很多投資者紛紛選擇了逢高出貨、鎖定收益。我們從圖上還可以看到，最近相對強弱指標(RSI)出現頂背離，這是一個看跌信號。目前最應該關注的位置是上週四的低點，大約在1383點。如果標普擊穿這一位置，將觸發大量拋盤，有可能跌入1350-1325點的區間。關鍵阻力位在200日均線，大約1435點。

總結：大盤看起來短期內還有一跌，不過只要標普堅守在上週四低點1383點上方，空頭便不會有太大機會。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday May 05, 2008.

Stocks opened on a positive note Friday, looking to extend the prior session’s gains, though the rally eventually frizzle out amid a higher commodities prices. Still, stocks closed the session with a modest gain with the Dow Jones industrial up 48 points or 0.37% to 13058 – its highest close this year.

U.S. light crude oil for June delivery rose $3.80 to settle at $116.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. And COMEX gold for June delivery rose $7.10 to $858 an ounce. As a matter of fact, Friday’s trading action had confirmed the validity of the “commodities rebound” scenario that we’ve offered in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “recent decline had pushed gold prices into the area of key support at the 200-day moving average. Not only that this is a strong support, in fact this is the area where bargain hunters often place their bets, the RSI indicator is also indicating an extreme oversold condition – a situation that precursor to a meaningful technical rebound. That being said, recent sell-off seems to be overdone and this will eventually trigger a major buying opportunity.”

Chart 1.1 – World gold index (daily).

As predicted, the yellow metal rebound nicely after a test of an important sentiment level around the $850 was met with a new wave of buying interest. Right now upside follow-through is the key. Keep an eye on the 878 level. This, if hurdle and sustain, will trigger an acceleration run into the $950-$1000 area. Although as always, we must stress that recent decline in gold was anything but panicked. That being said, it’s possible that we’ll see a nasty weak bull shake out prior to a strong thrust upward. Critical support is at the area of last December’s bullish breakout point, about $800.

Chart 1.2 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

Similar to gold, oil also moved higher today, up more than 3% after a test of support at the area of three-month rising trend-line was met with an aggressive wave of buying interest. In addition, the RSI indicator had also worked off the overbought condition. Technically speaking, the medium-term technical outlook is bullish barring a close below last Thursday’s low at 110.50. Immediate resistance is at last Monday’s high, about 120.

With oil hanging around record high level, the fear that there is nothing to moderate the rise in inflation rippled through stocks – the Nasdaq composite index gave up all of the early gain and closed slightly lower.

Chart 1.3 - NASDAQ composite index (daily).

We’ve noted in the previous Market Outlook that: “while Thursday’s trading action is bullish, the RSI indicator is indicating an overbought condition, so chances are we’ll see a lot of whipsaw in the days ahead.” The index printed a bearish reversal bar today after an early rally into the area of 200-day moving average was met with an aggressive wave of selling interest. Volume had also expanded as price dropped. This is not very encouraging though it was expected. Right now the most obvious level to watch is Thursday’s low at 2416. A sustain decline below this level will increase the probability for a test of immediate support at the area of previous bullish breakout point, about 2390. Critical support is at the area of 50-day moving average, now at 2320.

Financial stocks were under pressure Friday after Standard &Poor’s downgraded Countrywide Financial’s (CFC) debt to junk. The downgrade is a wakeup call to those who bet that the worst of the credit crisis is over. Weakness in the financial sector dragged down the board market. The S&P 500 index gave back a majority of its early gains to close up just 4 points or 0.32%.

Chart 1.4 – S&P 500 index (daily).

We’ve said on May 01 that: “the main event here is a breach of key resistance at the area of last November’s low. This is bullish and should help getting the next up-leg started.” The index added on to previous gain. However, it ran into resistance at 1425 – it’s about 10 points below the 200-day moving average. As mentioned, not only that this is a tough level to overcome, the RSI indicator is also indicating an overbought condition. So it wouldn’t surprise us to see some whipsaws in the days a head. In short, the overall technical outlook remains positive barring a close below last Thursday’s low at 1383. Key resistance is at the area of 200-day moving average, about 1435.

In summary: technically speaking, the market is pretty much overbought in a medium-term basis - a situation that often precedes a pullback consolidation. However, we do not think the rally is over. Rather, it’s going to be a stair-step advance as market breaks through pieces of key resistances. That being said, while recent trading action was very bullish in most respect, the market needs a good pause before explode higher.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月5日(週一)的市場技術分析。

上週五美股跳空高開，本指望延續前一個交易日的漲勢，但是由於商品價格攀升，股市最終高開低走。儘管如此，上週五大盤還是略有上揚，道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲48點，收於13058點，漲幅0.37%，為今年最高收盤點位。

上週五，紐約商業交易所6月份交割的輕質低硫原油價格上漲3.80美元，收於每桶116.32美元。紐約商品交易所(COMEX)6月份交割的黃金期貨上漲7.10美元，收於每盎司858美元。事實上，上週五黃金的走勢同我們在當天的市場前瞻中提出的“商品價格反彈” 的判斷非常吻合，我們當時提到：“金價近期的回調走勢已經使得價格逼近200日均線區域。200日線是一個強大的支撐位，而且很多投資者都會等著在這裡抄底，另外相對強弱指標 (RSI)也顯示嚴重超賣，因此接下來很可能出現一波強勁的技術反彈。由此來看，最近的拋盤已經有些矯枉過正，最終會觸發獲利空間巨大的買入機會。”

圖1.1 世界黃金指數(日線圖)

恰如我們所料，黃金在測試850美元附近的重要心理價位的時候迎來一波新的買盤，出現較大反彈。眼下很有可能會進一步攀高，請關注878美元的位置。如果金價順利突破 878美元，激發的上升動能將使得價格加速攻向950-1000美元的區域。不過我們必須強調，黃金最近的走勢屬於穩步下挫，並非恐慌性的拋售，因此在強勁飆升之前，必將有一輪非常疲弱的震多行情。

