The Dow up more than 100 points prior to the FOMC announcement. What’s going on?

Topping today headline was news that General Motors Corp (GM), a Dow component, reported a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss and said overseas sales helped to alleviate weakness in the U.S. market. Its shares rose more than 12%, their biggest one-day advance since May 2005. Just so that you know, initially profiled in April 07 “Swing Trader Bulletin”, GM has gained about 13% and remains well positioned.

As we’ve noted in the previous Market Outlook, smart money continues to rotate into tech stocks. This, in fact, was exactly what the members of our “Swing Trader Bulletin” been doing in the past couple of weeks. Yes, we’re always early though it’s better to be early than sorry! Initially profiled on March 12, Google Inc (GOOG) gained more than 32%.

Initially profiled on March 10, Ariba Inc (ARBA) gained more than 33%.

Initially profiled on April 1, Amdocs Ltd (DOX) gains about 12% and remains well position.

Retails and medical instruments stocks are also doing very well. Initially profiled in April 15 “Swing Trader Bulletin”, Big Lots Inc (BIG) has gained more than 25% and remains well positioned.

And so BDX. Initially profiled in April 21, Becton Dickinson & Co (BDX) advances for 6 straight days and remains well positioned.

These are just couples of many successful trades that our member had enjoyed recently. After all, aren’t you glad you subscribed?

P.S. Take advantage of the 30 days special trial [new member only]. Join the group of elite traders and receiving these daily trading ideas, click here to subscribe.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday April 30, 2008.

As expected, stocks drifting sideways Tuesday as investors await the FOMC announcement on interest tomorrow. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.3% and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost nearly 0.4%. Though do not let the quiet day fool you. The most significant part of the day was to see money quietly coming out of commodities and commodities related stocks like gold and energy and into tech stocks.

Chart 1.1 – World gold index (daily).

The yellow metal lost about 50 points immediately followed our bearish comment on the commodity on April 21. While seemingly vulnerable for further short-term loss, we see no convincing evidence that the long-term bull market in commodity is over. As mentioned, the most obvious level to watch is the 200-day moving average – it’s a good place where bargain hunters often place their bets. In addition, the relative strength index indicator, or RSI, also suggests that commodity is pretty much oversold in a medium-term basis – a condition that precursor to a meaning rebound.

Despite the overall weakness, high beta stocks like Google Inc (GOOG), Baidu.com Inc (BIDU), Research In Motion Ltd (RIMM) and Apple Inc (AAPL) have broken out to multi-month highs in Tuesday trading session. This is a clear sign that some smart money is positioning themselves for a rotation out of commodities and into tech. The tech-heavy NASDAQ composite index gained about 1.7 points for the day.

Chart 1.2 – NASDAQ composite index (daily).

As you can see, tech stocks have been outperformed the S&P since late March. This is bullish though the bulls won’t have any cases until they manage to take out resistance at the six-month falling trend-line, now at 2450. This, if hurdle and sustain, will trigger all sorts of stops, so to speak, and hence has the potential to push prices into the area of 200-day moving average, about 2530. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below immediate support around the 2360 level can wreck the current outlook.

The slide in commodities and energy prices dragged down the board market. The S&P lost 0.39% as a result.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The index continues basing sideway just beneath resistance. As mentioned, while a majority of short-term indicators favor a break to the upside, the bears still have the benefit of the doubts until we see a sustain breakout above key resistance at the area of November’s low, about 1406. Although, fake-out – a break above 1406 and back below it – is not uncommon in FED days. That being said, chances are we’ll see a few false moves in both directions in a next couple of days. Key support is at the area of 50-day moving average, now at 1345.

In summary: it seems to us that the market is in need of a meaningful catalyst to overcome the key resistance levels. Hopefully tomorrow FOMC announcement will do the trick.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月30日(週三)的市場技術分析。

恰如我們所料，昨天由於投資者等待聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)在今日公佈利率政策，大盤窄幅橫向運行。整個交易日道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌 0.3%，標普500指數下跌近0.4%。不過我們不要被表面上的風平浪靜所欺騙，昨天的行情最引人注目的一點就是，資金正悄悄地從黃金、能源等商品及相關個股撤出，流向科技股。

圖1.1 世界黃金指數(日線圖)

自從我們4月21日對黃金作出看跌評論以來，黃金指數立即下跌了大約50個點。儘管短期內金價還有可能進一步下挫，不過我們並無明確證據斷言商品的大牛市已經終結。正如我們上次提到的，我們最應該關注的位置是200日均線，很多投資者都會選擇在這個位置抄底。另外，相對強弱指標(RSI)也顯示黃金中期內嚴重超賣，預計接下來會有一波有力反彈。

儘管大盤萎靡不振，昨天谷歌(GOOG)、百度(BIDU)、Research In Motion(RIMM)和蘋果(AAPL)等高β值個股盤中卻突破至數月來新高。這是一個明顯的跡象，說明聰明錢正在商品和科技之間進行板塊輪動。昨天科技股占主導的納斯達克綜合指數上漲大約1.7個點。

圖1.2 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

我們可以看到，納指從3月末以來動能比標普更為強勁。這是看漲的，不過在納指攻佔2450點附近的6個月下降趨勢線阻力之前，多頭不會有太大機會。相反，如果納指堅定突破長期趨勢線，將觸發大量止損，其激發的動能有可能將指數推向2530點附近的200日均線區域。在目前形勢下，納指只有堅定跌破 2360點附近的緊鄰支撐位，才可能逆轉目前的看漲態勢。

商品和能源價格的下跌也拖累了大盤，標普昨日下挫0.39%。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨日指數繼續在水平阻力位下方盤整。正如我們提到的，儘管大量短期指標都支持指數向上突破，但是在指數堅定站上1406點附近的11月低點關鍵阻力之前，空頭依然掌握著主導權。而且，在聯儲公告發佈日，出現“假突破”也是很常見的，也就是說不排除標普突破1406點又跌回下方的可能。總而言之，在未來幾個交易日出現一些“騙線”的漲跌是不足為奇的。關鍵支撐位在50日均線，目前在1345點。

總結：在我們看來，大盤要攻破重大阻力位，需要有重大利好的推動。今天下午聯儲的公告有望成為這樣的催化劑。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday April 29, 2008.

Stocks finished lower Monday, giving up early gains sparked by Mars’ $23 billion buyout of Wrigley (WWY), as investors jittered ahead of the start of the two-day Fed policy meeting. Also contributed to the overall weakness was a record high energy price - U.S. light crude oil for June delivery rose 23 cents to settle at $118.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after hitting a record $119.93 earlier in electronic trading. For the day, both of the Dow Jones industrial average and the broader market index, Standard & Poor’s 500, lost a few points to end at 12871 and 1396 respectively. Monday’s trading action had once again confirmed the validity of the “sideway consolidation” scenario that we’ve traced out right here in last week’s Market Outlook when we wrote that: “until proven otherwise expect the S&P to drift sideway within the 1370-1400 trading range.”

Speaking of the FED, the bond market believe that the FED will cut rates a quarter point and signal that the period of cutting rates is coming to a close.

