“Trading the Market” Bulletin for $ July 24, 2007.

“Cubes Speculator” Bulletin for $ July 24, 2007.

Editor’s Note: The following article was written by Michelle Mai of Capital Essence. It has been reproduced with permission for the benefit of the S.M.R community.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday July 23, 2007.

As expected, the financial stocks continued to slide for a third day in a row followed our negative comment on the sector – see “Watch out for a correction” July 18, 2007.

As you can see, the Bank Index (BKX) is testing the important support at the 112-109 level.  While remains bearish on the sector, we do not expect this level to be taken in a single strike.  With that said, unless there is a headline(s) that everyone recognizes as bearish, expect some sorts of buying support around this level.  As mentioned, this sector has been the “tells” over the past four years and it should be on your trading radar.

Stock of the day: shares of Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM), profiled as a long holding in our “Swing Trader Bulletin” back in June ’07, jumped almost 9% last Friday, after a Cowen & Co. analyst recommended the shares to long-term buyers, saying the company’s turnaround is still on track.

Let’s take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame.  The board market index is consolidating near high after last week’s bullish breakout.  Unless, the bears manage to take out last week’s low @ 1560, the path with least resistant is still to the upside. Support is around 1506-1490.  Resistant is about 1600.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame.  As the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) suggests the blue-chip index is pretty much overbought and is due for a correction which could be in time (i.e., consolidation or basing sideway) rather than in price (i.e., sharp decline in price).  With that said, as long as the index sustains support at the 13600-13200 level, we’d be the first-in-line to buy any dips.  Resistant is about 15000.

The NASDAQ Composite Index (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame.  Tech stocks got hit hard Friday amid Google’s (GOOG) bad earning report.  As a matter of fact, Friday trading action was very consistent with what we’ve predicted in our Thursday evening “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” – “the “cubes” printed a bearish “doji” on the daily chart.  Expect some weaknesses…a decline to below $50.31 will confirm this and a test of $49.64 is, therefore, expected.  [Although] price could get pin @ $50 into option expiration day” the NASDAQ-100 Index ETF (QQQQ) managed to overcome early weakness – it hit as low as $49.74 – to close @ $50.05 Friday.  Any round-trip option traded could have made a quick profit of at least 30% intraday.
Technically speaking, the index is pretty much overbought after the strong advance over the past couple weeks.  With that said, last week decline could be the beginning of the long anticipated correction.  Support is about 1635.  Resistant is at the 2001 high – about 2893.

Bottom line: the market is pretty much overbought and hence, due for a correction, which is likely to be in time rather than in price.  With that said, as long as the majority of major indices sustain support at the June’s low, we’d buy this dip.

Until next time, good luck.

Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter.  To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

這是Capital Essence對2007年7月23日(週一)的技術前瞻分析。

不出所料，自從我們於7月18日對金融股作出負面評論之後，這個板塊連續三個交易日下跌。

大家可以看到，銀行指數(Bank Index)(BKX)正在考驗112點至109點的重要支撐位。雖然這個板塊仍然看跌，但我們並不認為上述支撐位會在一天之內就被擊穿。因此，除非媒體頭條報道說每一個人都看跌，否則預計在這個水平會出現一定的買盤。以前說過，這個板塊過去四年來一直是市場的領先指標，所以應該密切加以關注。

昨日焦點股：Williams-Sonoma Inc.(WSM)自2007年6月以來就是我們“Swing Trader Bulletin”的核心持股，上週五大漲近9%，之前Cowen & Co.一位分析師向長期投資者推薦此股，理由是該公司的復甦仍在有條不紊地進行。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的中期週線圖。上週看漲突破之後，該指數在高點附近整固。除非空頭能夠將該指數重新打壓至上週低點1560點之下，否則阻力最小的通道仍然是向上。支撐位約為1506點至1490點，阻力位約為1600點。

