Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 28, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday February 29, 2008.

Stocks stumble out of gate Thursday as weak economic and corporate news weighed on the market. The fourth quarter preliminary GDP reading was unchanged from the advanced reading at 0.6% though it was below the Street expectation of 0.8%. New unemployment claims for the week ended Feb. 23 rose to 373,000 from 354,000. The consensus estimate called for a reading of 350,000. General speaking, this increase is not a good economic signal.

Despite the overall weakness, shares of Lifecell Corporation (LIFC) jumped more than 5% Thursday on heavy volume.

Chart 1.1 – Lifecell Corp (daily).

Initially profiled in February 26 “Swing Trader Bulletin”, LIFC has gained more than 10% and remains well positioned. Today bullish breakout had cleared resistance at February high. While the short-term trend might be overly extended, a pullback to support at recent bullish breakout point, about $37, will attract buyers. The medium-term outlook remains bullish barring a close below key support at the area of February low, about $35.75.

Financials got hit hard in Thursday sell-off after Fed Chairman Bernanke said before the Senate Banking Committee that smaller U.S banks may fail. The KBW bank index dropped 3.46% for the day.

Chart 1.2 - KBW bank index (daily).

The KBX took an abrupt turn for the worse today. The action had increased the probability for a test of key price level at the area of January low. In addition, the bearish MACD indicator crossover seems to favor the bear case. Right now, we’ll have to keep a close eye on the short-term support at February low, about 84. If this goes, we believe that January low would be gone as well. At this juncture, only a sustain advance above Wednesday high at 89.93 can wreck the bearish outlook.

As goes the bank so goes the tape, so to speak. Weaknesses in the financials stocks had dragged the S&P down. The broader market index fell 0.89% to close near its worst level of the session.

Chart 1.3 - Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

Looking at the daily graph of the S&P, we can see that price has made a naughty U-turn right beneath the 50 day moving average. While the action is bearish, the bears will not have their case unless they mange to push prices below key support at the area of February low, about 1316. Further, downside volume was just about average and we, therefore, believe that Thursday decline is merely an oversold consolidation. In short, more likely than not, prices will continue to chop sideways before a new catalyst kicks in and push them out of the “stubborn” trading range. Resistance is at the area of 50-day moving average, about 1400.

Strikingly, shares of Apple Inc (AAPL) shook off its long funk on Thursday and jumped to a 3-week high after Tim Cook, the company’s chief operating officer helped cool worries about the company’s outlook. Speaking at a Goldman Sachs technology conference, Cook reiterated that Apple will meet its 2008 target of selling 10 million iPhones. Despite the good news surrounding Apple, the tech rich NASDAQ Composite index failed to catch a bid, down 0.94% for the day.

Chart 1.4 –NASDAQ Composite Index (daily).

The NASDAQ pushed up against the four-week falling trend-line and, for goodness sake, the trend-line pushed prices back down. While this presents us with a bearish picture, it is short term in nature. Volume was also lower so we think instead of falling through key support at February low, as many market participants believed it would, prices will consolidate around the center of the several week long triangle before some catalysts kick in and push them out of the range. Support is at the area of February low, about 2252. Resistance is at the area of 50-day moving average, about 2420.

In summary: there is no need to sugar coating, Thursday trading action is bearish. Although the market’s negative reaction to bad economic news is disconcerting. What really concerns us is the extreme bearish sentiment among market participants – everywhere we go, people are saying the same thing: “look at the chart, the bounce is over! We’re due for a third leg down of the bear market!” Thursday downside volume also seems to support the working hypothesis that people are look forward to the “next big drop”. And this brings back the old market adage “the watched pot never boils” – especially when things are “too good to be true”. In short, until proven otherwise trading range is the name of the game.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 28, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年2月29日(週五)的市場技術分析。

受疲軟經濟數據和公司財報影響，昨天股市跳空低開。第四季度美國經濟增長速度大幅放緩，年增長率降至0.6%，與上月預估值相同，低於華爾街 0.8%的預測值；2月23日結束的上周失業救濟金申領人數從35.4萬增至37.3萬，此前平均預測值為35萬。總的來說，失業救濟金申領人數的上升並不是什麼好的經濟信號。

儘管大盤疲軟，昨天Lifecell Corporation(LIFC)股價卻放量大漲5%以上。

圖1.1 Lifecell Corporation(日線圖)

自從我們2月26日”Swing Trader Bulletin“對該股作出推薦以來，迄今漲幅已經超過10%，而且還有上漲空間。昨天的飆升已經清除了2月高點的阻力。儘管短期內該股已經大幅上揚，但是如果它回撤至近期突破位支撐(大約37美元)，依然會迎來買盤。該股中期依然看漲，除非收盤跌破2月低點關鍵支撐，大約在35.75美元。

由於聯儲在講話中提到美國小型銀行可能處境糟糕，昨天金融板塊大幅下挫，KBW銀行指數下跌3.46%。

圖1.2 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

KBW昨天形勢突然惡化，這一走勢增加了向下測試1月低點關鍵價位的可能性。另外，MACD指標也似乎預示著下跌的走勢。目前，我們必須密切關注2 月低點的短期支撐位，大約在84點。如果這一位置沒能守住，我們相信1月低點也同樣會失守。在目前形勢下，只有持續上漲至週三高點(89.93點)之上，才能夠逆轉看跌的態勢。

恰如俗話所說：銀行往東，大盤不往西。昨天銀行板塊的弱勢也拖累了標普。標普下跌0.89%，收於昨天低點附近。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

從標普的日線圖上可以看到，指數在50日均線下方出現一個U型反轉。這一走勢無疑是看跌的，不過除非空頭能夠將股指打壓至2月低點下方(大約 1316點)，下跌的空間並不大。進一步說，昨天跌勢的量能並未出現放大，僅僅處於平均水平，因此我們相信週四的下跌僅僅只是整理過程。簡而言之，在出現新的催化劑將指數帶出“頑固的”交易區間之間，標普很可能繼續保持震盪運行的態勢。阻力位大約在50日線附近，大約1400點。

昨天，在蘋果(AAPL)公司首席運營官Tim Cook平息市場對公司前景的擔憂之後，公司股價從長期頹勢中發力上攻，漲至3周來新高。在高盛主持的科技會議上，Cook重申蘋果將達到2008年 iPhone銷售1000萬台的目標。儘管有蘋果的利好消息，昨天納斯達克綜合指數還是下跌了0.94%。

圖1.4 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

納指在試圖攻破4周來下降趨勢線的時候受到打壓。這一走勢是短期看跌的。不過量能也有所萎縮，因此我們認為納指不太可能出現大家所期望的跌破2 月低點支撐的走勢，而是在數周來形成的長三角形中位附近整理，直到新的催化劑將其推出區間。支撐位在2月低點，大約2252點。阻力位在50日均線附近，大約2420點。

總結：我們沒必要掩飾，昨天的走勢是看跌的。儘管市場對利空經濟新聞的消極反應令人擔憂，但真正不利的是整個市場極度悲觀的情緒，所有人都在在說：“看看圖形，反彈結束了！大盤將第三次大幅下跌！”從昨天的量能來看，似乎也說明人們都在期待“下一次大跌”。不過我們還應記得這句諺語：“盯著的水壺永遠不開，”尤其在事情好得超乎我們想像的時候。總而言之，我們認為大盤很有可能繼續在區間內運行。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 27, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday February 28, 2008.