Despite the overall weakness, shares of Big Lots Inc (BIG) jumped almost 4% on heavy volume after JPMorgan upgraded the closeout retailer to “Overweight” from “Neutral”.

Chart 1.1 – Big Lots Inc (daily).

Initially profiled in April 15 “Swing Trader Bulletin”, BIG has gained more than 20% and remains well positioned. Technically speaking, Monday’s break to the upside is bullish and hence confirmed the test of key resistance around the $30 level. This, if hurdle and sustained, will trigger an acceleration run to 2007 high, about $35. In short, the near-term outlook remains bullish barring a close below key support at the area of previous bullish breakout point, about $24.

Let’s take a look at the major indices:

Chart 1.2 – Dow Jones industrial average (daily).

Prices drifting sideway just beneath key resistances at the area of 200-day moving average and December 2007 low, about 13070, (see chart). Volume remains low through out last week’s rally. This is indicative that professional or smart money is still sitting on the sideline. And this is bearish for the market on the long-term. That being said, the bulls will not have any cases until they manage to take out key resistances around the 13100 area. Immediate support is about 12650.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

It worth noticing that the index managed to breach the 1400 mark – an important sentiment level – during Monday’s trading session though the rally eventually frizzle out and the index close the day with a slight loss. While Monday’s trading action wasn’t impressive, it might be the first wave of a series of rally attempts that have the potential to pop prices through key resistance at the area of November’s low, about 1406, and into the 200-day moving average, about 1435 – though this is not expected tomorrow. Key support is at the area of 50-day moving average, now at 1345.

In summary: Monday’s choppy and low volume trading session is indicative that despite recent strength, smart money is sitting on the sideline. So it wouldn’t surprise us to see the holding pattern carries on until Wednesday’s Fed decision.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月29日(週二)的市場技術分析。

週一美股略有下挫。上午受私募股權基金Mars以230億美元收購箭牌(WWY)的消息刺激，大盤有所上揚，不過尾盤部分投資者選擇了逢高出貨，因為即將召開的聯儲會議將帶來不確定因素。另外昨天油價再創新高也是一個負面因素，紐約商品交易所6月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油價格在電子交易中一度達到 119.93美元，最後上漲23美分收於每桶118.75美元。昨天道瓊斯工業平均指數和標普500指數均下跌數點，分別收於12871點和1396 點。昨天大盤的走勢同我們在上周的市場前瞻中提出的“橫向整理”的判斷非常吻合，我們當時寫道：“如果不出意外，預計標普將在1370-1400點之間的區域橫向震盪。”

關於今天的聯儲會議，從債券市場的反應來看，投資者預期聯儲將會降息25個基點，並顯示聯儲這一輪降息週期已接近尾聲。

儘管整體股市走軟，但是昨天清倉貨零售商Big Lots(BIG)股價放量大漲將近4%，原因是JP摩根將其股票評級從“中立”調升至“買入”。

圖1.1 Big Lots(日線圖)

我們最早在4月15日的Swing Trader Bulletin中對Big Lots作出了推薦，至今該股漲幅已經超過20%，而且還有上漲空間。從技術上講，週一的向上突破是一個看漲信號，確認了向30美元附近關鍵阻力作出測試的走勢。如果股價能夠堅定突破30美元的阻力位，將激發強大動能，加速向35美元左右的2007年高點進發。簡而言之，除非該股收盤跌破24美元左右的前期向上突破位的關鍵支撐，短期態勢依然看漲。

再來看看各大股指的情況：

圖1.2 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

從圖上我們可以看到，最近道指一直在200日均線和2007年12月低點(大約13070點)兩大阻力位下方橫向運行。在上周的走高行情中，成交活躍度一直很低，這說明專業投資者和“聰明錢”觀望氣氛比較濃重。這對市場的長期走勢是一個看跌信號。由此看來，在道指成功佔領13100點附近的重大阻力位之前，市場多頭並沒有太大的機會。緊鄰支撐位大約在12650點。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

值得注意的是，昨天標普盤中成功突破1400點的重要心理關口，可惜最終漲幅出現回落，收盤還略有下挫。昨天的行情可謂平淡無奇，我們預計接下來標普還將多次向1406點的11月低點阻力和1435點的200日均線阻力發起挑戰，當然不會在今天。關鍵支撐位在50日均線區域，目前位於1345 點。

總結：週一的地量震盪行情說明，儘管大盤近期走勢不錯，但聰明錢仍採取觀望的立場。因此在週三聯儲公告發佈之前，大盤繼續橫向運行是在情理之中的。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday April 28, 2008.

As expected, stocks opened lower Friday though the market managed to overcome early weaknesses to close above the zero line as investors set aside worries about surging energy prices and Microsoft’s underwhelming forecast, and picked up a variety of “cheap” financial stocks. For the day, The Dow Jones industrial average added 0.3% to finish at 12891 - its highest close in nearly four months.

Oil reached new record high Friday amid concern that strikes at a BP P.L.C (BP) refinery in Scotland and an unrelated facility in Nigeria could jeopardize production. U.S. light crude oil for June delivery jumped $2.46 on supply concerns to settle at $118.42 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Chart 1.1 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

Technically speaking, Friday’s break to the upside is bullish. It broke the three-day consolidation pattern and helped setting the stage for a test of an important sentiment 120 level. In short, the medium-term outlook remains bullish barring a close below last Thursday’s low at 114.40.

Unsurprisingly, tech stocks were underselling pressure Friday amid weakness in shares of Microsoft (MSFT), which felt more than 6% in response to the lousy fourth quarter forecast.

Chart 1.2 – Microsoft Corp (daily).

As predicted, the stock dropped hard Friday and tested key support around the $29.50 level. While the action is bearish, the late-day upward push suggests that this level might hold for awhile. Expect an oversold consolidation in the days ahead. Critical support is about 28.50. Immediate resistance is about $31.

The financial sector was an outperformed Friday amid an upbeat earning report from American Express (AXP). In addition, shares of Merrill Lynch & Co (MER) also closed significantly higher after the Financial Times reported that Merrill is in discussions with private equity firm TPG regarding possible investments in the investment bank.

Chart 1.3 – KBW Bank index (daily).

The sector has been on better ground for the last couple of days as investors have started to bet that the worst of the credit market crisis is over. It seems poised for a test of key price level at the area of the seven-month falling trend-line resistance, now at 87. At this moment, it’s impossible to know for sure whether this level can be taken out or not though a sustain breakout above it will break the “lower highs” pattern going back to October 2007. Critical support remains at 75.

Good news surrounding financial stocks had helped to send the board market higher with the S&P 500 index added 9 points or 0.65% to close at 1397.

Chart 1.4 – S&P 500 index (daily).

Friday’s trading action had confirmed the validity of the “sideway consolidation” scenario that we’ve traced out right here in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “Thursday’s trading action didn’t have the characteristic of a bullish breakout day – it’s rather a continuation the pullback consolidation pattern that starts on Monday April 21^st. Of course, this won’t last forever though until proven otherwise expect the index to drift sideway within the 1370-1400 trading range.”