上面是道指的中期週線圖。從相對強弱指數(RSI)來看，道指的超買程度很嚴重，理當進行修正，這可能是時間上的修正(橫向區間整固)，也可能是價格上的修正(股價大幅下跌)。因此，只要該指數保持在13600點至13200點支撐位之上，我們將頭一個在回調時買進。阻力位約為15000點。

上面是納指的中期週線圖。受Google(GOOG)利空財報影響，上週五科技股遭到沉重打擊。事實上，上週五的交易狀況與我們在“Cubes Speculator Bulletin” 週四晚間內容中預計的非常吻合——“納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ)日線圖上形成了一個看跌的『十字星』型態，預計會有所走弱……如果跌破 50.31美元將確認這種分析，進而繼續考驗49.64美元，儘管在期權到期日價格可能被釘在50美元。”果然，上週五QQQQ努力挽回上午的弱勢——盤中一度跌至49.74美元，最終收盤於50.05美元。一個來回的任何期權交易盤中可迅速獲利至少30%。

技術面而言，納指在過去幾週強勁上揚之後已經處在嚴重超買狀態。因此，上週的下跌可能是預期中時間更長盤整的開始。支撐位約為1635點，阻力位約為2001年高點(約2893點)。

總結：市場嚴重超買，因此理當進行修正，修正可能是時間上的，也可能是價格上的。然而，只要主要股指大多數能夠保持在6月低點的支撐位之上，我們就將逢低買進。

Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter.  To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

“Cubes Speculator Bulletin” for $ July 23, 2007.

“Trading the Market” Bulletin for $ July 23, 2007.

Daily Swing List for $ July 23, 2007

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday July 20, 2007.

We’ve opined right here in our previous Market Outlook that “at this stage…the upside should be given the benefit of the doubt” – see “Upside should have the benefit of the doubt” July 19, 2007; equity market finished higher Thursday with the Dow finished just a hair above 14,000 for the first time ever amid positive earnings news. The tech-fueled NASDAQ Composite Index up 20.55 points to close at 2,720.04 – its highest level in over 6-1/2 years. In speaking of tech, we’ve noted in our previous “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” that “the bulls should have the benefit of the doubts walking into this Friday option expiration…We believe there should be enough buying power to generate a run to at least recent high @ $50.30” the NASDAQ-100 Index ETF (QQQQ) hit as high as $50.66 during Thursday session. Any call option traded could have made at least 20% intraday.

It worth notice that, financial stocks continued to slide for a second day in a row followed our negative comment on the sector – see “Watch out for a correction” July 18, 2007. While remains bearish on the sector, we expect the decline to slow down a bit tomorrow. Keep an eye on the Bank Index (BKX) 112-109 level (see chart below). As mentioned, a decline to below this level indicates that the financial stocks could be entering a secular bear market. And this is does not bode well for the board market.

Stock of the day: shares of Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), profiled in our “Swing Trader Bulletin” on Wednesday night July 18, jumped almost 5% Thursday after the world’s largest specialty-coffee retailer said that it will begin offering Starbucks-branded coffee-flavored chocolate products in the fall under a deal with Hershey Co (HSY).

Let’s take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. As expected, the board market index finished at a new high today followed a successful test of support at the 1540 level. Support is around 1540. Resistant is about 1600.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. We’ve noted here yesterday that “[Wednesday] decline happened within a context of a long-term bull trend, [and hence,] there is absolutely nothing to worry about” – see “Upside should have the benefit of the doubt” July 19, 2007; the Dow finished at a new all-time high today. This is, of course, bullish. Support is about 13690.

Bottom line: apparently, the S&P got pin at 1550 into tomorrow option expiration day.

Until next time, good luck.