圖1.2 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

同黃金走勢類似，原油價格在測試過去3個月上升趨勢線阻力的時候迎來強勁買盤，上週五漲幅超過3%。另外，相對強弱指標(RSI)也不再超買。從技術上講，中期技術指標是看漲的，除非收盤跌破上週四最低點，110.50美元。緊鄰阻力位在上週一高點，大約120美元。

油價在高位徘徊，市場擔心通脹的壓力無法得到抑制，這一擔憂也瀰漫到股市當中，納斯達克綜合指數上週五放棄了早盤全部漲幅，收盤小幅小挫。

圖1.3 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

在上週五的市場前瞻中我們提到：“週四的行情是看漲的，不過由於相對強弱指標(RSI)抬升至超買區域，預計未來數日很可能出現強烈震盪的走勢。” 上週五納指在上攻至200日均線阻力位時迎來強勁拋盤，指數反轉下行。這一走勢在我們預料之中，但對後市有些不利。目前最應該關注的位置是上週四的低點， 2416點。如果指數有效跌破這一位置，將增加測試前期向上突破形成的緊鄰支撐位的可能性，大約2390點。關鍵支撐位在50日均線附近，目前大約在 2320點。

上週五金融股再度遭遇賣壓，原因是標普將Countrywide Financial(CFC)的債務調降至垃圾級別。這一降級對那些猜測信貸危機已經脫離低谷的投資而言，無疑是當頭一棒。金融板塊的低迷也拖累了大盤，標普500指數放棄了早盤的大部分漲幅，收盤僅高收4個點，漲幅0.32%。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

我們在5月1日的評論中寫道：“昨天行情最重要的一點是突破了去年11月低點的關鍵阻力，這是一個看漲信號，有助於指數進一步走高。”上週五標普的確延續了漲勢，不過指數已經逼近了1425點的200日均線的強大阻力位，目前距離僅10個點左右。恰如我們曾提到的，這一阻力易守難攻，而且相對強弱指標(RSI)也顯示超買，因此未來數日出現多空拉鋸戰的局面是不足為奇的。簡而言之，除非指數跌破1383點的上週四低點，標普總體技術面依然看漲。關鍵阻力位在200日均線，大約1435點。

總結：從技術上講，市場在中期內已經嚴重超買，意味著市場有回調整理的需要。不過我們並不認為這一輪漲勢已經終結，一旦大盤順利突破幾大關鍵阻力，將會出現跳躍式大漲。總而言之，近期大盤的走勢多數方面是非常有利的，不過在飆升之前需要休整一下。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday May 02, 2008.

Stocks started the month on a strong note that saw the Dow closed above 13,000 for the first time in almost 4 months. Tech provided leadership to the market, receiving particular help from large-cap tech stocks. High beta stocks like Google Inc (GOOG), Apple Inc (AAPL), Research in Motion Ltd (RIMM), and Baidu.com (BIDU) are all breaking out. Just so that you know, GOOG has gained more than 34% since profiled in our March 12 “Swing Trader Bulletin” as a potential buy candidate.

We’ve been talking about the “rotation out of commodities and into tech” in the past couple days. It continues today. Just look at what happened to commodities: oil hit $120 earlier in the week, now trades at $112.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down about 6%. Gold hit $1,000 in March, today closed at $865, down more than 13%. Meanwhile the tech rich index, NASDAQ composite, is trading at its highest level since January.

Chart 1.1 – World gold index (daily).

We’ve said on April 21 that: “Friday’s [April 18^th] breaks to the downside had completed the bearish lower-high pattern. In addition, the on balance volume indicator, or OBV, also traded below its 20-period moving average and hence confirmed the bearish trend…expects further short-term losses.” As you can see, the yellow metal had lost about 65 points immediately followed our bearish comment.

Recent decline had pushed prices into the area of key support at the 200-day moving average. Not only that this is a strong support, in fact this is the area where bargain hunters often place their bets, the RSI indicator is also indicating an extreme oversold condition – a situation that precursor to a meaningful technical rebound. That being said, recent sell-off seems to be overdone and this will eventually trigger a major buying opportunity.

Nasdaq Composite index posted an impressive gain of 2.81% in Thursday’s trading session. It’s now 14% off the 52-week low, which was hit in March.

Chart 1.2 - NASDAQ composite index (daily).

The index broke out from the six-month falling trend-line resistance today. The action is bullish and helped setting the stage for a test of key resistances around the 2540 level. This, if hurdle and sustain, will turn the major trend up. Although with the RSI indicator hovering around the overbought territory, chances are we’ll see a lot of whipsaw in the days ahead. Immediate support is about 2390.

The most significant part of the day was to see some panic buying in financial stocks as investors bet that the worst of the credit crisis is over. The KBW bank index gained 4.38% as a result. Strength in the financial sector also helped pushing the S&P higher.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The key event here is a breach of key resistance at the area of last November’s low, about 1406. This is bullish and should help getting the next up-leg started. Right now, the most obvious level to watch is the 200-day moving average, about 1450. Not only that this is a tough level to overcome, the RSI indicator is also indicating an overbought condition. So, it wouldn’t surprise us to see some aggressive selling activities in the days ahead. Immediate support is about 1370.