A milestone here was a crack the old February high at 1396. While the action is bullish, there are quite a number of tough barriers to confront. The first one isn’t very far, it’s the November’s low, about 1406. And even it can overcome that, the 200-day moving average is going to be an even tougher level to encounter. Given the extreme overbought condition, we doubt that the market can overcome it within this rally.

Right now, the most obvious level to watch is the key price resistance at November’s low, about 1406. This, if hurdle and sustain on a retest, will break the “lower highs” pattern going back to October 2007 and hence suggesting higher prices heading into the second half of the year. Key support is at the area of 50-day moving average, now at 1345.

In summary: this is decision time for the market. Despite last week’s strength, technical evidence favoring both bulls and bears. Given the action in the financial complex of late, it appears that fast money is being put back to work on hopes of a turnaround. This is bullish. However, the bulls have got to pay some respects to the overhead resistance at S&P 1406. Until we see a sustain break above this level on “good” volume, the bears still have the loudest growl.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月28日(週一)的市場技術分析。

恰如我們所料，上週五美股開盤後遭遇賣壓，不過投資者成功克服能源價格飆升和微軟平庸財測帶來的憂慮情緒，下午在金融股觸底反彈行情的帶領下，大盤成功收復上午失地。整個交易日道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲0.3%，收於12891點，為近4個月來最高收盤。

上週五，由於投資者擔心英國石油公司(BP)一家蘇格蘭煉油廠的罷工事件和尼日利亞石油設施遇襲將對全球石油供應產生不利影響，油價創出新高。紐約商品交易所6月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油大漲2.46美元，收於每桶118.42美元。

圖1.1 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

從技術上講，上週五的向上突破是看漲的。這一走勢突破了3日來的整理態勢，為進一步上攻、測試120美元的心理關口奠定了基礎。總而言之，除非油價收盤跌破上週四低點，114.40美元，否則中期趨勢依然看漲。

上週五，微軟(MSFT)由於第四財季業績目標令投資者大感失望，股價大跌6%以上，並給科技股帶來賣壓，拖累納值下挫。

圖1.2 微軟(日線圖)

恰如我們所料，上週五微軟股價大跌，測試29.50美元附近的關鍵支撐。整個走勢是不利的，不過尾盤的小幅回升說明這一支撐或許還能維持一下，預計未來數日有可能出現一波超賣整理行情。重大支撐位大約在28.50美元，緊鄰阻力位大約在31美元。

上週五金融板塊表現優於大盤，主要原因是美國運通(AXP)公佈的利好財報，同時美林(MER)股價也大幅飆升，因為根據《金融時報》報道，私募股權基金TPG正與美林商談，有可能向美林提供注資。

圖1.3 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

過去幾個交易日，由於投資者普遍認為信貸危機的低潮已經過去，金融板塊大幅反彈，目前似乎已經準備好向87點的7個月下降趨勢線阻力發起測試。目前我們還無法預知這一關鍵點位能否被突破，不過一旦指數堅定站上這一阻力，將打破從2007年10月以來“高點更低”的不利形態。重大支撐位仍然在75 點。

金融股的利好消息也助推了大盤，標普500指數上漲9個點，收於1397點，漲幅0.65%。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

上週五標普的走勢同我們在當日的市場前瞻中提出的“橫向整理”的判斷如合符節，我們當時提到：“從技術上講，週四的走勢並不具備『向上突破』的特徵，反而只是4月21日開始的整理行情的延續。當然，這一局面不會永久持續下去。不過如果不出現意外的話，我們預計指數將繼續在1370-1400點的區間震盪。”

上週五行情中最關鍵的一點是攻克了1396點的2月份前期高點阻力。這是一個看漲信號，不過我們也不應過於樂觀，因為上方仍面臨重重阻礙。第一重障礙已經非常近了，那就是去年11月的低點阻力，大約1406點。就算標普能夠過這一關，接下來的200日均線阻力可能更加易守難攻。再說現在市場已經嚴重超買，我們覺得這一波反彈可能很難完成這一艱巨任務。

目前最應該關注的位置便是11月低點的阻力位，大約1406點。如果這一位置被堅定突破，將打破從2007年10月起開始形成的“高點更低”的形態，從而預示著下半年會有較好的行情。關鍵支撐位在50日均線附近，目前在1345點。

總結：現在是市場做決定的時刻。大盤經過上周的上漲之後，目前技術面多頭空頭誰也不佔優。從最近金融股的強勁反彈來看，似乎快錢正在大舉抄底，看多後市。這是一個看漲信號。但是另一方面，標普在1406點面臨重大阻力，多頭也不可能一帆風順。總而言之，除非標普放量突破這一點位，否則空頭依然佔據主導。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday April 25, 2008.

Stocks closed higher across the board Thursday with the Dow Jones industrial average added around 0.7% to finish at 12848 and the broader, Standard & Poor’s 500, index added 0.6% - the S&P posted a much bigger gain, reached as high as 1397 in the early afternoon – to close at 1388. As matter of fact, today trading action was very consistent to what we’ve offered in the previous Market Outlook: “the S&P seems poised for a test of an important psychological level, around the 1400 area. However, the wobbly readings from indicators like the short-term slow stochastic suggest that, more likely than not, this test is going to fail.”

Contribute the overall optimism were a stronger dollar and upbeat earnings from Ford Motor Co (F) and Apple Inc (AAPL). Speaking of earning, shares of Microsoft Corp (MSFT) were under selling pressure, down almost 4% in Thursday evening trading, after the world’s biggest software maker reported a rise in earnings that beat expectations but its outlook disappointed investors.

Chart 1.1 – Microsoft Corp (daily).

Do not let the above chart fool you, the stock down about 4% to about $30.20 in after hours trading. Technically speaking, the major resistance at November-December’s low, about $32.63, had been a very important line in the sand. And despite Thursday’s strength, the line remains untouched! This should tell us the strength of the stock going into this evening earning report – very weak, of course! In addition, the short-term RSI indicator is indicating that the stock is extremely overbought – a condition that’s also precursor to a pullback consolidation. So, it wouldn’t surprise us to see a test of immediate support at previous bullish breakout, about $29.50, in the days ahead.

It worth noticing that a stronger dollar has triggered an interesting market rotation: money is coming out of commodities and commodity related stocks and going into financials and home builders. The PHLX Housing Sector Index rose more than 3% while the Amex Gold Bugs Index dropped more than 4% as results.

Chart 1.2 – PHLX Housing Sector Index (daily).

The housing is doing very well, up about 13 points or 10% immediately followed our bullish comment on the sector on March 12. While Thursday’s trading action is bullish and suggesting further short-term gain, the upside could be limited to February’s high, about 157. What’s going on? As you can see, we’ve approached this level and failed at least three times since last December – a lot of good money have been burned at this level before and there is no clear evidence that suggests it won’t happen again. With that said, from a long-term perspective, the bulls will not have any cases unless prices break above the 157 level. This, if clear and sustain, will break the pattern of lower lows that goes back into early 2006 and help setting the stage for s test of 2006 low, about 190.

