在昨天的前瞻分析中我們已經指出：「Cubes Speculator的專有交易程序顯示，股市已經出現短期的超賣現象，理應出現一次反彈」。不出所料，週一，股市反彈地很漂亮，標普500指數上漲了14點還多，最終收於1474點，漲幅為1%。

此次上揚應歸功於摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley) (MS) 信用評級的一次意外調升。標準普爾之前將該公司信用等級由 “AA-/A-1+” 升至 “A+/A-1″。

從上圖中可以看出，摩根士丹利評級調升的消息使銀行指數(BKX)大漲1.62%，這是看漲的信號。因此，我們預計大盤不久將考驗111點水平的阻力位。當前支撐位約為105點。再強調一下，金融股一直以來都是股市的「晴雨表」，因此應當予以密切關注。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。果然，在考驗了1460點支撐位後，該指數出現了一次漂亮的反彈。技術面而言，這是看漲的信號。預計大盤將考驗1490點左右的阻力位。當前支撐位約為1451點，阻力位約為1490點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數也在2個月來的橫向趨勢線的支撐位置出現反彈。總的來說，在該指數進入13600點範圍之前，多頭不會遇到任何嚴重的阻力。

總結：週一的反彈很可能是期待已久的超跌反彈的開始。然而，如果此次反彈沒能突破關鍵阻力位，股市將變得非常難看，因此還是先盡情享受股市重整旗鼓的這段日子吧。

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday July 31, 2007.

We’ve noted right here in the previous Market Outlook that “as far as the “Cubes Speculator” proprietary trading program concerns, market had reached a short-term oversold and is due for a bounce” – see “As goes the bank, so goes the tape” July 30, 2007; equity market bounced nicely Monday with the S&P rose more than 14 points or 1% to finished at 1474.

Contributed to the bullishness was a surprise upgrade on Morgan Stanley’s (MS) credit rating, which was raised to “AA-/A-1+” from “A+/A-1″ at Standard & Poor’s.

As you can see, the Bank Index (BKX) gained 1.62% on the news.  This is bullish.  And we’re, therefore, expected to see a test of resistant at the 111 level sooner rather than later.  Support is about 105.  Once again, the financial stocks had been the “tells” for this bull market, hence, they should be on your trading radar.

Let’s take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.  As expected, the board market index rebound nicely followed a test of support at the 1460 level.  Technically speaking, this is bullish.  Expect a test of resistant around the 1490 area.  Support is about 1454.  Resistant is about 1490.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.   Similar to the S&P, the Dow had also bounced off support at the two-month lateral trendline.   General speaking, the bulls shouldn’t get into any serious trouble until the index enters the 13600 zone.  Support is about 13220.  Resistant is about 13600.

Bottom line: more likely than not, Monday rebound is the beginning of the long awaited oversold bounce.  And you might want to enjoy it while it last for the market could turn very ugly should the rally loose steam right below key resistant.

Until next time, good luck.

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

“Trading the Market” Bulletin for $ July 31, 2007.

“Cubes Speculator” Bulletin for $ July 31, 2007.

Daily Stock pick for $ July 31, 2007

這是Capital Essence 對2007年7月30日的市場前瞻分析。

毋庸贅言，上週對於股市來說無疑是具有挑戰性的一週。主要股指平均跌幅達5%，人們對於金融股崩潰的擔憂有增無減。

(Click here to enlarge)

從上圖可以看出，自我們在2007年7與18日的前瞻分析中對該板塊做了看跌討論以後，銀行股指數(BKX)累計跌幅約為9%。技術面而言，跌破上週低點意味著該板塊將進入長期的熊市。而這正是空頭所需要的。

來看主要股指：

(Click here to enlarge)

以上是標普500指數的中期周線圖。上週的跌勢使該指數又重新回到了1460點左右的移動平均線所在點位及今年春季向上突破時形成的支撐位。我們說過，繼上週拋售之後，整體技術前景轉糟。儘管如此，只要該指數能夠保持在當前水平之上，多頭將佔上風。

(Click here to enlarge)

上面是道指的中期周線圖。與標普500指數不同的是，道指仍然在2個月趨勢線的支撐位找到了支撐。這當然是鼓舞人心的。因為一旦大盤穩定下來，就可以引誘撿便宜的買家重新回到股市。支撐位約在132000-12700點，阻力位約為14000點。

和其他股指類似，上週對納指，繼而科技股投資者來說也是個災難。 雖然如此，如果投資者使用了我們的“Cubes Speculator”專有交易程序，不但能夠避免此次災難，還可以盈利。

(Click here to enlarge)

從上圖可以看出，7月24日的信號在7月26日這一天觸發並同時被確認。這是非常重要的，因為它極大地提高了此次交易的成功率。而且因此，納指在7 月27日週五的時候，連續第二個交易日暴跌，跌幅超過2%。 因此，如果按照這一系統交易，任何期權投資者上週都可能獲得三位數的收益。

那麼，接下來會如何呢？ 就該體系而言，股市已經出現了短期的超賣現象，理應出現一次反彈。而這可以當作一次拋售的機會。

總結：繼上週拋盤之後，關於“熊市”的說法出現了不少。當前，我們不可能知道熊市是否已經開始， 但密切關注金融板塊及其重要，因為正如之前曾經說過的那樣：“銀行股怎麼走， 股市就怎麼跟”。

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday July 30, 2007.