We’ve point out right here in the previous Market Outlook that: “the short-term trend is a bit tired …expecting some sorts of profit takings in the upcoming days.” Stocks opened on a down note Wednesday, following three consecutive sessions of gains, as investors weighed weak reports on housing and manufactured goods and the near-record energy prices.

Speaking of housing, the PHLX Housing Sector Index gained more than 1% Wednesday on the face of the weaker than expected New Homes Sales – January new home sales fell to a 588,000 unit annualized rate from a revised 605,000 unit annualized rate in the previous month, which is well below the expected drop of 600,000 unit annual rate.

Chart 1.1 – PHLX Housing Sector Index (daily).

Today upside follow-through had confirmed the validity of Tuesday bullish breakout. Also notice, the leading bullish MACD crossover. Technically speaking, the short-term outlook remains positive barring a close below key support at the area of February low, about 130. Resistance is about 155.

Despite the lift in the housing stocks, the S&P has been unable to register gains in Wednesday session. The board market index finished slightly below the zero line, down 0.09%.

Chart 1.2 - Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

Not only that the index failed to confirm the validity of Tuesday bullish breakout, the short-term relative strength index (RSI) indicator also dropped below the overbought territory. The action is indicative of a short-term trend reversal. The index has a short-term support around the 1354 level. While Wednesday trading can be classified as bearish, the bears will not have their cases unless they manage to push prices below this level. Resistance is at the area of 50-day moving average, about 1400.

It also worth noticing that, the Euro hit an all time high against the dollar, stretching upward to $1.514, after the Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated that the Fed is likely to continue cutting interest rates in the near term. The greenback weaknesses had helped to put in a bid in the large caps stocks. The Dow industrial average finished slightly above the zero line, up 0.07%, as a result.

Chart 1.3 – Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

Despite Wednesday gain, the index still traded within Tuesday trading range, and hence failed to confirm the validity of the bullish breakout. The short-term relative strength index (RSI) indicator is also on a verge of breaking down. A sustain decline below Tuesday low at 12512.41 is indicative of a test of key support at the area of February low, about 12069.

In summary: Wednesday trading action had confirmed the validity of the short-term “overbought” scenario that we’ve point out in the previous Market Outlook. As also mentioned, whether this is merely a pause that refreshes or a beginning of something important is remained to be seen, though, since we’re still in a bear market, we’ll continue to treat the rebound from February low as nothing more than a “bear market rally”.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 27, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年2月28日(週四)的市場技術分析。

在昨天的“市場前瞻”中我們曾指出：“短期趨勢略顯疲態……預計未來數日可能出現一些獲利回吐盤。”受房地產和製造業的利空消息和能源價格逼近歷史新高的打壓，美股在連續3個交易日上漲之後，昨天出現低開。

房地產方面，儘管新屋銷售量低於預期，昨天PHLX房地產指數依然上漲超過1%。一月份新屋銷售數字較上月修正後按年率的60.5萬棟下降2.8%，至58.8棟，大幅低於此前市場預期的降至按年率60萬棟。

圖1.1 PHLX房地產指數(日線圖)

昨天的繼續上揚對週二的向上突破作出了確認。我們還可以注意到，MACD指標出現看漲交叉。從技術上講，短期內依然是看漲的，除非指數收於2月低點的關鍵支撐位下方，大約130點。阻力位大約在155點。

儘管有房地產股的拉動，標普昨天依然未能出現上漲。標普昨天微幅下跌，跌幅0.09%.

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普不但未能對週二突破的合法性作出確認，而且相對強弱指標(RSI)也跌至超買區域下方。這預示著將出現短期回撤走勢。標普短期支撐位大約在 1354點。儘管週三的走勢可以被認為是看跌的，但是只要空頭不能成功將股指打壓至支撐位之下，將不會出現大的下跌。阻力位在50日均線的位置，大約 1400點。

還值得注意的是，由於聯儲主席伯南克在國會的講話暗示聯儲近期內還將繼續降息，昨天歐元對美元匯率創出新高，一路飆升至1.514美元。美元的走低對大型藍籌股起到了推動作用。結果道瓊斯工業平均指數小幅高收，漲幅0.07%。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

儘管週三出現上漲，道指依然未能突破週二的交易區間，從而也未能對突破作出確認。短期相對強弱指標(RSI)同樣站在跳台邊上。如果股指跌破週二低點、12512.41點，將意味著對2月低點的關鍵支撐區域作出測試，大約在12069點。

總結：週三的價格走勢證實了我們昨天提出的“短期超買”的看法。再重複一次，現在到底是上漲中的稍息還是新一輪大跌的開始，還有待觀察，畢竟大盤的總體趨勢仍是下跌的。我們繼續將從2月低點的走高僅僅視作“跌勢中的反彈”。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 26, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday February 27, 2008.

Stocks closed higher Tuesday, for the third session in a row, after IBM (IBM), a Dow component, announcement that the company’s board of directors authorized an additional $15 billion for its stock repurchase program. The technology sector drafted off IBM’s encouraging news with the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.75% to finish at 2344.99.

Chart 1.1 – Nasdaq Composite Index (daily).

General speaking, Tuesday trading action was the most positive activity we’ve seen in several weeks. As a matter of fact, today trading action had confirmed the validity of the “tradable low” scenario that we’ve pointed out in our weekend “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” when we wrote that: “the medium-term indicators suggested that a tradable low has been established.” Any call options traded could have earned about 30% intraday.

Right now, the most obvious level to watch is February high, about 2413. Technically speaking, a walk above this level will trigger all sorts of stops - orders to buy or sell if the market surpasses a certain level. This, if true, will have the potential to propel prices to test a more important resistance plateau at the area of November low, about 2540.

Good news surrounding IBM had helped to carry the Dow higher. The blue-chips index gained 0.91% for the day.

Chart 1.2 – Dow Industrial Average (daily).

We’ve noted in the previous Market Outlook that: “the stage had been set for a strong countertrend rally that has the potential to propel the major indices into the area of 50-day moving average”, the blue-chip index did just that Tuesday. While today trading action is bullish, the short-term RSI indicator had entered the overbought territory, so it wouldn’t surprise us to see some sorts of profit taking in the upcoming days. The index has a short-term support around the 12400 level. At this juncture only a decline below this level can turn the short-term swing chart down and hence, increase the probability for a retest of key price level around the area of February low, about 12069.

Financial stocks advanced Tuesday after Moody’s investor service said it will maintain bond insurer MBIA’s (MBI) credit rating. Buying interest in the financial stocks had helped to push the S&P higher. The board market index gained 0.69% for the day.

Chart 1.3 - Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

As predicted, price rallied directly into resistant at the area of the 50-day moving average. Not only that this is a tough resistant to overcome, the short-term RSI indicator also entered the overbought territory, so there is a pretty good chance that we’ll see some sorts of profit taking in the upcoming days. The index has a short-term support around the 1354 level. While the short-term trend is a little tired, the bears won’t have any cases unless they manage to push prices below this level.

From a longer term perspective, it’d be constructive if the bulls able to vault above the psychological 1400 level. As mentioned, a sustain advance above this level will trigger an upside acceleration that should propel prices into the 1450 level.