As noted above, the bullion took a beating Thursday amid a stronger greenback. In fact, recent trading action had confirmed the validity of the “short-term bearish” scenario that we’ve offered in our April 21 Market Outlook when we wrote that: “Friday’s [April 18^th] break to the downside had completed the bearish lower-high pattern. In addition, the on balance volume indicator, or OBV, also traded below its 20-period moving average and hence confirmed the bearish trend…expects further short-term losses.”

Chart 1.3 – Amex Gold Bugs Index (daily).

Thursday’s massive sell-off had pushed prices into key support at the area of the 200-day moving average. Not only that this is a pretty strong support – it’s good place where bargain hunters often place their bets – the short-term RSI indicator is also indicating an extreme oversold condition. So, it wouldn’t surprise us to see a technical rebound in the days ahead. Immediate resistance is about 425.

Heavy buying interest in the financial and home builder stocks had helped to push the board market higher. The S&P up about 9 points to 1388.

Chart 1.4 – S&P 500 index (daily).

As expected, the index tested the important psychological 1400 level today. Not only that it failed to close above this level – this is also expected – Thursday’s trading volume was not very encouraging; it’s just about average. Technically speaking, today trading action didn’t have the characteristic of a “bullish breakout” day – it’s rather a continuation the pullback consolidation pattern that starts on Monday April 21^st. Of course, this won’t last forever though until proven otherwise expect the index to drift sideway within the 1370-1400 trading range. As mentioned, it’s critical that price stays above the 1370 level. This, if violate and sustain, will increase the odds for a retest of the 50-day moving average, about 1345 now.

In summary: while Thursday’s trading action is bullish, it doesn’t have the characteristic of a “bullish breakout” day. In short, it’s good but no firework!

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月25日(週五)的市場技術分析。

週四美股全線高收，道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲約0.7%至12848點，而覆蓋面更廣的標普500指數上揚0.6%，收於1388點。不過標普昨日盤中漲幅更大，下午剛開始時一度沖高至1397點。事實上，昨天大盤的走勢同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中所作的判斷非常吻合，我們當時寫道：“標普似乎馬上要測試1400點的重要心理點位。不過從短期慢速隨機指標的走向來看，測試出現失敗的可能性要更大一些。”

導致昨天市場出現樂觀情緒的主要消息，一是美元匯率走高，二是福特汽車(F)和蘋果(AAPL)發佈樂觀財報。另外昨天微軟(MSFT)也公佈了財報，儘管盈利所有上升並超出預期，但是公司發佈的財測數字令投資者感到失望，微軟股票遭到拋售，昨日盤後交易中股價下挫近4%。

圖1.1 微軟(日線圖)

不要被上面的圖騙了，因為微軟在昨天盤後又下跌了4%，大約到30.20美元。從技術上講，32.63美元左右的11月和12月低點的重大阻力位作用非常強大。儘管股價週四有所上揚，但仍未觸到這一位置。這顯然說明微軟股價在昨日盤後財報公佈前動能便非常疲弱！另外，短期相對強弱指標(RSI) 也顯示該股已經嚴重超買，因此未來數天股價測試前期突破位的緊鄰支撐是很有可能的，大約29.50美元。

值得注意的是，昨天美元的走強導致資金的流向發生改變：資金從商品和商品相關股票中流出，流進金融股和地產股。昨天費城股票交易所房地產指數 (PHLX Housing Sector Index)上漲3%以上，而美國證交所黃金板塊指數(Amex Gold Bugs Index)跌幅超過4%。

圖1.2 費城股票交易所房地產指數(日線圖)

最近房地產表現不錯，自從我們3月12日對板塊作出看漲評論以來，指數已經上漲了約13個點，漲幅10%。週四的走勢是看漲的，意味著短期內還將進一步走高，上方空間在2月高點，大約157點。我們從圖上可以看到，房地產指數已經多次接近這一位置，從去年12月開始至少已經3次測試失敗，大量資金都在這個位置被套，而且目前尚無明顯跡象表明故事不會重演。由此看來，從長期的角度講，除非指數站上157點，多頭便沒有太多機會。相反，如果指數堅定突破這一阻力，將改變從2006年初以來“低點更低”的不利形態，有可能出現測試2006年低點(大約190點)的走勢。

前面提到了，受美元匯率走高影響，黃金遭受重挫。事實上，昨天黃金的走勢證實了我們在4月21日的市場前瞻中提出的“短期看跌”的判斷，我們當時寫道：“週五(4月18日)的向下突破完成了看跌的『高點更低』的形態。另外，平衡交易量指標(On Balance Volume,OBV)同樣低於20日均線，說明還有下跌的要求……短期內將進一步下跌。”

圖1.3 美國證交所黃金板塊指數(日線圖)

週四的大跌使得價格跌破了200日均線的關鍵支撐。這是一個非常強有力的支撐，很多投資者都會選擇在這個位置抄底，而且短期相對強弱指標也顯示嚴重超賣，因此未來數天非常有可能出現一波技術反彈。緊鄰阻力位大約在425點。

金融板塊和地產板塊的走高帶動了大盤的上揚，標普上漲9個點至1388點。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

恰如我們所料，昨天標普對1400點的心理關口作出測試，而測試出現失敗也在我們預料之中。同時昨天的成交量也不是特別高，僅略微高於均值。從技術上講，昨天的走勢並不具備“向上突破”的特徵，反而只是4月21日開始的整理行情的延續。當然，這一局面不會永久持續下去。不過如果不出現意外的話，我們預計指數將繼續在 1370-1400點的區間震盪。我們曾提到，標普堅守1370點的位置非常關鍵，一旦被堅定擊穿，將增加指數向下測試50日均線的可能性，目前大約在 1345點。

總結：週四的走勢是看漲的，但是並不具備“向上突破”行情的特徵。總而言之，形勢有利，但不值得慶祝！

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday April 24, 2008.

As expected, stocks closed slightly higher, in a choppy trading session, as investors chew on the better than expected earning report from Boeing Co (BA) and another meltdown in the financial sector. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 43 points, or 0.3%, to finish at 12763.

Financial stocks were under selling pressure Wednesday largely due to disappointment regarding a massive quarterly loss at Ambac Financial (ABK). The bond insurer plummeted 43% to a new all-time low after the company reported a massive $5.42 per share loss on $1.7 billion in write-downs and a $1.0 billion increase in loan loss provisions. The Street was looking for a much smaller loss of $1.51 per share. And the KBW bank index lost 0.86% as a result.

Chart 1.1 – KBW bank index (daily).

Price continues basing sideway around the area of critical support, about 75. The action is bearish. In addition, the short-term slow stochastic indicator is also trending down, below the signal line, and hence, confirms the strong bearish trend. Right now the most obvious level to watch is the March-April’s closing low, about 75. At this moment, it’s impossible to know for sure that whether this level holds or not though a sustain decline below it will trigger all sorts of stops, so to speak, hence, has the potential to push prices into the area of 2003 low, about 65.

Chart 1.2 – S&P 500 index (daily).