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

這是對2007年7月20日(週五)的市場前瞻分析。

By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence

我們在昨天的前瞻分析中說過：“目前……看漲應該是默認的立場。”週四，在利好財報的刺激下，股市高收，道指收盤略高於14,000點，為有史以來的頭一次。納指上漲了20.55點，收盤於2,720.04點——為六年半來的最高水平。說到科技股，我們在昨天的“Cubes Speculator Bulletin”文章中指出：“在週五期權到期日之前，多頭佔有默認看漲的便利……我們認為買方力量強大到足以將QQQQ至少推高到近期高點50.30 美元。”不出所料，週四交易中納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ)盤中最高達到50.66美元，買進任何看漲期權當天至少可獲利20%。

值得注意的是，金融股為連續第二個交易日下跌，之前我們於7月18日就這個板塊作出了負面的評論。我們仍然看空這個板塊，但預計今天下跌可能有所減弱。密切關注銀行指數(Bank Index)(BKX)的112點至109點水平(請看下圖)。我們說過，如果跌破這個位置，意味著金融股可能進入長期熊市，而這對整個市場都不是一個好兆頭。

週四焦點股：星巴克(Starbucks Corp.)(SBUX)。我們在“Swing Trader Bulletin” 週三晚間對該股進行過分析，週四該股即大漲5%，之前該公司稱，根據它與好時(Hershey Co)(HSY)的協議，它將與今年秋季開始提供星巴克品牌的咖啡口味的巧克力產品。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。不出所料，該指數在成功考驗1540點支撐位之後，昨天收盤再創新高。眼下，支撐位約為1540點，阻力位約為1600點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。我們在昨天的文章中指出：“(週三)的下跌發生在一輪長期牛市的環境下，(因此)絕對沒有什麼可擔憂的。”結果，道指昨天果然再創歷史新高。這當然是看漲信號。目前，支撐位約為13690點。

總結：由於今天是期權到期日，預計標普500指數收盤將被釘在1550點。

Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter.  To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

“Trading the Market” Bulletin for $ July 20, 2007.

“Cubes Speculator Bulletin” for $ July 20, 2007.

Swing Trader Bulletin: $ July 20 Watch-List

Editor’s Note: The following article was written by Michelle Mai of Capital Essence. It has been reproduced with permission for the benefit of the S.M.R community.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday July 19, 2007.

As predicted in our previous Market Outlook, “the rally that starts last Thursday is due for a correction, which could start as soon as tomorrow” – see “Watch out for a correction” July 18, 2007; equity market had made a sharp reversal Wednesday – the day after the Dow hit the 14K milestone.  A renewed wave of buying interest late in the session, however, gave the major averages a significant boost. The Dow was down as much as 148 points but managed to reclaim almost 100 points within the final 30 minutes of trading.  As a matter of fact, Wednesday trading action was pretty consistent with our “market is bullish by default” notion” – “the market is bullish by default as long as the S&P holds above the 1540 level.  And we’re, therefore, viewed this pull back as a buying opportunity”.

Financial stocks took a long dive Wednesday with Goldman Sachs (GS) – the only stock that matters to the Street, of course – down more than 2% right after our bearish discussion on the sector – see “Watch out for a correction” July 18, 2007.  As usual, follow through is the key.  So keep an eye on the stock and the sector as well. Remember this “as goes the bank, so goes the tape.”

Let’s take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.   As expected, the board market index had successfully tested the 1540 level today.  This is bullish, of course.  Support is around 1540.  Resistant is about 1600.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.  We’ve opined in the previous Market Outlook that “the rally that started last Thursday looked overextended” – see “Watch out for a correction” July 18, 2007; the blue chips index stumble today.  Technically speaking, since today decline is happened within a context of a long-term bull trend, there is nothing, yes absolutely nothing, to worry about.  Support is about 13690.

Bottom line: at this stage, our gut feeling said that “the upside should be given the benefit of the doubt.”  However, as noted above, follow-though is the key.  So keep an eye on Wednesday’s low for a breakdown to below this level suggests that today decline could be the beginning of the long anticipated correction.  On the other hand, a breakout to above the weekly’s high will resume the recent upleg.  In short, keep a close eye on the tape.

Until next time, good luck.