In summary: while Tuesday trading action should be classified as bullish, the short-term trend is a bit tired and we’re, therefore, expecting some sorts of profit takings in the upcoming days. Further, whether the upcoming reversal is merely a pause that refreshes or it’s a beginning of something worse is remained to be seen though, for the moment, the bulls still deserve the benefits of the doubts.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 26, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年2月27日(週三)的市場技術分析。

受道指成份股公司IBM(IBM)宣佈董事會授權進行150億股票回購的消息刺激，週二美股繼續走高。IBM的利好消息帶動了科技板塊的上揚，納斯達克綜合指數高收0.75%，收於2344.99點。

圖1.1 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

總的來說，昨天的價格走勢為數周來最為有利的。事實上，昨天的走勢證實了我們在週末的“Cubes Speculator Bulletin”中“可買入低點”的判斷，當時我們提到：“中期指標顯示，可買入低點已經形成。”昨天任何看漲期權的收益率都在30%左右。

目前最值得關注的點位是2月高點，大約在2413點。從技術上講，指數站上該位置將觸發大量止損，從而增加向上測試11月低點區域阻力位的可能性，大約在2540點。

IBM的利好消息同樣推高了道指，當天漲幅0.91%。

圖1.2 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

在昨天的“市場前瞻”中我們提到：“大盤似乎已經準備好爆發一輪強勁的逆勢反彈，有可能將各大指數推向50日均線附近區域。”昨天道指的走勢的確如此。儘管昨天的價格走勢十分有利，但是從短期相對強弱指標(RSI)來看，道指已經進入超買領域，因此在未來數天出現獲利回吐是不足為怪的。指數在 12400點附近有一個短期支撐。在目前形勢下，只有跌破該支撐，才能將短期擺動形態轉為下跌，並增加重新測試2月低點關鍵價位的可能性，大約在 12069點。

週一來自債券保險商MBIA(MBI)的利好消息繼續推高金融板塊，同時金融板塊的做多興趣又使得標普走高。昨天標普上漲0.69%。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

恰如我們所料，昨天標普徑直奔向50日均線區域。但是，不但50日線易守難攻，短期相對強弱指標(RSI)也已經進入超買，因為未來數日很可能會出現一些獲利回吐盤。指數短期支撐位大約在1354點。儘管多頭短期攻勢略有懈怠，但空頭在成功摧毀這一支撐之前，並不會有太大機會。

從更長期來看，如果多頭能夠攻佔1400點的心理點位，將是非常有建設性的。同原來提到的一樣，如果指數持續上漲至該點位之上，將激發強力上升動能，並將指數推向1450點。

總結：週二的走勢應該可以看成是後市看漲的，不過短期動能已經略顯疲態，因此我們預計未來數日會出現一些獲利回吐現象。另外，接下來可能出現的回調到底只是短暫的休息，還是新一輪深跌的開始，還需拭目以待，不過就目前而言，多頭依然佔據上風。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 25, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday February 26, 2008.

Stocks staged another impressive late day rally Monday after Standard & Poor’s reiterated its top rating for Ambac Financial Group (ABK) and took rival MBIA Inc (MBI) off its credit watch list, soothing worries about problems for the bond insurers spreading to the broader market. Shares of these two monoline insurers soared 15.87% and 19.70% respectively on the news. For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.5%; while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.4%. It worth notice that, Monday gains marked the best percentage gains for both of these major market indices this month. In fact, today trading action had confirmed the validity of the “massive move” scenario that we’ve traced out right here in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “if the credit markets catch a bid, then we’ll see a massive upside move in the financial stocks and this should have enough power to push the S&P toward the key price area around the 1400 level.”

Chart 1.1 – KBW Bank Index (daily).

Today’s upside follow-through of last week rally has positioned the price structure for a test of key price level around the area of February high, about 96. Needless to say, the action is bullish and very consistent with the short-term “bullish” scenario that we’ve offered right here in the previous Market Outlook and we, therefore, see no reason to abandon this working hypothesis unless there is a close below key support at last week low, about 85.

Despite worries about deteriorating earnings prospects for the financial sector that were touched off after Goldman Sachs (GS) lowers its first quarter earnings estimates on a number of investment banks, the S&P held up very well in Monday’s trading.

Chart 1.2 - Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

Price rallied directly into resistant at the area of the triangle’s upper border. The short-term RSI indicator is fast approaching the overbought territory, so there is a pretty good chance that we’ll see an upside push that could propel prices into the area of overhead resistance around the 1400 level before the rally runs out of steam. From a longer term perspective, it’d be very constructive if the bulls able to vault above this reaction high. Again, at this juncture, only a sustain decline below key price level around the area of February low, about 1315, can wreck the short-term bullish outlook and hence increase the probability for a retest of major support at the area of January low, about 1270.

It worth notice that of the ten economic sectors finished higher, material is the only sector achieves a positive year-to-date gain, up about 0.6%. Shares of Alcoa (AA), a Dow component, jumped 6.29% Monday after the sense that “aluminum is as good as gold” returns. The stock provided materials with leadership. Optimism surrounding Alcoa had helped to push the blue-chips index higher.

Chart 1.3 – Dow Industrial Average (daily).

As predicted, the index is heading toward the double resistant around the 12700 level. At this moment, it’s unknown whether this level can be taken out or not, though clearing this area is a must in order for the bulls to establish a pattern of higher-highs. Again, at this juncture, only a sustain decline below key price level around the area of February low, about 12069, can wreck the short-term bullish outlook and hence increase the probability for a retest of major support at the area of January low, about 11644.

In summary: it seems to us that the stage had been set for a strong countertrend rally that has the potential to propel the major indices into the area of 50-day moving average. As noted above, we’d view a sustain breakout above this level as constructive because it’ll trigger all sorts of stops, so to speak, and hence, increases the probability for a test of last December high.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 25, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年2月26日(週一)的市場技術分析。

週一美股再度上演尾盤大漲。昨天標普重申對Ambac(ABK)的AAA評級，並將MBIA(MBI)從信用審查名單剔除，這使得市場對債券保險行業風險出現擴散的憂慮情緒有所緩和，導致股市走高。受此消息刺激，這兩家專業保險商的股票昨天分別飆升15.87%和19.70%。道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲1.5%，標普500指數高收1.4%。值得注意的是，週一的大漲使得兩大指數出現本月最大漲幅。事實上，昨天大盤的走勢同我們在昨天的“市場前瞻在”中作出的“強力突破”的判斷若合符節，我們提到：“如果信貸市場再現利好，必然大幅推高金融股，從而為標普朝1400點關鍵價位進軍注入足夠能量。”

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

昨天的上漲延續了上週五的態勢，已經形成了向2月高點關鍵阻力作出測試的價格形態，大約在96點。毫無疑問，這一走勢是看漲的，並且同我們在昨天的“市場前瞻”中作出的短期看漲判斷相當一致。因此，除非指數跌破上周低點(大約85點)的關鍵支撐，我們沒有理由放棄看漲的立場。

儘管高盛(GS)調低了數家投資銀行第一季度的盈利預測，從而引發市場對金融板塊盈利前景惡化的擔憂，但是標普週一漲勢依然非常好。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普目前剛好貼近三角形區域上方邊線的阻力。短期相對強弱指標(RSI)正在快速接近超買領域，因此我們很有可能看到標普被推向1400點附近的上方阻力區域，直到動能完全耗盡。從更長期來看，如果多頭能夠攻佔這一制高點，將是非常有建設性的。同樣，在目前形勢下，只有持續下跌至2月低點(大約 1315點)的關鍵價格位下方，才有可能扭轉短期看漲的態勢，並增加重新測試1月低點重大支撐(大約1270點)的可能性。

值得注意的是，在所有上漲的10個板塊中，原料板塊是唯一今年迄今出現上漲的板塊，漲幅0.6%。其中道指成份股美鋁(Alcoa)(AA)昨天大漲6.29%，原因是市場重新看好鋁的價值。美鋁帶動了原料板塊的上漲，並對道指的上揚起到了推波助瀾的作用。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

不出我們所料，道指正在朝12700點附近的雙重阻力位發起攻擊。目前，我們還無法預測這一位置能否被攻克，但是多頭要想建立“高點更高”的形態，首先必須過這一關。同樣在目前形勢下，道指只有持續跌破2月低點附近(大約12069點)的關鍵價格位，才能扭轉短期看漲態勢，並增加向下測試1月低點(大約11644點)重大支撐的可能性。

總結：在我們看來，大盤似乎已經準備好爆發一輪強勁的逆勢反彈，有可能將各大指數推向50日均線附近區域。同前面提到的一樣，我們認為如果大盤堅定突破這一位置將是非常有建設性的，因為它將觸發各種止損，從而增加測試去年12月高點的可能性。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 24, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday February 25, 2008.