In summary: Thursday’s trading action was extremely strong in most respects. Though with the market’s fast approaching an extreme overbought condition, allow some rooms for whipsaw.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月2日(週五)的市場技術分析。

5月份第一個交易日美股便強勁上揚，道指近4個月來首次收於13000點重大心理關口上方。昨天科技股領漲了大盤，大型科技股動能尤其強勁。谷歌(GOOG)、蘋果(AAPL)、Research in Motion(RIM)、百度(BIDU)等高貝塔個股全線突破。我們可以看到，自從我們在3月12日的Swing Trader Bulletin中對谷歌作出買入推薦以來，該股漲幅已經超過34%。前幾天，我們提到“資金從商品流向科技股”，昨天這一趨勢得到繼續。我們只需看看最近商品的走勢就知道了：紐約商品交易所原油期貨本周初上摸每桶120美元，但昨天收於每桶112.52美元，下跌了大約6%；黃金3月份曾經達到1000 美元，但是昨天收盤價僅為865美元，跌幅超過13%。而與此同時，納斯達克綜合指數已經上攻至1月份以來的最高點。

圖1.1 世界黃金指數(日線圖)

我們在4月21日的市場前瞻中提到：“上週五(4月18日)的向下突破走勢已經形成了一個完整的“高點更低”形態，這是不利的。另外，平衡交易量指標(On Balance Volume,OBV)也低於其20日均線，進一步對跌勢作出了確認……預計短期內還將進一步下跌。”我們可以看到，我們作出此番看跌評論後，金價立即下跌了大約65點。

金價近期的回調走勢已經使得價格逼近200日均線區域。200日線是一個強大的支撐位，而且很多投資者都會等著在這裡抄底，另外相對強弱指標 (RSI)也顯示嚴重超賣，因此接下來很可能出現一波強勁的技術反彈。由此來看，最近的拋盤已經有些矯枉過正，最終會觸發獲利空間巨大的買入機會。

昨天納斯達克綜合指數大漲2.81%。納指在3月份創出52周新低，目前已經遠離底部14%。

圖1.2 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

昨天納指突破了6個月下降趨勢線的阻力。這一走勢是看漲的，為指數下一步測試2540點附近的重大阻力位打下了基礎。如果順利攻破這一阻力，納指的總體趨勢將由熊轉牛。不過由於相對強弱指標(RSI)抬升至超買區域，預計未來數日很可能出現強烈震盪的走勢。緊鄰支撐位大約在2390點。

昨天行情一個重要現象便是投資者瘋狂買進金融股，因為大家感覺信貸危機已經走出低谷。結果KBW銀行指數暴漲4.38%。金融股的強勢也推高了標普。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨天標普突破1406點附近的11月低點阻力位，這一走勢非常關鍵，有可能引發新一輪的上漲行情。目前最應該關注的位置是200日均線，大約 1450點。不但200日線的阻力位易守難攻，而且相對強弱指標(RSI)也顯示超買。因此未來數天出現強勁拋盤是不足為奇的。緊鄰支撐位大約在1370 點。

總結：昨天大盤的走勢非常強勁，對後市也十分有利。不過由於市場快速接近嚴重超買，因此多空雙方可能會有一番激戰。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday May 01, 2008.

Stocks finished lower Wednesday, gave up all of the earlier gains, as investors were disappointed with the Fed statement. As expected, the Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 2.00%. The discount rate was also cut by 25 basis points to 2.25%. The FOMC cited continued weakness in economic activity. However, instead of giving a clear indication that its latest rate-cutting cycle is over, the FED said that it is in a wait-and-see mode. What’s going on? With crude oil hanging near the $120 level, the Street is very concern about inflation and the effect it is having on corporate profits and consumer spending. That being said, if the FED continues to lower interest rate, it’s likely to do more damages than good.

Despite the overall weakness, shares of General Motors Corp (GM) jumped as much as $3.04 or 14.34% in Wednesday trading session before pullback a bit to settle at $23.20, up 9.43%. The automaker was the top gainer on the Dow after it reported a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss and said overseas sales helped to alleviate weakness in the U.S. market.

Chart 1.1 – General Motors Corp (daily).

Initially profiled in April 07 “Swing Trader Bulletin”, the stock has gained about 13% and remains well positioned. Technically speaking, Wednesday’s break to the upside had helped setting the stage for an acceleration run toward key resistance at the area of February’s high, about $29. Immediate support is about $21.

Let’s take a look at the major indices:

Chart 1.2 - Dow Jones industrial average (daily).

Do not let the flat close fool you. The most significant part of the day was to see a test of the double resistances at the 13000 level – an important psychological mark – met with an aggressive wave of selling interest. Also noticing the negative RSI divergence at recent high. The action is bearish and suggesting a test of key support at the area of 50-day moving average, now at 12450. A sustain decline below 12650 will confirm this.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The key event here is a test of November’s low’s – an important sentiment level – in Wednesday’s trading session though the rally eventually frizzle out and price closed the day slightly lower. As a matter of fact, the action had confirmed the validity of the “fake out” scenario that we’ve offered in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “fake-out – a break above key price level and back below it – is not uncommon in FED days… chances are we’ll see a few false moves in both directions in a next couple of days.”

General speaking, Wednesday’s trading action suggests that the 1370-1406 trading is likely to stay a bit longer. Right now the most obvious level to watch is, of course, the 1370 level. This, if violates, will increase the odds for a retest of key support at the area of 50-day moving average, now at 1350.

In summary: whether Wednesday FED’s induced sell-off is a merely a pause that refresh or is the beginning of something worse is remained to be seen; though until we see a sustain breakaway from the S&P 1370-1406 trading range, we believe that the market will remain in limbo.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月1日(週四)的市場技術分析。

昨天聯儲宣佈降息25個基點，在投資者失望情緒的主導下，大盤放棄上午的全部漲幅，收盤出現下跌。同大家的預期一致，昨天聯儲將聯邦基金利率下調 25個基點至2.00%，同時降低貼現率25個基點至2.25%。聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)提出降息的理由是經濟活動持續出現萎縮。不過，聯儲並沒有給出明確的暗示，最近的這一輪降息週期是否已經結束，而表示將相機行事。到底聯儲是否還會繼續降息呢？近期油價一直在120美元附近徘徊，華爾街對通脹問題非常擔憂，擔心會對企業利潤和消費者支出產生負面影響。因此，如果聯儲繼續降低利率，很可能最終結果是弊大於利。