It seems to us that recent pullback found support at the area of last week’s bullish breakout gap (see chart). This is bullish and suggesting a retest of key price resistance around the 1400 level. As mentioned, not only that this is a tough level to overcome, the short-term slow stochastic indicator is suggesting that the market is pretty much overbought. As a matter of fact, the action we’ve seen recently appears to be very similar to the time between the November’s high and April’s low when we saw a quite a number of aggressive sell-offs, which took place immediately after the market registered a series of overbought conditions over a short-period of time (see chart). With all that said, it wouldn’t surprise us to see the test of 1400, if and when it comes, will be met with eager sellers. The index has an immediate support around the 1350 area.

In summary: the S&P seems poised for a test of an important psychological level, around the 1400 area. However, the wobbly readings from indicators like the short-term slow stochastic suggest that, more likely than not, this test is going to fail.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月24日(週四)的市場技術分析。

恰如我們所料，昨天大盤震盪運行、小幅高收，主要的利好消息是波音(BA)超預期的財報，利空消息則來自金融板塊。道瓊斯工業平均指數高收43點，收於12763點，漲幅0.3%。

昨天，主要受Ambac Financial(ABK)公佈季度巨額虧損不利消息的影響，金融股遭遇賣壓。該債券保險商昨日公佈每股虧損5.42美元，主要原因是17億美元的減記和10億美元的壞賬保證金計提，結果週三公司股價暴挫43%，跌入歷史新低。此前華爾街的預計虧損額是每股1.51美元。結果KBW銀行指數下跌 0.86%。

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

銀行指數繼續在75點附近的關鍵支撐區域橫向整理，這一走勢是看跌的。同時，短期慢速隨機指標也繼續下探至信號線下方，說明下行的要求很強烈。目前最應該關注的位置是3月、4月的收盤低點，大約75點。目前我們還無法預知這一支撐能否保住，不過一旦堅定擊穿該支撐，將觸發大量止損，並有可能將價格推向2003年低點區域，大約65點。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

從圖形上看，近期的回調走勢似乎在上周的跳空突破缺口處找到支撐，這是有利的，意味著接下來有可能重新測試1400點附近的關鍵阻力。正如我們提到的，不但這一阻力易守難攻，而且短期慢速隨機指標也顯示市場已經嚴重超買。事實上，這一走勢在過去多次重複，從去年11月高點到今年4月低點之間，每次市場指標顯示短期超買之後，馬上就會出現一波強勁拋盤。由此看來，一旦標普向上測試1400點，遭遇強力賣壓是不足為奇的。指數的緊鄰支撐位大約在 1350點附近。

總結：標普似乎馬上要測試1400點的重要心理點位。不過從短期慢速隨機指標的走向來看，測試出現失敗的可能性要更大一些。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday April 23, 2008.

Stocks stumble out of gate Tuesday with the Dow Jones industrial average lost around 105 points, or 0.82% to finish at 12720. As a matter of fact, Tuesday’s trading action had confirmed the validity of the “pullback consolidation” scenario that we’ve traced out right here in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “it seems to us that Monday’s decline is just a beginning of a modest pullback, which could lasts about 2 to 7 trading sessions.”

Contributed to the overall weakness was a record high energy prices – U.S. light crude oil for May delivery hit an all-time trading high of $119.90 a barrel before pulled back a bit and settle at $119.37, up $1.89, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gains in crude oil prices dragged on the airlines stocks. The Amex Airline Index dropped 12.3% as a result.

Chart 1.1 – Amex Airline Index (daily).

Tuesday’s decline had pushed the airline into the level that had not seen since 2002 – the last bear market bottom. While the action is bearish, the RSI’s positive divergence is indicating that the sector is at or pretty close to a tradable bottom. However, until key resistance at the area of March’s high, about 28, is taken out and held on a retest, we wouldn’t touch the sector.

Tech stocks were also under pressure Tuesday amid a dour profit outlook from Texas Instruments Inc (TXN). The chip maker reported higher quarterly earnings that met estimates though its forecast for current-quarter profit fell short of estimates. Shares dropped almost 6%. And the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 1.29% for the day.

Chart 1.2 – Nasdaq Composite Index (daily).

The index pulled back to the area of immediate support after a test of key resistance around the 2400 level was met with an aggressive wave of selling interest (see chart). Volume also expanded as prices dropped. This is bearish. Right now the most obvious level to watch is last Friday’s bullish breakout gap, about 2350. This is a very important sentiment level that needs to be held to confirm last week’s rally. With that said, a failure to hold above this level will increase the odds for a larger-cycle pullback, which has the potential to push prices into the area of April low, about 2260. The index has a layer of resistance that runs from 2410 to 2480.

As noted above, oil was a major drag on the markets - the boarder market index, S&P 500, lost as much as 19 points or about 1.4% as crude oil spiked just shy of $120 mid-morning. The selling pressure was, however, eased a bit into the close as traders position themselves ahead of tomorrow’s oil inventory and Apple Inc (AAPL) earning reports. For the day, the S&P lost about 12 points or 0.88%.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The index dropped away form the psychological important 1400 level. The slow stochastic indicator also crossed below its signal line today and hence confirmed the bearish trend. Right now the most obvious level to watch is last week’s bullish breakout gap, about 1360. Staying above this level is critical.

In summary: although seemingly vulnerable for further short-term loss, the bulls still have the benefits of the doubts as long as prices hold above S&P 1360.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月23日(週三)的市場技術分析。

週二大盤低開低走，道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌105點至12720點，跌幅0.82%。事實上，昨天大盤的走勢同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的“回調整理”判斷非常吻合，我們當時提到：“在我們看來，週一的下跌可能只是一波回調行情的開始，有可能持續2到7個交易日。”

導致昨天大盤走軟的原因之一是能源價格創出新高，紐約商品交易所5月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油一度上摸每桶119.90美元的歷史高點，收盤小幅回落至119.37美元，上漲1.89美元。原油價格的上漲給航空股形成嚴重壓制，美國證券交易所航空指數暴跌12.3%。

圖1.1 美國證券交易所航空指數(日線圖)

航空板塊經過週二的暴跌，已經跌破了2002年上一次熊市底部的最低點。這一走勢非常不利，不過相對強弱指標(RSI)顯示航空板塊已經處於或非常接近一個可買入底部。不過，在指數測試並攻佔3月高點(大約28點)的關鍵阻力之前，我們不要碰航空股。

受德州儀器(TXN)悲觀的財測數字影響，週二科技股同樣遭遇賣壓。德儀公佈季度盈利有所增長，同市場預期一致，不過對當前季度的預測數字低於市場預期，結果股價下跌近6%。納斯達克綜合指數下挫1.29%。

圖1.2 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

納指在測試2400點附近關鍵阻力的時候遭遇強勁賣壓，回撤至緊鄰支撐位區域。價格的回落也伴隨成交量的放大，這是不利的。目前最應該關注的點位是上週五的跳空突破位，大約2350點。這是一個非常重要的心理點位，堅守這一位置對於確認上周的漲勢是必要的。因此，如果納指跌破這一支撐，出現更大回調的可能性將大為增加，可能將價格推向4月低點區域，大約2260點。指數在2410點到2480點之間有一個阻力帶。

受油價上午幾乎飆升至每桶120美元的拖累，昨天標普500指數一度跌幅擴大至19個點。不過，由於第二天(今天)將公佈原油庫存報告和蘋果(AAPL)財報，昨天尾盤賣壓有所減輕。昨日收盤標普下跌12點，跌幅0.88%。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普從1400點的重要心理點位下探走低，昨天慢速隨機指標也交叉至信號線下方，從而確認了下跌走勢。目前最需要關注的位置是上周的跳空突破位，大約1360點。指數堅守在該位置之上非常關鍵。

總結：儘管短期內進一步下跌的可能性很大，不過只要標普堅守在1360點上方，多頭依然佔據著主導權。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday April 22, 2008.