Stocks staged an impressive late day come back Friday with the S&P surged about 2% from its session low to close. Contributed to the overall optimism was a report on a potential deal to bail out Ambac Financial Group (ABK), one of two monoline insurers that have been steadily dropping shoes for the past few months. The financial sector had been in negative territory, lost as much as 1.9%, but managed to make a nice gain of 1.6% by the end of the day. As a matter of fact, today trading had confirmed the validity of the short-term “bullish” scenario that we’ve traced out a couple days ago when we wrote that: “the bears have had every chance to push prices through the February lows, though they couldn’t do it because the market was just keep on ignoring bad news. Technically speaking, we think a significant low has been established…. [And] a test of key resistant around the area of February high is, therefore, expected.”

Chart 1.1 – KBW Bank Index (daily).

Technically speaking, the near-term outlook remains bullish barring a close below key support at the area of previous bullish breakout point, about $85. It worth notice that, the leading bullish RSI indicator divergence seems favor the bull case. Expect a test of key resistant around the area of February high, about 96, in the upcoming days. An upside follow-though on Monday will confirm this.

Buying interest in the financial stocks had helped to push the S&P higher. The board market index gained 0.79% for the day.

Chart 1.2 - Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

Despite what seemed to be a beginning of a downside breakout, the index managed to close around the center of the triangle that it has been building over the past couple of weeks. According to our research, triangles often but do not necessarily resolve in the direction of the prevailing trend. In fact, triangles that formed in a long-term downtrend are prone for a “false” breakout. With that said, while there’re often some sorts of short-term follow-through in the direction of the breakout, this short-term movement is often a “false” move and prices will eventually correct themselves.

In addition, the MACD indicator also seems to support the “fake out” scenario. The indicator refused to drop below its signal line in the face of recent weaknesses. This is a short-term plus for the bulls. In short, there is a pretty good chance that we’ll see a short-term push toward key resistant around the area of 50-day moving average, about 1400. A sustain advance above Thursday high at 1368 will confirm this. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below key price level around the area of February low, about 1315, can wreck the short-term bullish outlook. Major support is about 1270.

Late day short covering rally in the financial sector had also helped to put in a bid in the blue-chips stocks. The Dow Industrial Average also gained 0.79% to finish at 12381. It worth noticing that the blue-chips index surged more than 200 points from its intraday low to its close.

Chart 1.3 – Dow Industrial Average (daily).

Similar to the S&P, the Dow had also snapped back to the center of the triangle it had been building over the past couple of week. The MACD indicator also turned back up and hence invalidated Thursday sell signal. Again, the action suggests the rebound from February low is still alive and we’re, therefore, expecting a retest of key resistant around the area of the falling 50-day moving average. A sustain advance above Thursday high at 12503.46 will confirm this. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below key price level around the area of February low, about 12069, can wreck the short-term bullish outlook. Major support is about 11644.

In summary: technical pressures are building up as the market dances its way into an increasingly tight trading range. Although like all volatility contraction period, the relief valve will eventually have to open. While technical background seems favorable a break to the upside, the manic nature of the market recently suggests that unless there is a significant improvement in the credit markets, the path with least resistant remains to the downside. With that said, if the credits market catch a bid, then we’ll see a massive upside move in the financial stocks and this should have enough power to push the S&P toward the key price area around the 1400 level. In the other hand, if the credit markets are getting worse, then a retest of January low, around S&P 1270, is inevitable.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 24, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年2月25日(週一)的市場技術分析。

上週五，股市尾盤大幅飆升，標普500從低點反彈超過2%。導致市場樂觀情緒氾濫的主要原因是兩大債券保險商之一的Ambac Financial Group(ABK)傳來利好消息，報道稱公司很可能馬上獲得救援。金融板塊盤中一度重跌1.9%，但是收盤成功走高1.6%。事實上，上週五的行情恰好印證了我們數天前短期看漲的判斷，當時我們提到：“空頭本來很有可能將大盤推向2月低點，但是沒有成功，原因是市場對利空消息採取充耳不聞的態度。從技術上講，我們認為深底已經形成……因此，預計大盤有可能向上測試2月高點的關鍵阻力。”

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

從技術上講，近期走勢依然是看漲的，除非指數跌破前期突破位形成的關鍵支撐，大約在85點。值得注意的是，相對強弱指標的背離走勢同樣指向看漲。預計在未來數日指數將測試2月高點附近的關鍵阻力位。如果今天指數上漲，將對此作出確認。

金融板塊的買盤也推升了標普指數，當天高收0.79%。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

儘管起初看起來似乎出現向下突破，但是收盤標普成功返回過去數周形成的三角形區域中位。根據我們的研究，三角形態並不一定意味著將要恢復主導趨勢。事實上，長期下跌趨勢中形成的三角形態很容易出現“假突破”。在這種情況下，儘管短期內通常會出現某種延續突破的走勢，但是這種短期延續常常是虛晃一槍，價格最終會出現回調。

另外，MACD指標也同樣支持“假突破”的說法。在近幾周指數的疲弱走勢中，MACD指標卻拒絕跌破信號線。這是短期內對多頭有利的信號。簡而言之，標普短期內很有可能出現測試50日均線附近關鍵阻力位的走勢，大約在1400點。如果指數持續上揚至上週四高點、1368點之上，將對此作出確認。在目前關頭，指數只有持續跌破2月低點附近關鍵價格支撐，才有可能扭轉短期看漲態勢，大約在1315點。重要支撐位大約在1270點。

金融板塊尾盤的空頭回補同樣使得道指出現上揚，漲幅0.79%，收於12381點。值得注意的是，道指收盤從當日最低點飆升200點以上。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

同標普類似，道指同樣返回了過去數周形成的三角形區域中央。MACD同樣出現回升，使得上週四的賣出信號歸於失效。道指的這一走勢再次意味著從 2月低點出現的這一波反彈依然有效，因此我們預計指數有可能再次測試下降的50日均線形成的關鍵阻力。如果指數持續上揚至上週四高點、12503.46點之上，將對此作出確認。在當前關頭，只有持續跌破2月低點附近的關鍵價位，才有可能扭轉短期看漲態勢，大約在12069點。重要支撐位大約在11644 點。

總結：隨著大盤進入越來越窄的運行區間，技術壓力也隨之上升。同所有的波動收縮行情一樣，最終能量將找到釋放的突破口。雖然技術面似乎支持向上突破的結果，但是從最近市場的大起大落行情來看，除非信貸市場出現重大利好，否則市場阻力最小的方向依然是向下。因此，如果信貸市場再現利好，必然大幅推高金融股，從而為標普朝1400點關鍵價位進軍注入足夠能量。反之，如果信貸市場局面惡化，那麼標普測試1270點附近的1月低點將是勢在必行。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 14, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday February 15, 2008.