儘管大盤有所下跌，但是通用汽車(GM)的股價昨天一度飆漲3.04美元，漲幅14.34%，收盤小幅回調至23.20美元，漲幅9.43%。公司昨日公佈了小於預期的季度虧損，表示海外銷售的增長部分抵消了美國市場的萎縮，昨日該股位居道指漲幅榜之首。

圖1.1 通用汽車(日線圖)

我們最早在4月7日的Swing Trader Bulletin中對該股作出了推薦，迄今股價上漲13%左右，而且仍有上行空間。從技術上講，週三的向上突破奠定了一個基礎，使得股價有可能加速上攻2 月高點附近的重要阻力位，大約29美元。緊鄰支撐位大約在21美元。

再來看看各大股指的情況：

圖1.2 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

儘管昨天道指基本平收，但是我們不要被它所欺騙，昨日行情最重要的一點是對13000點重要心理關口的測試，道指在這一位置迎來強勁拋盤。同時相對強弱指標(RSI)出現頂背離，這些都是看跌的信號，意味著道指有可能測試50日均線附近的重要支撐，目前在12450點。如果指數堅定跌破 12650點，將確認這一走勢。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨天標普走勢中最重要的一點是對11月低點重要心理位置的測試，指數探高回落，最終小幅下挫，收出一根上影線。事實上，標普的價格表現同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的“假突破”判斷非常吻合，我們當時提到：“在聯儲公告發佈日，出現『假突破』是很常見的，也就是說不排除標普突破1406點又跌回下方的可能。總而言之，在未來幾個交易日出現一些『騙線』的漲跌是不足為奇的。”

總的來說，昨天的走勢意味著標普1370-1406點的區間震盪可能還將繼續下去。目前最應該關注的位置顯然是1370點。如果股指擊穿這一位置，將增加向下測試50日均線關鍵支撐區域的可能性，目前大約在1350點。

總結：不論週三聯儲消息導致的拋盤只是上攻過程中的蓄勢回調，還是一輪跌勢的開始，尚需拭目以待。不過我們認為，如果標普不能有效突破1370-1406點的交易區間，大盤還將繼續維持震盪。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

The Dow up more than 100 points prior to the FOMC announcement. What’s going on?

Topping today headline was news that General Motors Corp (GM), a Dow component, reported a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss and said overseas sales helped to alleviate weakness in the U.S. market. Its shares rose more than 12%, their biggest one-day advance since May 2005. Just so that you know, initially profiled in April 07 “Swing Trader Bulletin”, GM has gained about 13% and remains well positioned.

As we’ve noted in the previous Market Outlook, smart money continues to rotate into tech stocks. This, in fact, was exactly what the members of our “Swing Trader Bulletin” been doing in the past couple of weeks. Yes, we’re always early though it’s better to be early than sorry! Initially profiled on March 12, Google Inc (GOOG) gained more than 32%.

Initially profiled on March 10, Ariba Inc (ARBA) gained more than 33%.

Initially profiled on April 1, Amdocs Ltd (DOX) gains about 12% and remains well position.

Retails and medical instruments stocks are also doing very well. Initially profiled in April 15 “Swing Trader Bulletin”, Big Lots Inc (BIG) has gained more than 25% and remains well positioned.

And so BDX. Initially profiled in April 21, Becton Dickinson & Co (BDX) advances for 6 straight days and remains well positioned.

These are just couples of many successful trades that our member had enjoyed recently. After all, aren’t you glad you subscribed?

P.S. Take advantage of the 30 days special trial [new member only]. Join the group of elite traders and receiving these daily trading ideas, click here to subscribe.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday April 30, 2008.

As expected, stocks drifting sideways Tuesday as investors await the FOMC announcement on interest tomorrow. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.3% and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost nearly 0.4%. Though do not let the quiet day fool you. The most significant part of the day was to see money quietly coming out of commodities and commodities related stocks like gold and energy and into tech stocks.

Chart 1.1 – World gold index (daily).

The yellow metal lost about 50 points immediately followed our bearish comment on the commodity on April 21. While seemingly vulnerable for further short-term loss, we see no convincing evidence that the long-term bull market in commodity is over. As mentioned, the most obvious level to watch is the 200-day moving average – it’s a good place where bargain hunters often place their bets. In addition, the relative strength index indicator, or RSI, also suggests that commodity is pretty much oversold in a medium-term basis – a condition that precursor to a meaning rebound.

Despite the overall weakness, high beta stocks like Google Inc (GOOG), Baidu.com Inc (BIDU), Research In Motion Ltd (RIMM) and Apple Inc (AAPL) have broken out to multi-month highs in Tuesday trading session. This is a clear sign that some smart money is positioning themselves for a rotation out of commodities and into tech. The tech-heavy NASDAQ composite index gained about 1.7 points for the day.

Chart 1.2 – NASDAQ composite index (daily).

As you can see, tech stocks have been outperformed the S&P since late March. This is bullish though the bulls won’t have any cases until they manage to take out resistance at the six-month falling trend-line, now at 2450. This, if hurdle and sustain, will trigger all sorts of stops, so to speak, and hence has the potential to push prices into the area of 200-day moving average, about 2530. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below immediate support around the 2360 level can wreck the current outlook.

The slide in commodities and energy prices dragged down the board market. The S&P lost 0.39% as a result.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The index continues basing sideway just beneath resistance. As mentioned, while a majority of short-term indicators favor a break to the upside, the bears still have the benefit of the doubts until we see a sustain breakout above key resistance at the area of November’s low, about 1406. Although, fake-out – a break above 1406 and back below it – is not uncommon in FED days. That being said, chances are we’ll see a few false moves in both directions in a next couple of days. Key support is at the area of 50-day moving average, now at 1345.