Yesterday we’ve said that: “with a majority of short-term indicators suggesting an overbought condition as prices challenging key overhead resistance, we expect the upside momentum will soon start to fizzle out.” Stocks ended slightly lower Monday as weaker-than-expected earnings from Bank of America (BAC) gave investors a reason to lock in profits after last week’s big advance. Bank of America, US second largest bank by asset size, behind Citigroup (C), was hit hard by the credit market fallout, with profit in the first quarter falling 77% to 23 cents per share from $1.16 a share a year ago. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expected earnings of 41 cents per share. The stock lost 2.7% while the KBW bank index, or BKX, down 2.74%.

Despite the overall weakness, James River Coal Company (JRCC) jumped 11.85% to $25.76, a new 52-week high. Just so that you know, shares of the coal producer gains more than 56% since featured in our March 26 “Swing trader Bulletin” as a potential buy candidate.

Chart 1.1 – James River Coal Company (daily).

Technically speaking, Monday’s break to the upside is bullish and suggesting a test of key resistance at the area of 2005 low, about $28.64. Immediate support is about $21.20.

As goes the bank so goes the tape, so to speak. Weaknesses in the financial stocks dragged down the board market with the S&P 500 index gave up about 2 points to finish at 1388.17.

Chart 1.2 – S&P 500 index (daily).

Monday’s trading action had confirmed the validity of the “overbought consolidation” scenario that we’ve traced out right here in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “Friday’s massive rally had pushed the S&P directly into the area of overhead resistance. Not only that this is a tough level to overcome, the short-term relative strength index indicator, or RSI, is also indicating an overbought condition. So it wouldn’t surprise us to see a correction, which could be either in price (i.e., lower prices) or in time (i.e., basing sideway), in the days ahead.” It seems to us that Monday’s decline is just a beginning of a modest pullback after last week’s huge gain. In addition, volume also low on a down day. This is bullish and suggesting that a test of the 1400 level will be conducted sooner rather than later. As mentioned, this is a very important sentiment level, which needs to be taken out and sustained [on a retest] to confirm that the “low” is already in place. The index has an immediate support around the 1370 level.

The blue-chips index was also under pressure amid bad news surrounding Bank of America, a Dow component. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 24 points to close at 12825.

Chart 1.3 – Dow Jones industrial average (daily).

The index consolidates around the area of “former resistance now support” level (see chart). The relative strength index indicator, or RSI, crossed below the 70 level today. It’s indicating that the market had entered an overbought consolidation period. Right now the most obvious level to watch is last Friday’s bullish breakout gap, about 12620. This is a very important sentiment level that needs to be held on a retest to confirm last week’s rally. Immediate resistance is at the area of 200-day moving average, about 13100 now.

In summary: it seems to us that Monday’s decline is just a beginning of a modest pullback, which could lasts about 2 to 7 trading sessions.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月22日(週二)的市場技術分析。

在昨天的市場前瞻中我們指出：“大盤徑直逼近上方關鍵阻力，大部分短期指標也顯示超買，因此我們預計上升動能很快就會衰竭。”主要受美國銀行 (BAC)不及預期財報的打壓，投資者紛紛鎖定上周的巨大漲幅、逢高出貨，週一大盤小幅低收。美國銀行是資產規模僅次於花旗(C)的第二大美國銀行，在信貸危機中受到重創，第一財季每股盈利僅23美分，比去年同期的1.16美元下滑77%。湯姆森金融對分析師的調查顯示，市場預期美銀每股盈利41美分。昨日美銀股價下跌2.7%，並拖累KBW銀行指數下挫2.74%。

儘管大盤較為疲軟，James River Coal Company(JRCC)股價卻逆市大漲11.85%，收於25.76美元的52周新高。該股自從我們在3月26日的Swing trader Bulletin中作出買入推薦以來，漲幅已經超過56%。

圖1.1 James River Coal Company(日線圖)

從技術上講，週一的向上突破是一個看漲信號，意味著接下來將測試2005年低點附近的關鍵阻力，大約在28.64美元。緊鄰支撐位大約在21.20美元。

俗話說，銀行往東，大盤不往西。金融股的疲軟給大盤造成拖累，標普500指數下跌約2個點，收於1388.17點。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

週一的行情印證了我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的“超買整理” 的判斷，我們當時提到：“標普上週五的大漲也使得價格逼近上方阻力位。從圖上我們可以看到，這是一個雙重阻力形成的阻力帶，另外，短期相對強弱指標 (RSI)也顯示超買，因此未來數天很可能會出現一波回調行情，或者橫向整理行情。”在我們看來，昨天的小幅下挫有可能只是一波回調行情的開始，因為上周的漲幅實在太大了。另外，昨天的下跌伴隨著量能的萎縮，這是一個看漲信號，意味著指數可能很快將測試1400點的位置。1400點是一個非常重要的心理關口，如果指數重新測試後堅定突破這一點位，那麼便可以確認中期底部已經形成。標普的緊鄰支撐位大約在1370點附近。

美銀作為道指的成份股，其利空消息同樣給道指帶來壓力。道指週一下跌24點，收於12825點。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

從圖上我們可以看到，道指正在一個由前期阻力轉換成的支撐位附近整固。昨天相對強弱指標(RSI)下行至70以下，這說明市場最近處於一個超買整理的階段。目前最應該關注的點位是上週五的跳空突破位，大約12620點。這是一個非常重要的心理點位，堅守這一位置對於確認上周的大漲是十分必要的。緊鄰阻力位在200日均線附近，目前大約在13100點。

總結：在我們看來，週一的微跌可能只是一波回調行情的開始，可能要持續2到7個交易日。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday April 18, 2008.

Stocks stage a late comeback Thursday with strength in financial and select technology shares helping the Dow erased early losses and closed slightly higher, up about 0.01%. Though do not let the flat tape fool you, today gain is pretty decent considering a massive gain of more than 250 points in previous session. It’s bullish and suggesting that the “sell the rally” morality, which was the case in the past couple of months, had been broken. As a matter of fact, today trading session is very consistent to the “bullish” outlook that we’ve offered in the previous Market Outlook.