We’ve offered right here in the previous Market Outlook that: “the relative strength index indicator suggests that the market is pretty much short-term overbought as prices approaching the overhead resistant. With the February option expiration is only a day away, this lethal combination could put the bulls on the defensive” stocks tumbled Thursday as investors got jittered at the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s bearish testimony when he said that economic conditions are likely to get worse before they get better. He also forecast a further drop in home building and related activities, and said a softer jobs market, higher energy prices and falling home values could be expected to weigh on consumer spending in the near term. And the S&P retail index dropped 2.84% as a result.

Chart 1.1 – S&P Retail index (daily).

Price turned south right at the 50-day moving average resistance. This is bearish and raising the odds for a test of January low. At this juncture, only a sustain advance above the overhead resistant at the area of last December high can wreck the bearish outlook and hence argue for higher prices. Support is about 380-360. Resistant is about 415-445.

Despite the overall weakness, shares of Baidu.com Inc. (BIDU) rose Thursday after the Chinese online search engine operator said its fourth-quarter earnings rose 79 percent as its online marketing revenue jumped. The stock jumped as much $19 or 7.30% before pulled back a bit and settle at $264.50 or 1.30% for the day. Just so that you know, BIDU gained as much as +16% since profiled in our Feb. 11 “Swing Trader Bulletin” as a potential buy candidate.

Chart 1.2 - Baidu.com Inc. (daily).

Today bullish breakout had pushed the stock above the 20-day moving average. This is short-term bullish and suggesting higher prices into the upcoming days. The most obvious level to watch is the overhead resistant around the 300 level. Support is about 220.

Within the tech sector, Intel (INTC) was the main laggard in Thursday decline. The stock down 3.54% on heavy volume after Goldman Sachs removed the company from its Conviction Buy list due to economic concerns. Sliding along with Intel was NVIDIA (NVDA). The graphic chip maker dropped 16.32% after the company reported earnings that upset investors. Their performance had dragged the large cap tech stocks. The Nasdaq 100 underperformed the broader market on a relative basis, finishing 1.8% lower. As a matter of fact, Thursday trading action had confirmed the validity of the “profit taking” scenario that we’ve offered in the previous “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” when we wrote that: “[the NASDAQ 100 index ETF] QQQQ is fast approaching the profit taking area, so don’t be surprise to see some sorts of weaknesses ahead of the weekend.” Any put options traded could have earned about 30% intraday.

Bernanke’s bearish assessment on the economy dragged down the S&P 500. The board market index dropped 1.34%.

Chart 1.3 - Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

The index turned south and ended the day near its intraday low. However, volume was light for the fifth consecutive day. The action is indicative a lack of selling interest and this is not too bad given the short-term overbought condition. Although seemingly vulnerable for further price drops, the bulls shouldn’t get into any serious troubles as long as prices hold above the short-term support around the 1320 level. As mentioned, a sustain decline below this level will raise the odds for a retest of January low, about 1270.

Chart 1.4 – Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily).

Similar to the S&P, the blue-chip index also made an ugly U-turn right beneath the area of overhead resistant though on low volume. Again, it seems to us that there was no panic in today price drop. And we, therefore, think downside risk could be limited to February low, at least for the time being. Short-term support is about 12070. Resistant is around the area of the falling 50-day moving average, about 12700.

In summary: Thursday trading action had raised the odds for a retest of February low. In addition, tomorrow is the February option expiration day and like all option expiration days, expect volatility to swing wildly should prices break-away from Thursday’s trading range.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 14, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年2月15日(週五)的市場技術分析。

在昨天的“市場前瞻”中我們提到：“相對強弱指標顯示，隨著大盤逼近上方阻力，市場已經處於嚴重短期超買狀態。由於距離2月份期權到期只有一個交易日了，這一致命因素的結合有可能迫使多頭轉攻為守。”昨天大盤大幅下挫，導致投資者出現慌亂情緒的是聯儲主席伯南克的講話，他在證詞中表示美國經濟還將進一步惡化。伯南克還預測房地產及相關行業還將繼續萎縮，同時就業市場的疲軟、能源價格的上漲和房屋價值的縮水將在近期給消費支出帶來壓力。結果昨天標普零售指數大跌 2.84%。

圖1.1 標普零售指數(日線圖)

零售指數在50日均線阻力處掉頭向下。這一走勢非常不利，同時增加了向下測試1月低點的可能性。在當前關頭，指數只有一路上揚、成功攻破去年 12月高點阻力，才能可能扭轉目前的看跌態勢，並進一步沖高。支撐區域大約在360～380點。阻力區域大約在415～445點。

儘管昨天大盤全線下跌，但是中國在線搜索引擎運營商百度(BIDU)股價卻逆市上揚。週三百度公佈在線市場推廣營收大幅增長，第四財季盈利增幅高達79%。該股昨天一度大漲19美元，漲幅7.30%，不過隨後出現回調，最終收於264.50美元，漲幅1.30%。自從我們2月11日在 “Swing Trader Bulletin”中對該股作出買入推薦以來，累計漲幅已經達到16%。

圖1.2 百度(日線圖)

昨天的上漲使得該股收於20日均線上方。這是一個短期有利信號，意味著它在未來數日還將進一步走高。目前最需要關注的位置是300美元附近的上方阻力。支撐位大約在220美元。

在科技板塊週四的跌勢中，最主要的“後進股”是英特爾(INTC)。由於高盛將英特爾從“強烈推薦”的名單中剔除，該股昨天大跌3.54%，量能也出現飆升。同英特爾一道下滑的是英偉達(NVIDIA)(NVDA)。該顯卡製造商在公佈不利財報後股價暴跌16.32%。納斯達克100指數表現出相對於大盤的弱勢，跌幅1.8%。事實上，昨天納斯達克100的價格表現同我們在昨天的“Cubes Speculator Bulletin”中“獲利回吐”的判斷頗為一致：“跟蹤納斯達克100的QQQQ正在快速逼近獲利回吐區域，因此在本周結束前出現一定幅度下跌是十分正常的。”昨天所有看跌期權的收益率都在30%左右。

伯南克唱淡美國經濟使得標普500出現下跌，跌幅1.34%。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普昨天收於振幅低點，不過量能持續第五個交易日維持在低位。這一情形說明儘管出現短期超買，但是機構派發興趣並不大，似乎不宜過於悲觀。儘管仍有可能出現進一步的下跌，不過只要指數能夠堅守在1320點這一短期支撐位上方，多頭便不會陷入太大的麻煩。正如我們提到的，如果持續跌破這一支撐，將增加向下測試1月低點的可能性，大約在1270點。

圖1.4 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

同標普類似，道指也在阻力位下方出現U型反轉，成交量也比較低。同樣，這意味著昨天的下跌中並未出現恐慌性拋盤。因此我們認為至少在目前，下跌空間將局限在2月低點之內。短期支撐位大約在12070點，支撐位大約在下降中的50日均線附近，大約在12700點。

總結：昨天大盤的走勢增加了向下重新測試2月低點的可能性。另外，今天是2月份期權到期日，期權到期日通常會出現波動加劇，今日的振幅有可能突破昨天的交易區間。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 13, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday February 14, 2008.

Stocks added on to previous gains to finish near their highs. Strikingly, each of the major indices posted gains in excess of 1% and all ten economic sectors finished in positive territory. As a matter of fact, Wednesday trading action had confirmed the validity of the “bullish” scenario that we’ve offered right here in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “while still stuck in the long-term downtrend, the market had produced a marginal positive reading on a short-term basis…this suggests that the short-term oversold rebound could turn out to be something bigger.”