In summary: it seems to us that the market is in need of a meaningful catalyst to overcome the key resistance levels. Hopefully tomorrow FOMC announcement will do the trick.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月30日(週三)的市場技術分析。

恰如我們所料，昨天由於投資者等待聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)在今日公佈利率政策，大盤窄幅橫向運行。整個交易日道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌 0.3%，標普500指數下跌近0.4%。不過我們不要被表面上的風平浪靜所欺騙，昨天的行情最引人注目的一點就是，資金正悄悄地從黃金、能源等商品及相關個股撤出，流向科技股。

圖1.1 世界黃金指數(日線圖)

自從我們4月21日對黃金作出看跌評論以來，黃金指數立即下跌了大約50個點。儘管短期內金價還有可能進一步下挫，不過我們並無明確證據斷言商品的大牛市已經終結。正如我們上次提到的，我們最應該關注的位置是200日均線，很多投資者都會選擇在這個位置抄底。另外，相對強弱指標(RSI)也顯示黃金中期內嚴重超賣，預計接下來會有一波有力反彈。

儘管大盤萎靡不振，昨天谷歌(GOOG)、百度(BIDU)、Research In Motion(RIMM)和蘋果(AAPL)等高β值個股盤中卻突破至數月來新高。這是一個明顯的跡象，說明聰明錢正在商品和科技之間進行板塊輪動。昨天科技股占主導的納斯達克綜合指數上漲大約1.7個點。

圖1.2 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

我們可以看到，納指從3月末以來動能比標普更為強勁。這是看漲的，不過在納指攻佔2450點附近的6個月下降趨勢線阻力之前，多頭不會有太大機會。相反，如果納指堅定突破長期趨勢線，將觸發大量止損，其激發的動能有可能將指數推向2530點附近的200日均線區域。在目前形勢下，納指只有堅定跌破 2360點附近的緊鄰支撐位，才可能逆轉目前的看漲態勢。

商品和能源價格的下跌也拖累了大盤，標普昨日下挫0.39%。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨日指數繼續在水平阻力位下方盤整。正如我們提到的，儘管大量短期指標都支持指數向上突破，但是在指數堅定站上1406點附近的11月低點關鍵阻力之前，空頭依然掌握著主導權。而且，在聯儲公告發佈日，出現“假突破”也是很常見的，也就是說不排除標普突破1406點又跌回下方的可能。總而言之，在未來幾個交易日出現一些“騙線”的漲跌是不足為奇的。關鍵支撐位在50日均線，目前在1345點。

總結：在我們看來，大盤要攻破重大阻力位，需要有重大利好的推動。今天下午聯儲的公告有望成為這樣的催化劑。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday April 29, 2008.

Stocks finished lower Monday, giving up early gains sparked by Mars’ $23 billion buyout of Wrigley (WWY), as investors jittered ahead of the start of the two-day Fed policy meeting. Also contributed to the overall weakness was a record high energy price - U.S. light crude oil for June delivery rose 23 cents to settle at $118.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after hitting a record $119.93 earlier in electronic trading. For the day, both of the Dow Jones industrial average and the broader market index, Standard & Poor’s 500, lost a few points to end at 12871 and 1396 respectively. Monday’s trading action had once again confirmed the validity of the “sideway consolidation” scenario that we’ve traced out right here in last week’s Market Outlook when we wrote that: “until proven otherwise expect the S&P to drift sideway within the 1370-1400 trading range.”

Speaking of the FED, the bond market believe that the FED will cut rates a quarter point and signal that the period of cutting rates is coming to a close.

Despite the overall weakness, shares of Big Lots Inc (BIG) jumped almost 4% on heavy volume after JPMorgan upgraded the closeout retailer to “Overweight” from “Neutral”.

Chart 1.1 – Big Lots Inc (daily).

Initially profiled in April 15 “Swing Trader Bulletin”, BIG has gained more than 20% and remains well positioned. Technically speaking, Monday’s break to the upside is bullish and hence confirmed the test of key resistance around the $30 level. This, if hurdle and sustained, will trigger an acceleration run to 2007 high, about $35. In short, the near-term outlook remains bullish barring a close below key support at the area of previous bullish breakout point, about $24.

Let’s take a look at the major indices:

Chart 1.2 – Dow Jones industrial average (daily).

Prices drifting sideway just beneath key resistances at the area of 200-day moving average and December 2007 low, about 13070, (see chart). Volume remains low through out last week’s rally. This is indicative that professional or smart money is still sitting on the sideline. And this is bearish for the market on the long-term. That being said, the bulls will not have any cases until they manage to take out key resistances around the 13100 area. Immediate support is about 12650.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

It worth noticing that the index managed to breach the 1400 mark – an important sentiment level – during Monday’s trading session though the rally eventually frizzle out and the index close the day with a slight loss. While Monday’s trading action wasn’t impressive, it might be the first wave of a series of rally attempts that have the potential to pop prices through key resistance at the area of November’s low, about 1406, and into the 200-day moving average, about 1435 – though this is not expected tomorrow. Key support is at the area of 50-day moving average, now at 1345.

In summary: Monday’s choppy and low volume trading session is indicative that despite recent strength, smart money is sitting on the sideline. So it wouldn’t surprise us to see the holding pattern carries on until Wednesday’s Fed decision.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月29日(週二)的市場技術分析。

週一美股略有下挫。上午受私募股權基金Mars以230億美元收購箭牌(WWY)的消息刺激，大盤有所上揚，不過尾盤部分投資者選擇了逢高出貨，因為即將召開的聯儲會議將帶來不確定因素。另外昨天油價再創新高也是一個負面因素，紐約商品交易所6月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油價格在電子交易中一度達到 119.93美元，最後上漲23美分收於每桶118.75美元。昨天道瓊斯工業平均指數和標普500指數均下跌數點，分別收於12871點和1396 點。昨天大盤的走勢同我們在上周的市場前瞻中提出的“橫向整理”的判斷非常吻合，我們當時寫道：“如果不出意外，預計標普將在1370-1400點之間的區域橫向震盪。”