Needless to say, last week was definitely a challenging week in the stock market with the major indices posted an average lost of 5% for the week amid a growing concern about the financial melt down.

(Click here to enlarge)

As you can see, the Bank Index (BKX) is about 9% lower since our bearish discussion on the sector a couple weeks ago – see “Watch-out for a correction” July 18, 2007. Technically speaking, a decline to below last week low indicates that the sector could be entering a secular bear market। And this is exactly what the bears need.

Let’s take a look at the major indices charts:

(Click here to enlarge)

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame. Last week decline had bought the board market index back to the area of moving average and early spring bullish breakout support around 1460. As mentioned, the overall technical outlook had taken a turn for the worse after last week sell-off; though, the bulls shall prevail as long as the index holds above this level.

(Click here to enlarge)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame. Unlike the S&P, the blue-chips index still manages to hold support at the two-month trendline support. This is of course encouraging because it could help to lure bargain hunters back to the market once the index stabilizes. Support is about 13200-12700. Resistant is about 14000.

Similar to its peers, last week was also “disaster” for the NASDAQ and hence, tech investors. Although, they could have not only escaped this disaster but also made some money if they’ve used the simple (in term of user friendly) but very precise (in term of predicting power) “Cubes Speculator” proprietary trading program.

(Click here to enlarge)

As you can see from the above chart, the July 24 signal was triggered and confirmed on the same day – July 26, 2007. This is very important because it had drastically increased the probability success with the trade. And so, on Friday the July 27, the NASDAQ market plunged for the second straight session, down more than 2%. With that said, any option traders could have posted a triple digits gain to their portfolio last week if they were traded in favor of the system.

So what’s next? As far as this system concern, market had reached a short-term oversold and is due for a bounce, which can be taken as a selling opportunity।

Bottom line: there were a number of “bear market” chatters after last week’s sell-off. At this stage, it’s impossible to know whether the bear market has begun, but we think it’s important to pay attention to the financial sector because, as mentioned, “as goes the bank, so goes the tape”.

Until next time, good luck.

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

“Trading the Market” Bulletin for $ July 30, 2007.

“Cubes Speculator” Bulletin for $ July 30, 2007.

Daily Stock pick for $ July 30, 2007

這是Capital Essence對2007年7月27日(週五)的市場前瞻分析。

週四股市暴跌，平均跌幅達2.0%。許多交易者，包括本人，都被拋賣的規模震驚了——道指盤中一度下跌449點(跌幅3.3%)，最後“神秘買家” 出現，收復了大約1.0%的失地。市場傳聞稱，美國政府——也就是所謂的“暴跌保護小組(Plunge Protection Team)”，由美國前總統裡根在1987年股崩之後成立——是昨天尾盤反彈的主力。如果真是這樣，那麼“黑色週五”也許能夠得以避免。

上面說過，週四的下跌規模令人震驚，儘管並非不可預知。下面是我們“Cubes Speculator Bulletin”在週二貼出的圖表之一：

(Click here to enlarge)

可以看出，我們的“Cubes Speculator”專有交易程序在暴跌發生前兩天已經針對納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ)發出了售出信號。如果你根據這個系統來交易，那麼昨天就可以在QQQQ期權交易中獲利幾百個百分點。

來看主要股指：

(Click here to enlarge)

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。可以看出，週四的交易在規模、市場基本面以及情緒等方面與2007年2月27日非常接近，然而這些超出了本專欄的討論範疇。眼下我們能說的只是：週二暴跌之後，整體的技術面形勢已經惡化，但只要該指數能夠保持在1460點上方，多頭就仍將佔據上風。

(Click here to enlarge)

上面是道指的短期日線圖。與標普500指數相似，道指昨天也下跌了2%以上，儘管尚未跌破約為13200點的兩個月橫向支撐。我們說過，只要該指數能夠保持在這個水平之上，牛市就未遭破壞。短期支撐位約為13200點，短期阻力位約為14020點。

總結：上面說過，週四的狀況與2007年2月27日非常相似。如果歷史可以作為參考，那麼今天就可以看到反彈，緊隨其後則可能是築底或盤整時期，再往後……向上！簡而言之，不過是又一次股市歷史上“讓人嚇破膽”的暴跌而已，這一次同樣會過去的！

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s Note: The following article was written by Michelle Mai of Capital Essence. It has been reproduced with permission for the benefit of the S.M.R community.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday July 27, 2007.

Equity market rolled over Thursday with an average lost of 2.0%.  A lot of traders, including yours truly, got shocked by the magnitude of today sell-off – the blue-chips index (Dow Jones Industrial Index) was down as much as 449 points (-3.3%) before a “mysterious buyer” stepped in and recouped about 1.0%.  There were chatters that the US government, a.k.a. “Plunge Protection Team”, founded by the former US president Ronald Reagan after the ’87 crash, was the master mind behind the late day bounce.  If this was true, then we might be able to escape the “black Friday”.