Contributed to the overall optimism were the good news on the retail front and assurances from Treasury Secretary Paulson when he said that that if the economy becomes worse, the government would discuss further stimulus measures.

The bullish retail readings had not only cools the recessionary talks but also helped to put a bid in the “depress” financial sector.

Chart 1.1 – KBW Bank Index (daily).

While still stuck in an ugly down-trend, the bank index had developed some sorts of short-term bullish readings which suggest that a reversal condition is at hand. It seems to us that the pullback from February high at 96.12 into this week low at 86.06 is completed. And we, therefore, see no reason to abandon the working hypothesis that the overhead resistant at the area of December high, about 100 will be retested.

The Banking Index’s positive development had helped to push the S&P 500 index higher because, after all, 20% of its components are financially related stocks.

Chart 1.2 - Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

As expected, the bulls managed to overcome resistant at the 20-day moving average. This is bullish and suggesting that we’ll see higher prices in the upcoming days. The most obvious level to watch is the overhead resistant around the area of the “falling” 50-day moving average, about 1400. At this moment, it’s impossible to know for sure whether this resistant can be taken out or not though a walk above this level will complete the bullish “higher low” pattern, so to speak, and hence, turn the medium-term trend up.

Although seemingly bullish, the short-term relative strength index indicator suggests that the market is approaching a short-term overbought condition yet again, so we wouldn’t surprise to see some attempts to sell the rallies in the upcoming days. However, the bullish shouldn’t get into any serious trouble as long as prices hold above the short-term support around the 1320 level. As mentioned, at this juncture, only a sustain decline below this level can wreck the short-term bullish outlook and raise the odds for a retest of January low, about 1270.

Signs of market stabilization had helped blue-chip stocks to finish the day as a relative leader. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.45% for the day.

Chart 1.3 – Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily).

Similar to the S&P, the blue-chip index is also working on the bullish “higher low” pattern. While holding firm to the expectation of a test of resistant around the area of 50-day moving average, we’re also keeping an eye on the exit door. Short-term support is about 12070. As noted above, at this juncture, only a walk below this level can wreck the short-term bullish outlook and argue for a retest of January low, about 11640.

In summary: the relative strength index indicator suggests that the market is pretty much short-term overbought as prices approaching the overhead resistant. With the February option expiration is only a day away, this lethal combination could put the bulls on the defensive side.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 13, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年2月14日(週四)的市場技術分析。

昨天大盤繼續上揚，收於振幅高點。令人吃驚的是，所有主要股指漲幅均超過1%，所有十大板塊均出現上漲。事實上，週三大盤的價格走勢同我們在昨天在“市場前瞻”中的看漲評論是一致的：“儘管大盤長期跌勢依然沒有改變，不過短期內還是略微看漲的……這意味著這一波短期超賣反彈還將持續下去。”

導致昨天市場普遍樂觀情緒的是零售業的利好消息和財政部長保爾森令人寬心的言論。保爾森表示，如果經濟狀況繼續惡化，政府將研究進一步的提振措施。

零售數據的出奇利好不但緩解了人們的衰退憂慮，同時也給低迷的金融板塊拂來一絲春意。

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

儘管指數整體仍處在糟糕的跌勢當中，但是已經出現明顯短期反彈的跡象，意味著一波反轉行情即將展開。它似乎告訴我們，從96.12點的2月高點向86.06點的本周低點的回撤過程已經結束。因此，我們有充分的理由繼續堅持重新測試12月高點阻力的判斷，大約在100點。

銀行指數的走高也帶動了標普500的上揚，因為標普500中20%的成份股都是跟金融相關的。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

同我們預料中一致，多頭成功攻佔了20日均線的上方阻力。這是非常有利的，意味著未來數日還有進一步攀高的可能。目前最需要關注的位置是“下降中” 的50日均線形成的上方阻力，大約在1400點。目前我們還無法預知指數能否最終攻克50日線，不過一旦出現突破，將完成看漲的“低點更高”的形態，從而使得中期趨勢轉跌為升。

儘管表面上漲勢很明顯，不過從短期相對強弱指標(RSI)來看，市場再度接近短期超賣狀態，因此在未來數日出現一些高位拋盤是不足為怪的。不過，只要標普堅守1320點附近的短期支撐，市場多頭便不會遭遇太大麻煩。我們提到過，在目前的關頭，指數只有持續跌破這一支撐，才能逆轉短期看漲態勢，並增加重新測試1月低點的可能，大約在1270點。

市場的穩定跡象使得道瓊斯工業平均指數昨天出現較大幅度上揚，漲幅1.45%。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

同標普類似，道指同樣正在形成看漲的“低點更高”的形態。我們預計道指有可能重新測試50日均線附近阻力，不過同樣有可能出現下跌。短期支撐位大約在12070點。同上面提到的一樣，指數只有跌破該支撐才能摧毀短期看漲態勢，並可能重新測試1月低點，大約在11640點。

總結：相對強弱指標顯示，隨著大盤逼近上方阻力，市場已經處於嚴重短期超買狀態。由於距離2月份期權到期只有一個交易日了，這一致命因素的結合有可能迫使多頭轉攻為守。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 12, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday February 13, 2008.

As expected, stocks added on to previous gains thought the rally ran out of steam in the final hour of trading. As a result, the market gave back a large portion of the early gain by the end of the day and remains stuck in the same short-term support zone by the end of the day. Tuesday trading action, as a matter of fact, confirmed the validity of the “range bounce” scenario that we’ve traced out right here in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: “until proven otherwise, trading range is the name of the game.”

Contributed to the overall optimism were Warren Buffett offers to reinsure municipal bond holding from MBIA (MBI), Ambac Financial (ABK), FGIC Corp and the White House’s “Project Lifeline” which designed to help delinquent homeowners avoid foreclosure. The good news had helped to put a bid in the financial sector. The KBW bank index gained 1.49% for the day.

Chart 1.1 – KBW Bank Index (daily).

Prices continue to base sideway near support. It worth notice that, short-term relative strength index indicator turned bullish today as it crossed above the oversold territory. The action is pretty encouraging. The near-term bias still supports a test of December high, about 100. A sustain advance above 91 will confirm this. Support is about 85.

Commodity, meanwhile, extend its weaknesses with spot gold fell $16.22 to settle at $906.18 an ounce.

Chart 1.2 – World Gold Index (daily).

Gold rolled over today after the test of January high was met with a wave of aggressive selling interest. The fact that the relative strength index indicator stalled at the 70 level suggested that today bearish reversal could be a beginning of a secondary correction. This, if true, will have the potential to push prices to the area of 50-day moving average. A downside follow-through tomorrow will confirm this. Resistance is about 930.

The hope that the worst is behind us had helped to push the Dow above the four-day trading range. The blue-chip index, at its intraday high, gained around 225 points. It was, however, gave back almost half of those gains into the close.

Chart 1.3 – Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily).

The short-term relative strength index indicator turned bullish as it crossed above the oversold territory today. The action is very encouraging. It had increased the probability for a test of the overhead resistant around the area of the 50-day moving average, about 12700. An upside follow-through tomorrow will confirm this. Short-term support is about 12070. At this juncture, only a walk below this level can wreck the short-term bullish outlook and argue for a retest of January low, about 11640.