關於今天的聯儲會議，從債券市場的反應來看，投資者預期聯儲將會降息25個基點，並顯示聯儲這一輪降息週期已接近尾聲。

儘管整體股市走軟，但是昨天清倉貨零售商Big Lots(BIG)股價放量大漲將近4%，原因是JP摩根將其股票評級從“中立”調升至“買入”。

圖1.1 Big Lots(日線圖)

我們最早在4月15日的Swing Trader Bulletin中對Big Lots作出了推薦，至今該股漲幅已經超過20%，而且還有上漲空間。從技術上講，週一的向上突破是一個看漲信號，確認了向30美元附近關鍵阻力作出測試的走勢。如果股價能夠堅定突破30美元的阻力位，將激發強大動能，加速向35美元左右的2007年高點進發。簡而言之，除非該股收盤跌破24美元左右的前期向上突破位的關鍵支撐，短期態勢依然看漲。

再來看看各大股指的情況：

圖1.2 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

從圖上我們可以看到，最近道指一直在200日均線和2007年12月低點(大約13070點)兩大阻力位下方橫向運行。在上周的走高行情中，成交活躍度一直很低，這說明專業投資者和“聰明錢”觀望氣氛比較濃重。這對市場的長期走勢是一個看跌信號。由此看來，在道指成功佔領13100點附近的重大阻力位之前，市場多頭並沒有太大的機會。緊鄰支撐位大約在12650點。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

值得注意的是，昨天標普盤中成功突破1400點的重要心理關口，可惜最終漲幅出現回落，收盤還略有下挫。昨天的行情可謂平淡無奇，我們預計接下來標普還將多次向1406點的11月低點阻力和1435點的200日均線阻力發起挑戰，當然不會在今天。關鍵支撐位在50日均線區域，目前位於1345 點。

總結：週一的地量震盪行情說明，儘管大盤近期走勢不錯，但聰明錢仍採取觀望的立場。因此在週三聯儲公告發佈之前，大盤繼續橫向運行是在情理之中的。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday April 28, 2008.

As expected, stocks opened lower Friday though the market managed to overcome early weaknesses to close above the zero line as investors set aside worries about surging energy prices and Microsoft’s underwhelming forecast, and picked up a variety of “cheap” financial stocks. For the day, The Dow Jones industrial average added 0.3% to finish at 12891 - its highest close in nearly four months.

Oil reached new record high Friday amid concern that strikes at a BP P.L.C (BP) refinery in Scotland and an unrelated facility in Nigeria could jeopardize production. U.S. light crude oil for June delivery jumped $2.46 on supply concerns to settle at $118.42 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Chart 1.1 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

Technically speaking, Friday’s break to the upside is bullish. It broke the three-day consolidation pattern and helped setting the stage for a test of an important sentiment 120 level. In short, the medium-term outlook remains bullish barring a close below last Thursday’s low at 114.40.

Unsurprisingly, tech stocks were underselling pressure Friday amid weakness in shares of Microsoft (MSFT), which felt more than 6% in response to the lousy fourth quarter forecast.

Chart 1.2 – Microsoft Corp (daily).

As predicted, the stock dropped hard Friday and tested key support around the $29.50 level. While the action is bearish, the late-day upward push suggests that this level might hold for awhile. Expect an oversold consolidation in the days ahead. Critical support is about 28.50. Immediate resistance is about $31.

The financial sector was an outperformed Friday amid an upbeat earning report from American Express (AXP). In addition, shares of Merrill Lynch & Co (MER) also closed significantly higher after the Financial Times reported that Merrill is in discussions with private equity firm TPG regarding possible investments in the investment bank.

Chart 1.3 – KBW Bank index (daily).

The sector has been on better ground for the last couple of days as investors have started to bet that the worst of the credit market crisis is over. It seems poised for a test of key price level at the area of the seven-month falling trend-line resistance, now at 87. At this moment, it’s impossible to know for sure whether this level can be taken out or not though a sustain breakout above it will break the “lower highs” pattern going back to October 2007. Critical support remains at 75.

Good news surrounding financial stocks had helped to send the board market higher with the S&P 500 index added 9 points or 0.65% to close at 1397.

Chart 1.4 – S&P 500 index (daily).

Friday’s trading action had confirmed the validity of the “sideway consolidation” scenario that we’ve traced out right here in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “Thursday’s trading action didn’t have the characteristic of a bullish breakout day – it’s rather a continuation the pullback consolidation pattern that starts on Monday April 21^st. Of course, this won’t last forever though until proven otherwise expect the index to drift sideway within the 1370-1400 trading range.”

A milestone here was a crack the old February high at 1396. While the action is bullish, there are quite a number of tough barriers to confront. The first one isn’t very far, it’s the November’s low, about 1406. And even it can overcome that, the 200-day moving average is going to be an even tougher level to encounter. Given the extreme overbought condition, we doubt that the market can overcome it within this rally.

Right now, the most obvious level to watch is the key price resistance at November’s low, about 1406. This, if hurdle and sustain on a retest, will break the “lower highs” pattern going back to October 2007 and hence suggesting higher prices heading into the second half of the year. Key support is at the area of 50-day moving average, now at 1345.