Merrill Lynch & Co Inc [MER] was one of the most influential stocks on Wednesday. The firm reported a loss of $2.20 per share, which fell $0.21 short of the consensus earnings estimate. It also announced asset backed security write-downs of $1.5 billion and an additional $3.0 billion in write-downs related to financial guarantees. Despite the announcement from Merrill, brokers and investment banks closed significantly higher with Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc [LEH] up 5%, Citigroup [C], Morgan Stanley [MS] and Goldman Sachs Group Inc [GS] up 2-3%. The KBW bank index gained 1.67% as a result.

Chart 1.1 – KBW bank index (daily).

As you can see, the sector moved higher after the tested of key support around the 74 level was met with an aggressive wave of buying. In fact, the action had confirmed the validity of the “oversold rebound” scenario that we’ve traced out in the April 15 Market Outlook when we wrote that: “Monday’s ugly decline had pushed prices into the area of key support at March low, about 74…the medium-term relative strength index indicator, or RSI, is fast approaching the oversold level, it wouldn’t surprise us to see some sort of consolidation around current level.”

Technically speaking, while recent trading action is pretty encouraging, it’s simply a short-term oversold relieve. With that said, the bulls will not have any cases unless they manage to take out key resistance at the area of the six-month falling trend-line, now at 88. This, if hurdle and sustained, will have the potential to push prices into the area of February’s high, about 96.51. Critical support is at the area of March’s low, about 73.22.

Speaking of earning rebound, shares of Google Inc [GOOG] soared more than 15% in extended-hours trading after the giant search engine reported sales and earnings that topped forecasts. The NASDAQ 100 is trading well over a full percentage point higher after hours, and the other broad indexes are up as well.

Chart 1.2 – NASDAQ Composite index (daily).

More likely than not, Friday will be a strong day for tech stocks. In fact, the NASDAQ seemed to be hammering out a nice bottoming pattern (see chart). Today’s MACD indicator bullish cross only strengthens the bull case – the MACD had not only crossed above its signal line but also trending above the zero line and hence, confirmed the bullish trend. The best case scenario would be an upward push to the area of February’s high, about 2419.23. This, if hurdle and sustained, will have the potential to push prices into resistance at the area of the six-month falling trend-line, about 96.51 – though this is not expected tomorrow.

Optimism surrounding financial stocks had helped to push the board market higher with the S&P 500 index gained about 0.06%.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

So far so good, the index seems to be ready for a test of key resistance around the 1400 level. In addition, the MACD indicator, which is trending above the zero line, crossed above its signal line today and hence confirms the bull case. Right now the most obvious level to watch is the April 07^th high at 1386.74. This, if hurdle and sustained, will trigger all sorts of stops and has the power to fuel a run into the area of November’s low at 1406.10. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below Tuesday’s low at 1324.35 can wreck the short-term bullish outlook.

In summary: unless there is a headline that everyone recognizes as bearish, Friday will be a strong up day for the bulls.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月18日(週五)的市場技術分析。

週四大盤基本平收，金融股和個別科技股的動能帶動大盤收復失地，最後小幅高收，漲幅約0.01%。平收的結果不算特別理想，不過考慮到前一個交易日超過250點的漲幅，昨天微幅上揚已經不錯了。這一走勢是看漲的，意味著過去幾個月來投資者“逢高出貨”的心理定勢被打破。事實上，昨天的走勢同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的“看漲”判斷十分吻合。

昨天對大盤影響最大的股票之一是美林(MER)。公司昨天公佈每股虧損2.20美元，虧損額高於分析師平均預測值0.21美元。公司同樣公佈了 15億美元的資產支持證券減記和金融擔保方面的30億美元減記。儘管美林業績不佳，但是券商和投行股均大幅上漲，雷曼(LEH)上漲5%，花旗(C)、摩根(MS)和高盛(GS)漲幅在2%到3%之間。結果KBW銀行指數高收1.67%。

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

從圖上我們可以看到，銀行板塊在測試74美元的關鍵支撐後迎來強勁買盤，連續3個交易日大幅走高。事實上，這一走勢同我們在4月15日的市場前瞻中提出的“超賣反彈”判斷非常吻合，我們當時提到：“週一的重跌將指數打壓至3月低點的關鍵支撐位附近，大約74點……中期相對強弱指標(RSI)快速接近超賣區域，因此接下來在目前位置出現一定的整理行情是不足為奇的。”

從技術上講，儘管銀行指數最近走勢激動人心，但估計僅是一波短期的超賣行情。由此看來，除非指數成功突破6個月下降趨勢線的重大阻力位(目前在 88點)，多頭面臨的機會不大。不過一旦指數堅定站上該趨勢線，下一個可能的位置將是2月高點區域，大約96.51點。關鍵支撐位在3月低點區域，大約 73.22點。

昨天搜索引擎巨頭谷歌(GOOG)公佈銷售和利潤數字超出預期，其股票在盤後交易中飆漲15%以上。盤後交易中納斯達克100和其他大盤指數漲幅均遠超1個百分點。

圖1.2 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

今天很可能是科技股強勢沖高的一個交易日。事實上，納指在圖形上似乎已經形成一個明顯底部。另外，昨天MACD指標交叉至信號線上方、同時低於零線，指標出現金叉同樣支持指數的走高。我們預計納指最有可能的走勢便是上功至2月高點區域，大約2419.23點。如果這一阻力被堅定突破，下一步將有可能向6個月下降趨勢線的關鍵阻力位發起衝擊，不過這不會在今天發生。

市場對金融股的樂觀情緒也推高了大盤，標普500指數上漲約0.06%。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普目前走勢不錯，似乎已經準備好向1400點附近的關鍵阻力位作出測試。另外標普的MACD指標在零線上方交叉至信號線之上，這一金叉形態也支持看漲的判斷。目前最應該關注的點位是4月7日高點的阻力，大約1386.74點。如果標普能夠堅定站上這一位置，將觸發各種止損，激發的動能把指數帶向 11月低點區域，大約1406.10點。在當前形勢下，指數只有跌破週二低點才能逆轉短期看漲的局面，大約1324.35。

總結：除非有大的利空消息出現，週五將是一個鐵定的上漲交易日。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday April 17, 2008.

Stocks spiked Wednesday, with the Dow rising almost 250 points, as investors cheered positive earnings surprises from several major corporations. The most important fact about Wednesday was that, just like Tuesday, there were no negative earnings surprises. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Coca-Cola (KO), CSX Corp (CSX), Abbott Labs (ABT) and Johnson Controls (JCI) - all topped expectations. This is a positive for the stock market. As a matter of fact, today trading action had confirmed the validity of the “bullish” outlook that we’ve offered right here in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “the market appears to be hammering out a nice bottoming pattern…the near-term outlook is bullish.”

As expected, Intel (INTC) was one of the most influential stocks on Wednesday, and was by far the most actively traded issue. Shares of the world’s largest maker of semiconductors rose 5.83% after the company issued a bullish outlook that helped calm investors’ fears over demand and margins. And the PHLX Semiconductor Sector index gained 5.45% as a result.

Chart 1.1 – PHLX Semiconductor Sector index (daily).

As predicted, the sector rallied directly into the area of April’s high today. While the action is bullish, we’d exercise with caution until the February’s high, about 380, is recaptured. This, if hurdle and sustained, will have the potential to push prices into the area of December’s low, about 400. Critical support is at the area of March’s low, about 332.