Chart 1.4 - Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

Similar to the Dow, the S&P also broke out above the four-day consolidation pattern. While the action is pretty encouraging, the bulls need to overcome resistance around the area of 20-day moving average before thinking about a run to the 1400 area. Short-term support is about 1320. Bear in mind that a walk below this level will raise the odds for a retest of January low, about 1270.

In summary: while still stuck in the long-term downtrend, the market had produced a marginal positive reading on a short-term basis. So we believe that the “higher low” scenario, that we’ve discussed right here a couple days ago, had started to gain popularity on the Street. And this suggests that the short-term oversold rebound could turn out to be something bigger.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 12, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年2月13日(週三)的市場技術分析。

正如我們所料，昨天大盤繼續了前一日的漲勢，不過上升動能在收盤前最後一個小時耗盡。結果是，股市收盤放棄了上午很大一部分漲幅，又回到了短期支撐區域內。事實上，昨天大盤的走勢同我們“區間反彈”的判斷非常吻合，我們在昨天的“市場前瞻”中提到：“如果不出意外，大盤將在近期交易區間運行。”

導致昨天市場樂觀情緒的，一是巴菲特向美國最大三家債券保險商MBIA(MBI)、Ambac Financial(ABK)和FGIC承保的市政債券提供再保險，二是白宮公佈了一項“生命線計劃”，以幫助那些違約的購房者避免遭到房屋拍賣。這些利好消息推動了金融板塊的上揚，KBW銀行指數昨天上漲1.49%。

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

銀行指數繼續在支撐附近整固。值得一提的是，短期相對強弱指標(RSI)已經脫離超賣的領域，在昨天出現看漲。這一走勢非常有利。近期有可能出現對11月高點的測試，大約在100點。如果指數持續上漲至91點之上，將對此作出確認。支撐位大約在85點。

而與此同時大宗商品的弱勢得以持續，黃金現貨下跌16.22美元，收於906.18美元/金衡制盎司。

圖1.2 世界黃金指數(日線圖)

黃金昨天在測試1月高點之後遭遇強勁賣壓，掉頭向下。目前相對強弱指標停留在70的位置，意味著昨天的反轉可能是一波次級回調的開始。如果這是正確的，那麼指數有可能返回50日均線附近區域。如果今天指數繼續下跌，將作出確認。阻力位大約在930點。

由於市場認為最糟糕的時期已經過去，這一樂觀情緒使得道指突破了四個交易日的交易區間。道指昨天最高上漲約225點，不過收盤漲幅縮水近一半。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

短期相對強弱指標昨天脫離超賣區域上行，預示著指數還將繼續上漲。昨天的價格走勢增加了測試50日均線附近上方阻力的可能性，大約在12700 點。如果今天指數繼續上漲，將作出確認。短期支撐位大約在12070點。在目前的緊要關頭，只有跌破該支撐才有可能終結短期看漲態勢，並可能重新測試1月低點，大約在11640點。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

同道指類似，標普同樣突破了四日來整理區間的上方邊線。儘管這一走勢十分不錯，不過多頭必須首先攻克20日均線附近阻力，才有向1400點進軍的希望。短期支撐位大約在1320點。記住，如果標普跌破該支撐，將增加向下測試1月低點的可能性，大約在1270點。

總結：儘管大盤長期跌勢依然沒有改變，不過短期內還是略微看漲的。因此，我們相信我們數天前在本欄提到的“低點更高”的看法將被華爾街普遍接受。這意味著這一波短期超賣反彈還將持續下去。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 11, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday February 12, 2008.

We’ve offered right here in the previous Market Outlook that: “the market is pretty much oversold in a short-term basis, a situation that, often, precedes a technical rebound” – equity market rallied Monday with tech and commodity shares sparked a broader advance that saw the Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.5%, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index gained 0.6% and the NASDAQ composite index climbed 0.7%.

Speaking of tech, shares of Memc Electronic Material (WFR) jumped 4.62% on no apparent news. Just so that you know, the stock is holding an amazing unrealized gain of almost 20% since profiled in our January 22 “Swing Trader Bulletin” as a potential buy candidate.

Chart 1.1 - Memc Electronic Material (daily).

The stock broke out from a 10-day consolidation base. Also, notice the leading bullish On Balance Volume (OBV) divergence at recent low. For starters, when price action and indicator head in different directions they set up a so called “divergence.” Technically speaking, price action is the one to play catch-up and, in this case, that would be positive for investors. In short, the stock seems to have the potential to test the overhead resistant around the area of last December high. Support is about 68.

Oil added on to previous gains, rose about 2% to finish at $93.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange amid supply concerns stemming from a threat from Hugo Chavez that Venezuela might cut supplies to the U.S. after ExxonMobil (XOM) succeeding in having $12 billion in Venezuelan oil assets frozen.

Chart 1.2 – Light Sweet Crude Oil Index (daily).

The commodity appears to move well on the expected direction and we’re, therefore, see no reason to abandon the working hypothesis that the high will be retested. However, the short-term relative strength index (RSI) is entering the overbought territory so we wouldn’t be surprised to see some profit taking attempts around the area of January high. Resistant is about 100. Support is about 85.

Bad news surrounding American International Group Inc (AIG), a Dow component, subprime write-down dragged down the blue-chip index. Without AIG, the Dow would have put together a strong advance.

Chart 1.3 – Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily).

Price continues to base sideway near support on below average volume. The action is somewhat positive, at least in a short-term, because it suggests a lack of selling interest at current price level. Support is around the area of January low, about 11640. Resistant is about 12700.

Worries about further subprime write-downs had also dragged down the boarder market index.

Chart 1.4 - Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

Similar to the Dow, the S&P also consolidated around the area of short-term support on below average volume. As noted above, the action is indicative a lack of selling interest. Near term technical bias is still pointing to a test of resistant around the area of 50-day moving average. Support is at the area of January low, about 1270. Resistant is about 1400.

In summary: while Monday low-conviction bounce is indicative a lack of selling interest, prices would not be able make any significant upside moves without real demand. With that said, the bulls will not have the ball back unless there is an increase in real demand. In short, until proven otherwise, trading range is the name of the game.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 11, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年2月12日(週二)的市場技術分析。

在昨天的“市場前瞻”中我們提到：“市場短期已經處於嚴重超賣的狀態，這種情況下通常會有一波技術反彈。”週一股市在科技板塊和大宗商品板塊的帶領下，道瓊斯工業平均指數高收0.5%，標普500指數上漲0.6%，納斯達克綜合指數上揚0.7%。

科技板塊中，MEMC電子材料(Memc Electronic Material)(WFR)在沒有利好消息推動的情況下大漲4.62%。自從我們在1月22日的”Swing Trader Bulletin“對該股作出買入推薦以來，漲幅幾乎接近20%。

圖1.1 MEMC電子材料(日線圖)

該股昨天從10日來的整理帶出現突破。我們從圖上可以注意到，在近期低點，能量潮指標(On Balance Volume)(OBV)出現背離。通常情況下，我們將價格走勢與指標的走向不一致稱之為“背離”。從技術上講，價格走勢通常跟隨在量能之後，在本例中，能量潮指標的先行上揚顯然對投資者是有利的。總而言之，該股有可能向上測試去年12月高點的阻力位。支撐位大約是68點。

昨天油價繼續攀高，紐約商品交易所原油價格上漲2%，收於93.59美元/桶，原因是埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)(XOM)凍結委瑞內拉120億石油資產後，委內瑞拉總統查韋斯可能會切斷美國的石油供應，這引發了市場對供給的擔憂。