In summary: this is decision time for the market. Despite last week’s strength, technical evidence favoring both bulls and bears. Given the action in the financial complex of late, it appears that fast money is being put back to work on hopes of a turnaround. This is bullish. However, the bulls have got to pay some respects to the overhead resistance at S&P 1406. Until we see a sustain break above this level on “good” volume, the bears still have the loudest growl.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月28日(週一)的市場技術分析。

恰如我們所料，上週五美股開盤後遭遇賣壓，不過投資者成功克服能源價格飆升和微軟平庸財測帶來的憂慮情緒，下午在金融股觸底反彈行情的帶領下，大盤成功收復上午失地。整個交易日道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲0.3%，收於12891點，為近4個月來最高收盤。

上週五，由於投資者擔心英國石油公司(BP)一家蘇格蘭煉油廠的罷工事件和尼日利亞石油設施遇襲將對全球石油供應產生不利影響，油價創出新高。紐約商品交易所6月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油大漲2.46美元，收於每桶118.42美元。

圖1.1 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

從技術上講，上週五的向上突破是看漲的。這一走勢突破了3日來的整理態勢，為進一步上攻、測試120美元的心理關口奠定了基礎。總而言之，除非油價收盤跌破上週四低點，114.40美元，否則中期趨勢依然看漲。

上週五，微軟(MSFT)由於第四財季業績目標令投資者大感失望，股價大跌6%以上，並給科技股帶來賣壓，拖累納值下挫。

圖1.2 微軟(日線圖)

恰如我們所料，上週五微軟股價大跌，測試29.50美元附近的關鍵支撐。整個走勢是不利的，不過尾盤的小幅回升說明這一支撐或許還能維持一下，預計未來數日有可能出現一波超賣整理行情。重大支撐位大約在28.50美元，緊鄰阻力位大約在31美元。

上週五金融板塊表現優於大盤，主要原因是美國運通(AXP)公佈的利好財報，同時美林(MER)股價也大幅飆升，因為根據《金融時報》報道，私募股權基金TPG正與美林商談，有可能向美林提供注資。

圖1.3 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

過去幾個交易日，由於投資者普遍認為信貸危機的低潮已經過去，金融板塊大幅反彈，目前似乎已經準備好向87點的7個月下降趨勢線阻力發起測試。目前我們還無法預知這一關鍵點位能否被突破，不過一旦指數堅定站上這一阻力，將打破從2007年10月以來“高點更低”的不利形態。重大支撐位仍然在75 點。

金融股的利好消息也助推了大盤，標普500指數上漲9個點，收於1397點，漲幅0.65%。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

上週五標普的走勢同我們在當日的市場前瞻中提出的“橫向整理”的判斷如合符節，我們當時提到：“從技術上講，週四的走勢並不具備『向上突破』的特徵，反而只是4月21日開始的整理行情的延續。當然，這一局面不會永久持續下去。不過如果不出現意外的話，我們預計指數將繼續在1370-1400點的區間震盪。”

上週五行情中最關鍵的一點是攻克了1396點的2月份前期高點阻力。這是一個看漲信號，不過我們也不應過於樂觀，因為上方仍面臨重重阻礙。第一重障礙已經非常近了，那就是去年11月的低點阻力，大約1406點。就算標普能夠過這一關，接下來的200日均線阻力可能更加易守難攻。再說現在市場已經嚴重超買，我們覺得這一波反彈可能很難完成這一艱巨任務。

目前最應該關注的位置便是11月低點的阻力位，大約1406點。如果這一位置被堅定突破，將打破從2007年10月起開始形成的“高點更低”的形態，從而預示著下半年會有較好的行情。關鍵支撐位在50日均線附近，目前在1345點。

總結：現在是市場做決定的時刻。大盤經過上周的上漲之後，目前技術面多頭空頭誰也不佔優。從最近金融股的強勁反彈來看，似乎快錢正在大舉抄底，看多後市。這是一個看漲信號。但是另一方面，標普在1406點面臨重大阻力，多頭也不可能一帆風順。總而言之，除非標普放量突破這一點位，否則空頭依然佔據主導。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday April 25, 2008.

Stocks closed higher across the board Thursday with the Dow Jones industrial average added around 0.7% to finish at 12848 and the broader, Standard & Poor’s 500, index added 0.6% - the S&P posted a much bigger gain, reached as high as 1397 in the early afternoon – to close at 1388. As matter of fact, today trading action was very consistent to what we’ve offered in the previous Market Outlook: “the S&P seems poised for a test of an important psychological level, around the 1400 area. However, the wobbly readings from indicators like the short-term slow stochastic suggest that, more likely than not, this test is going to fail.”

Contribute the overall optimism were a stronger dollar and upbeat earnings from Ford Motor Co (F) and Apple Inc (AAPL). Speaking of earning, shares of Microsoft Corp (MSFT) were under selling pressure, down almost 4% in Thursday evening trading, after the world’s biggest software maker reported a rise in earnings that beat expectations but its outlook disappointed investors.

Chart 1.1 – Microsoft Corp (daily).

Do not let the above chart fool you, the stock down about 4% to about $30.20 in after hours trading. Technically speaking, the major resistance at November-December’s low, about $32.63, had been a very important line in the sand. And despite Thursday’s strength, the line remains untouched! This should tell us the strength of the stock going into this evening earning report – very weak, of course! In addition, the short-term RSI indicator is indicating that the stock is extremely overbought – a condition that’s also precursor to a pullback consolidation. So, it wouldn’t surprise us to see a test of immediate support at previous bullish breakout, about $29.50, in the days ahead.

It worth noticing that a stronger dollar has triggered an interesting market rotation: money is coming out of commodities and commodity related stocks and going into financials and home builders. The PHLX Housing Sector Index rose more than 3% while the Amex Gold Bugs Index dropped more than 4% as results.

Chart 1.2 – PHLX Housing Sector Index (daily).

The housing is doing very well, up about 13 points or 10% immediately followed our bullish comment on the sector on March 12. While Thursday’s trading action is bullish and suggesting further short-term gain, the upside could be limited to February’s high, about 157. What’s going on? As you can see, we’ve approached this level and failed at least three times since last December – a lot of good money have been burned at this level before and there is no clear evidence that suggests it won’t happen again. With that said, from a long-term perspective, the bulls will not have any cases unless prices break above the 157 level. This, if clear and sustain, will break the pattern of lower lows that goes back into early 2006 and help setting the stage for s test of 2006 low, about 190.