Speaking of earning, shares of International Business Machines Corp (IBM) jumped about 3% after Wednesday closing bell to a new multi-year high after the company reported earnings that beat expectations. This is bullish. Our instinct tells us that good news surrounding IBM’s upbeat earning report should give the board market a significant dose of optimism going into option expiration Friday.

Chart 1.2 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The bulls have to be thrill with Wednesday’s trading action. The S&P gained over 2% today on increasing volume. The rally had push prices back above the minor resistance at the two-week falling channel. The action is bullish and helped setting the stage for a test of key resistance at the area of February’s high, about 1400. Again, this, if hurdle and sustained, will completed the bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern, which has the potential to push the index up to about 1520! In short, the near-term outlook is bullish barring a close below immediate support at last week’s low, about 1312.

It worth noticing that despite the record high energy prices - crude oil hit an all-time high of $115.07 per barrel – the Dow Transports did a huge breakout today.

Chart 1.3 – Dow Jones Transport Average (daily).

As you can see, today bullish breakout pushed prices above key resistance at the 5000 level and hence, completed the bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern. The action is bullish and suggesting a test of last July’s high, about 5400. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below March 31^st low at 4695 can wreck the bullish outlook and argue for low prices.

In summary: Wednesday’s recovery rally had helped setting the stage for an assault of key resistance around the S&P 1400 level. Technically speaking, the duration and strength of the breakout, if and when it comes, should help us know how much buying interest is out there and how confident investors are for the second half of the year.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月17日(週四)的市場技術分析。

受幾大利好財報的刺激，週三美股大幅上揚，道指上漲將近250點。週三的行情同週二有一個相似的根本之處，就是沒有負面財報消息的公佈。JP摩根大通(JPM)、富國銀行(WFC)、可口可樂(KO)、CSX Corp.(CSX)、Abbott Labs(ABT)和江森自控(Johnson Controls)(JCI)等所有公司的財報都超出了預期。這對股市是非常正面的。事實上，昨天大盤的走勢同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的“看漲”判斷非常吻合，我們當時提到：“市場表現出很好的築底跡象……近期走勢看漲。”

恰如我們所料，昨天英特爾(INTC)成為主導大盤走勢的股票，其自身的換手率也是最高的。該世界頭號半導體產商發佈了強勁的財測數字，從而打消了投資者對公司需求和利潤率方面的擔憂，昨天股價大漲5.83%。英特爾也帶動費城半導體指數飆升5.45%。

圖1.1 費城半導體指數(日線圖)

恰如我們所料，昨天半導體指數強力上攻至4月高點區域。這一走勢是看漲的，不過在指數重奪380點的2月高點之前，我們應該謹慎行事。如果指數能夠拿下2月高點的重大阻力，激發的動能將把價格推向去年12月低點附近，大約400點。關鍵支撐位在3月低點，大約332點。

另外昨日IBM(IBM)公佈了超預期的財報，盤後交易中股價大漲3%，創出多年來新高。後市繼續看漲。我們的直覺告訴我們，IBM的利好財報將給大盤注入一針強心劑，這種樂觀情緒將持續到週五的行情(這一天也是期權到期日)。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨天的行情一定讓多頭興奮不已，標普放量大漲2%以上。昨天的上漲使得標普突破了兩周下降通道的次要阻力，這一看漲信號將助推指數向上測試2月高點的關鍵阻力位，大約1400點。如果標普能夠攻佔這一阻力，將形成看漲的頭肩底形態的右肩，從而向1520點發起衝擊。總之，除非指數收盤跌破上周低點的緊鄰支撐位，大約1312點，近期走勢是看漲的。

值得注意的是，儘管能源價格再創新高，原油收出每桶115.07美元，但是道瓊斯運輸業平均指數依然突破阻力、強勢沖高。

圖1.3 道瓊斯運輸業平均指數(日線圖)

從上圖我們可以看到，昨天的強力上攻使得指數突破了5000點大關的關鍵阻力，從而完成了看漲的頭肩底形態。這一走勢是看漲的，預示著下一步將測試去年7月高點、5400點的阻力。在目前形勢下，指數只有堅定跌破3月31日低點、4695點，才有可能逆轉看漲態勢，並進一步走低。

總結：週三的報復性反彈已經為標普上攻1400點的關鍵阻力打下了伏筆。從技術上講，如果標普最終能夠突破1400點，那麼屆時突破的力度和持續時間對於判斷市場的做多興趣非常關鍵，並且將反映出市場對下半年行情的信心到底如何。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday April 16, 2008.

Stocks ended higher Tuesday, in a choppy session, as investors weighed the strong regional manufacturing report against record oil and gas prices and other signs of inflation. As a matter of fact, Monday’s trading action had confirmed the validity of the “rally attempt” scenario that we’ve traced out right here in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “while expecting volatility to continue for sometime as the market is looking for its footing, we believe there is a pretty good chance for a significant attempt to rally this week.”

The most important fact about Monday was that there were no negative earnings surprises. U.S. Bancorp (UBS), Johnson & Johnson JNJ), State Street (STT), Northern Trust (NTRS) all top earnings expectations. This is in contrast to the bad start of this earnings season, with disappointments from General Electric (GE), Alcoa (AA) and Wachovia (WB). Speaking of earning, shares of Intel Corp (INTC) is trading up about 7% in after hour trading after the world’s largest maker of semiconductors reported lower earnings that matched analysts’ estimates, but gave a higher than expected guidance. And the sector that will benefit the most from INTC upbeat earning would be the semiconductor.

Chart 1.1 – PHLX Semiconductor Sector index (daily).

The sector seems pretty promising at a first glance. Today’s bullish candlestick only strengthens the bull case. In addition, the MACD indicator is not only trending above the signal line but also moved above the zero line and hence indicating a bullish trend. So it wouldn’t surprise us to see a retest of April high, about 375, in the days ahead. This, if hurdle and sustained, will trigger all sorts of stops, so to speak, and has the power to fuel a run into the December’s low, about 400 – that’s about 14% from here. Critical support is at the area of March’s low, about 332.

Our instinct tells us that optimism surrounding Intel’s upbeat earning report is not only helping the tech sector but also the board market.

Chart 1.2 – S&P 500 index (daily).

As you can see, the index hangs on pretty well to key support at April 1^st bullish breakaway gap, about 1322. It seems to us that the decline from April 4^th high at 1386.74 to Tuesday low at 1324.35 was a retracement in an otherwise bullish pattern that has been forming for the past 3 months. Right now, the most bullish thing the market can do, and we believe it would, is pushing prices above the 50-day moving average, and past the 1390 level. This, if hurdle and sustained, will printed a very handsomely-formed inverted head and shoulders pattern, which has the potential to push the index up to about 1520! That’s merely 190 points or 14% from here!

In summary: while the market appears to be hammering out a nice bottoming pattern, we’d exercise with caution until the 50-day moving average is recapture. In short, the near-term outlook is bullish barring a close below key support at S&P 1312.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.