圖1.2 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

原油目前正在朝我們預料的方向挺進，因此我們依然堅持重新測試高點的判斷。不過，短期相對強弱指標(RSI)已經進入超買領域，因此在1月高點附近很可能會出現獲利回吐。阻力位大約在100美元，支撐位大約在85美元。

受美國國際集團(American International Group)(AIG)次貸減記的利空消息影響，藍籌股指數受到拖累。如果沒有這一消息，道指本來應該出現強勁反彈。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

道指繼續在支撐附近整固，量能低於均值。這一走勢至少從短期來看是不錯的，因為它意味著在目前價位沒有太多的賣盤。支撐位在1月低點附近，大約11640點。阻力位大約在12700點。

市場對進一步出現次貸減記的憂慮也影響了標普的走強。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

同道指類似，標普也以低於均值的量能在短期支撐附近盤整。同上面提到的一樣，這意味著做空興趣比較缺乏。從近期技術面來看，標普有可能測試50日均線附近阻力。支撐位在1月低點，大約1270點。阻力位大約在1400點。

總結：週一的反彈缺乏說服力，在真正的需求出現之前，大盤難以大幅走高。也就是說，除非真實需求上升，否則多頭還無法奪回控制權。一句話，在情況發生變化前，在阻力和支撐之間進行區間操作是最適當的策略。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 09, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday February 11, 2008.

As predicted, stocks ended a rough week on Wall Street in a negative note with the Dow lost about 0.50% Friday. Contributed to the overall weaknesses was a higher energy prices. And, unsurprisingly, energy stocks were the day’s relative leaders as a result. The March delivery crude oil jumped $3.66 to settle at $91.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after OPEC reported that it will cut output to prevent prices from falling below $80 per barrel. As a matter of fact, the trading action was very consistent to the little “oversold bounce” scenario that we’ve traced out right here a couple days ago when we wrote that: “oil is pretty much oversold on a short-term basis, so we wouldn’t surprise to see some kind of attempt to buy-the-dip in the upcoming days.”

Chart 1.1 – Light Sweet Crude Oil Index (daily).

The commodity bounced off support at the area of 100-day moving average as it works off the short-term oversold condition. While the action is pretty bullish, still, we believe that the near-term highs are “in”. Resistant is at the around of January highs, about 100. Support is about 85.

Hurt by higher energy prices, the transports gave up some of Thursday gains, down 0.95% to 4711.

Chart 1.2 – Dow Jones Transport Average (daily).

The index reclaimed the medium-term support at the area of 50-day moving average since bottomed out in mid-January. It is currently challenging the long-term overhead resistant around the 200-day moving average. Not only this is a tough resistance to overcome, relative strength index (RSI) indicator shown that the group is pretty much overbought, so we wouldn’t surprise to see prices move sideways or even down a bit in the upcoming days. However, the long-term price pattern seems very promising. There is a pretty good chance that we’ll see an ultimate test of the all-time high recorded last July. Support is at the 50-day moving average, about 4550.

Meanwhile, worries about the fallout in the bond insurance market dragged down the financial sector with the KBW Bank Index dropped 2.30% for the day.

Chart 1.3 – KBW Bank Index (daily).

As expected, the index consolidates or basing sideway around the area of 50-day moving average as it works off the Fed-induced overbought condition. The action is pretty encouraging, at least in a short-term. With that said, the bulls shouldn’t get into any serious troubles as long as the banks hang above its January low, about 74.80. Short-term resistant is around the 100 level.

“As goes the banks, so goes the tape” so to speak, the S&P lost about half a percentage point to close at 1331.

Chart 1.4 - Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

As expected, the board market index is trying to establish a base around the area of January closing low. The relative strength index (RSI) indicator shows that the market is pretty much oversold on a short-term basis; and we’re, therefore, expecting an oversold rebound in a next couple of days. Support is at the area of January low, about 1270. Resistant is about 1400.

Chart 1.5 – Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily).

Similar to the S&P, the blue-chip index is also oversold in a short-term basis so it wouldn’t surprise us to see some sorts of technical rebound in the upcoming days. Support is around the area of January low, about 11640. Resistant is about 12700.

In summary: while still stuck in the long-term downtrend, the market is pretty much oversold in a short-term basis, a situation that, often, precedes a technical rebound. However, the upside potential seems to be limited, at least for the time being, because it might take quite a bit of time to repair the significant damage that had been done over the past couple of months before we can start to think about getting back to last year’s highs. In short, it’d be wise stay defensive until the bulls manage to overcome the overcome the S&P 1400.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on February 09, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年2月11日(週一)的市場技術分析。

同我們預料中一致，上週五華爾街以道指低收0.5%結束了一周糟糕的行情。導致整體大盤疲軟的原因之一是能源價格的上漲。因此毫無疑問，上週五能源股充當了相對領漲的角色。由於石油輸出國組織(OPEC)宣佈，為防止油價跌破80美元/桶，將降低石油產出，紐約商品交易所3月份交割的原油期貨價格上漲3.66美元/桶，收於 91.77美元/桶。實際上，石油價格的走勢同我們數天前在本欄作出的“超賣反彈”的判斷相當一致：“石油短期內已經嚴重超賣，預計在未來數天很可能出現某種抄底反彈的行情。”

圖1.1 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

原油在短期超賣以後，從100日均線的支撐處獲得反彈。儘管這一走勢是看漲的，不過我們依然認為它不會突破近期高點。阻力位大約在1月高點附近的100美元，支撐位大約在85美元的價位。

受能源價格上漲的打壓，運輸板塊沒能延續上週四的漲勢，而是下挫0.95%至4711點。

圖1.2 道瓊斯運輸業平均指數(日線圖)

該指數在1月中旬觸底反彈之後，收復了50日均線的中期支撐。目前它正在向200日均線附近的長期上方阻力位發起挑戰。不過，不但200日線阻力非常強大，而且從相對強弱指標(RSI)來看，該板塊已經處於嚴重超買狀態，因此我們預計未來數日將出現橫向運行甚至略微下挫的走勢。但是運輸板塊長期的價格形態依然非常看好，很有可能最終向上測試去年7月創出的歷史最高點。支撐位在50日線，大約4550點。

同時，投資者對債券保險市場的擔憂拖累整個金融板塊下跌，上週五KBW銀行指數下跌2.3%。

圖1.3 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

同預料中一致，銀行指數在聯儲降息導致超買之後圍繞50日均線橫向整固。這一走勢至少從短期來看是非常有利的。因此只要指數堅守在1月低點、大約74.80點之上，多頭便不會陷入嚴重困境。短期阻力位大約在100點。

俗話說：“銀行往東，大盤不往西。”標普下跌約半個百分點，收於1331點。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

不出我們所料，標普在1月收盤低點附近嘗試建立整理帶。從相對強弱指標(RSI)來看，大盤在短期內已經嚴重超賣。因此我們預計在未來數天會出現一波超賣反彈。支撐位在1月低點區域，大約1270點，阻力位大約在1400點。

圖1.5 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

同標普類似，道指短期內同樣處於超賣狀態，因此未來數天可能出現技術反彈。支撐位在1月低點附近，大約11640點，阻力位大約在12700點。

總結：大盤依然處於長期跌勢之中，不過短期內已經嚴重超賣，在這樣的情況下通常後續會有一波技術反彈。不過至少就目前而言上漲的空間似乎十分有限，因為大盤要修復過去數月造成的重大破壞、重返去年高點，可能需要相當長一段時間。簡而言之，在多頭攻克標普1400點大關之前，最明智的操作策略仍是防禦。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。