As noted above, the bullion took a beating Thursday amid a stronger greenback. In fact, recent trading action had confirmed the validity of the “short-term bearish” scenario that we’ve offered in our April 21 Market Outlook when we wrote that: “Friday’s [April 18^th] break to the downside had completed the bearish lower-high pattern. In addition, the on balance volume indicator, or OBV, also traded below its 20-period moving average and hence confirmed the bearish trend…expects further short-term losses.”

Chart 1.3 – Amex Gold Bugs Index (daily).

Thursday’s massive sell-off had pushed prices into key support at the area of the 200-day moving average. Not only that this is a pretty strong support – it’s good place where bargain hunters often place their bets – the short-term RSI indicator is also indicating an extreme oversold condition. So, it wouldn’t surprise us to see a technical rebound in the days ahead. Immediate resistance is about 425.

Heavy buying interest in the financial and home builder stocks had helped to push the board market higher. The S&P up about 9 points to 1388.

Chart 1.4 – S&P 500 index (daily).

As expected, the index tested the important psychological 1400 level today. Not only that it failed to close above this level – this is also expected – Thursday’s trading volume was not very encouraging; it’s just about average. Technically speaking, today trading action didn’t have the characteristic of a “bullish breakout” day – it’s rather a continuation the pullback consolidation pattern that starts on Monday April 21^st. Of course, this won’t last forever though until proven otherwise expect the index to drift sideway within the 1370-1400 trading range. As mentioned, it’s critical that price stays above the 1370 level. This, if violate and sustain, will increase the odds for a retest of the 50-day moving average, about 1345 now.

In summary: while Thursday’s trading action is bullish, it doesn’t have the characteristic of a “bullish breakout” day. In short, it’s good but no firework!

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月25日(週五)的市場技術分析。

週四美股全線高收，道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲約0.7%至12848點，而覆蓋面更廣的標普500指數上揚0.6%，收於1388點。不過標普昨日盤中漲幅更大，下午剛開始時一度沖高至1397點。事實上，昨天大盤的走勢同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中所作的判斷非常吻合，我們當時寫道：“標普似乎馬上要測試1400點的重要心理點位。不過從短期慢速隨機指標的走向來看，測試出現失敗的可能性要更大一些。”

導致昨天市場出現樂觀情緒的主要消息，一是美元匯率走高，二是福特汽車(F)和蘋果(AAPL)發佈樂觀財報。另外昨天微軟(MSFT)也公佈了財報，儘管盈利所有上升並超出預期，但是公司發佈的財測數字令投資者感到失望，微軟股票遭到拋售，昨日盤後交易中股價下挫近4%。

圖1.1 微軟(日線圖)

不要被上面的圖騙了，因為微軟在昨天盤後又下跌了4%，大約到30.20美元。從技術上講，32.63美元左右的11月和12月低點的重大阻力位作用非常強大。儘管股價週四有所上揚，但仍未觸到這一位置。這顯然說明微軟股價在昨日盤後財報公佈前動能便非常疲弱！另外，短期相對強弱指標(RSI) 也顯示該股已經嚴重超買，因此未來數天股價測試前期突破位的緊鄰支撐是很有可能的，大約29.50美元。

值得注意的是，昨天美元的走強導致資金的流向發生改變：資金從商品和商品相關股票中流出，流進金融股和地產股。昨天費城股票交易所房地產指數 (PHLX Housing Sector Index)上漲3%以上，而美國證交所黃金板塊指數(Amex Gold Bugs Index)跌幅超過4%。

圖1.2 費城股票交易所房地產指數(日線圖)

最近房地產表現不錯，自從我們3月12日對板塊作出看漲評論以來，指數已經上漲了約13個點，漲幅10%。週四的走勢是看漲的，意味著短期內還將進一步走高，上方空間在2月高點，大約157點。我們從圖上可以看到，房地產指數已經多次接近這一位置，從去年12月開始至少已經3次測試失敗，大量資金都在這個位置被套，而且目前尚無明顯跡象表明故事不會重演。由此看來，從長期的角度講，除非指數站上157點，多頭便沒有太多機會。相反，如果指數堅定突破這一阻力，將改變從2006年初以來“低點更低”的不利形態，有可能出現測試2006年低點(大約190點)的走勢。

前面提到了，受美元匯率走高影響，黃金遭受重挫。事實上，昨天黃金的走勢證實了我們在4月21日的市場前瞻中提出的“短期看跌”的判斷，我們當時寫道：“週五(4月18日)的向下突破完成了看跌的『高點更低』的形態。另外，平衡交易量指標(On Balance Volume,OBV)同樣低於20日均線，說明還有下跌的要求……短期內將進一步下跌。”

圖1.3 美國證交所黃金板塊指數(日線圖)

週四的大跌使得價格跌破了200日均線的關鍵支撐。這是一個非常強有力的支撐，很多投資者都會選擇在這個位置抄底，而且短期相對強弱指標也顯示嚴重超賣，因此未來數天非常有可能出現一波技術反彈。緊鄰阻力位大約在425點。

金融板塊和地產板塊的走高帶動了大盤的上揚，標普上漲9個點至1388點。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

恰如我們所料，昨天標普對1400點的心理關口作出測試，而測試出現失敗也在我們預料之中。同時昨天的成交量也不是特別高，僅略微高於均值。從技術上講，昨天的走勢並不具備“向上突破”的特徵，反而只是4月21日開始的整理行情的延續。當然，這一局面不會永久持續下去。不過如果不出現意外的話，我們預計指數將繼續在 1370-1400點的區間震盪。我們曾提到，標普堅守1370點的位置非常關鍵，一旦被堅定擊穿，將增加指數向下測試50日均線的可能性，目前大約在 1345點。

總結：週四的走勢是看漲的，但是並不具備“向上突破”行情的特徵。總而言之，形勢有利，但不值得慶祝！

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。