As noted above, the magnitude of Thursday’s decline was shocking though it isn’t unpredictable.  Below is one of the charts posted on our Tuesday “Cubes Speculator Bulletin”:

(Click here to enlarge)

As you can see, our “Cubes Speculator” proprietary trading program had flashed the sell signal on the NASDAQ-100 Index ETF (QQQQ) two days before the plunge.  With that said, if you had traded in favor of this system, then you could have taken home a couple hundred percentage gains today on the QQQQ options.

Let’s take a look at the major indices:

(Click here to enlarge)

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.  As you can see, Thursday trading action was very similar to that of the February 27, 2007 in terms of magnitude, market fundamental and sentiment.   Although, it’s beyond the scope of this newsletter to discuss these terms.  At this stage, all we can say is that the overall technical outlook had taken a turn for the worse after Thursday sell-off; though, the bulls shall prevail as long as the index holds above the 1460 level.

(Click here to enlarge)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.   Similar to the S&P 500, the blue-chips index also plunged more than 2% today though yet violated the two-month lateral support about 13200.  As mentioned, the bull case remains intact as long as the index holds above this level.  Short-term support is about 13200.  Short-term resistant is about 14020.

Bottom line: as noted above, Thursday trading action was very similar to that of the February 27, 2007.  If history is any guide, then we’d see a rebound tomorrow, which is likely to be followed by a basing or consolidation period, and then…up we go!  In short, just like any other “heart breaking” decline in market history, this too shall past!

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

1. Bearish bets on Nasdaq hit  high

2. JP Morgan Asset Management has become the largest hedge fund manager in the world

3. Easy comes, easy goes
4. Stuffs like this usually come out at market tops
5. No magic formula for market crashes?

“Trading the Market” Bulletin for $ July 27, 2007.

Daily Swing List for $ July 27, 2007

“Cubes Speculator” Bulletin for $ July 27, 2007.

這是Capital Essence對2007年7月26日(週四)的前瞻性技術分析。

我們在昨天的技術前瞻中說過，“撿便宜的買家最早可能會在今天偷襲華爾街”果然，週三股市全面高收。事實上，週三的市場表現與我們在週二晚間 “Cubes Speculator Bulletin”中預計的也一致——“從技術面看，納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ)經過週二的拋售已經處於短期超賣狀態，因此，我們預計今天將反彈至49.60至49.80美元區間。”週三QQQQ果然高開，盤中最高達到49.67美元。

值得注意的是，金融股週三表現非常出色：

我們以前說過，金融股自從我記事以來就是市場的風向標，因此你應該密切關注它們的動向。再強調一遍：銀行股怎麼走，股市就怎麼跟！

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數在成功考驗50天均線附近的支撐區間之後，出現了不錯的反彈。我們說過，這是一個非常重要的區間，因此應該密切加以關注。短期阻力位約為1555點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。與標普500指數相似，該指數也在考驗50天均線附近的支撐位之後漂亮地反彈了。短期支撐位約為13600，短期阻力位約為14020點。

總結：我們在前幾天文章中討論過的“超買盤整”以及“逢低買進”如今均已成為現實。下一步會如何演變？技術面而言，上行應該是阻力最小的。因此，只要主要股指中大多數保持在6月低點之上，我們就堅持看漲的立場。

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s Note: The following article was written by Michelle Mai of Capital Essence. It has been reproduced with permission for the benefit of the S.M.R community.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday July 26, 2007.

We’ve opined right here in our previous Market Outlook that “bargain hunters could raid the Street as soon as tomorrow” – see “Snap Back Bounce” July 25, 2007; equity market closed higher across the board Wednesday. As a matter of fact, Wednesday trading action was also consistent with what we’ve predicted in our Tuesday evening “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” – “technically speaking the “cubes” had reached a short-tem oversold condition after Tuesday sell-off and we’re, therefore, expecting a rebound into the $49.60-80 area tomorrow.” The NASDAQ-100 Index ETF (QQQQ) opened in a positive tone Wednesday and hit as high as $49.67.

It worth notice that the financial stocks did pretty well in Wednesday rebound (see chart below).

As mentioned, the financial stocks have been the “tells” for as long as I can remember and hence, they should be on your trading radar. Again, as goes the bank, so goes the tape!

Let’s take a look at major indices:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. As expected, the board market index rebound nicely followed the successful test of support around the 50-day moving average area. As mentioned, this is a very important zone and it should be on your radar. Short-term resistant is about 1555.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. Similar to the S&P 500, the blue-chips index also rebound nicely followed the test of support around the 50-day moving average area. Short-term support is about 13600. Short-term resistant is about 14020.

Bottom line: now that both of the “overbought correction” and “buy the dip” scenarios that we’ve discussed in the previous Market Outlooks had played out nicely, what’s next? Technically speaking, the upside should be given the benefit of the doubts. With that said, we shall hang on to the bullish stance as long as the majority of major indices hold above June’s low.

Until next time, good luck.

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Daily Swing List for $ July 26, 2007

“Trading the Market” Bulletin for $ July 26, 2007.