Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 30, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday January 31, 2008.

After all, the Fed gave what the market wanted, which was to cut interest rate by a half-point, dropping the federal-funds target to 3%, putting the rate at its lowest level since June 29, 2005. Initially, what unfolded seemed pretty typical — the Fed cuts, the market rallies. But it didn’t take long before a 200-point rally in the Dow was met with an aggressive wave of selling interest that saw the 30-stock average ended the day 37 points lower. The action was pretty consistent with the “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario that we’ve traced out in the previous Market Outlook.

Contributed to the late day selloff was a report that Fitch had cut its rating on the fourth-largest bond insurer FGIC Corporation and its financial guaranty insurance subsidiaries. Financial stocks gave up all of the post FED gains and some more, down 0.26% for the day.

Chart 1.1: KBW Bank Index (daily).

Yesterday we wrote that: “the index broke out above the 50 day moving average today… [Though] volume had refused to confirm the validity of the bullish breakout…this suggested that we should not put a lot of reading into today’s trading action - after all, it was just another bear-market rally.” This was exactly what had happened today – the index moved higher immediately after the FED announcement, then sold off sharply and printed an ugly bearish reversal bar as a result. The argument or logical behind today trading action is pretty simple: in bear market we sell rallies, not buy on weakness.

Technically speaking, today trading action suggested that a retest of this month’s low should be unfolded shortly. A downside follow-through tomorrow will confirm this. At this juncture, only a sustain advance above December’s high, about 100, on a closing basis can repair the technical damage and hence, reduce the risk of having to retest the floor hit last week. Support is about 74.80.

“As goes the bank so goes the market”, so to speak. The negative moves made in the financial stocks dragged the S&P lower, down 0.48% for the day.

Chart 1.2: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

The index printed an ugly bearish reversal bar at the area of key resistant. The action is indicative of a retest of key support at last week’s low, about 1270. A downside follow-through tomorrow will confirm this. At this juncture, only a sustain advance above the 1400 can wreck the short-term bearish outlook and hence argue for higher prices.

Chart 1.3: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

Similar to the S&P, the blue-chip index also printed a bearish reversal bar at the area of key resistant. Again, the action suggested that a retest of the floor hit last week will be happened sooner rather than later. A downside follow-through tomorrow will confirm this. Support is a bout 11640.

In summary: the technical background is on the negative side, based on Wednesday’s late day massive selloff. And we, therefore, see no reason to abandon the working hypothesis that last week’s low will be tested.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 30, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月31日(週四)的市場技術分析。

最終，聯儲還是按照市場的期望降息0.5個百分點，將聯邦基金利率降至3%，使得利率水平處於2005年6月29日以來的最低水平。市場剛開始的反應似乎很正常——聯儲降息，股市飆升。但是很快，道指200點的漲幅就遭遇強力賣壓的重創，最終低收37點。昨天大盤的這一走勢同我們昨天評論中“先漲後跌”的預測頗為一致。

導致昨天尾盤大跌的原因之一，是有報道稱Fitch已經對第四大債券保險商FGIC Corporation進行了降級。昨天金融股不但放棄了公告發佈後的漲幅，還出現進一步下跌，低收0.26%。

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

在昨天的評論中我們說道：“昨天銀行指數突破了50日均線，儘管走勢非常好，但是量能卻拒絕對這一突破作出確認。這意味著我們也許不能對昨天的漲勢寄予太高的期望，因為它很有可能是一波跌勢中的反彈行情。”這正是昨天銀行指數的表現，聯儲宣佈降息後指數立即大幅攀高，隨後很快垂直降落，收出了一根長上影線。昨天的價格走勢很明顯說明了一個問題：在熊市中人們利用反彈出貨，但不會在下跌時買進。

從技術上講，昨天的價格走勢意味著指數將很快重新測試本月低點。如果今天指數繼續下跌，將對此作出確認。在當前的轉折點，只有持續上漲至12月高點 (約100點)之上，收盤站上該阻力，才能夠修復已經造成的技術破位，從而減少向下測試上周最低點的風險。支撐位大約在74.80點。

俗話說：“銀行往東，大盤不往西。”金融板塊的跌勢對標普形成拖累，導致標普下跌0.48%。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普在關鍵阻力附近走出了一根難看的“倒置錘頭”燭線，預示著將重新測試上周低點的重要支撐，大約在1270點。如果今天繼續下跌，將作出確認。在當前關頭，只有持續上漲至1400點之上才能扭轉短期看跌的形態，才有可能進一步走高。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

同標普類似，道指也在關鍵阻力附近形成“倒置錘頭”燭線，同樣意味著很快將重新測試上周創出的最低點。如果今天繼續下跌，將確認這一走勢。支撐位大約在11640點。

總結：目前大盤的技術面非常糟糕，因此出現對上周低點的測試走勢將不可避免。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 29, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月30日(週三)的市場技術分析。

受超出預期的耐用品訂單數據和一些利好財報的推動，週二美股連續第二個交易日出現上漲。同我們預測中一致，由於抄底買盤的持續湧入，昨天地產板塊繼續表現出相對強勢。PHLX房地產指數(HGX)昨天大漲2.92%，今年的燭線已經由紅轉綠了。

圖1.1 PHLX房地產指數(日線圖)

指數目前正大步向去年11月高點阻力位(大約155點)挺進，估計很快就會出現測試阻力的走勢。正如我們提到的，這一位置能否最後攻破尚未可知，但是如果指數站上該阻力，將扭轉中期跌勢，並進一步向上測試200日線附近阻力。支撐位大約在117～127點。

同時，房地產指數的走高再次帶動了金融板塊。儘管美國運通銀行(AXP)發佈了2008年的謹慎財測，市場也傳言評級機構將對債券保險商進行評級調降，昨天銀行指數(BKX)還是大漲2%以上。

圖1.2 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

昨天銀行指數突破了50日均線，儘管走勢非常好，但是量能卻拒絕對這一突破作出確認。這意味著我們也許不能對昨天的漲勢寄予太高的期望，因為它很有可能是一波跌勢中的反彈行情。我們曾提到，只有當“真正的需求”出現之後，我們才會認為這一輪跌勢已經見底了。關鍵阻力位在12月高點附近，大約 100點。支撐位大約在74.80點。

總的來說，銀行股的反彈給股市注入了活力，標普上漲0.62%，接近當天最高點。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

儘管出現上漲，但是標普依然位於2007年最低收盤阻力位之下。這對後市是十分不利的。如果指數持續跌至1322點之下，將意味著重新測試上周低點，大約1270點。短期阻力位大約在1374點。關鍵阻力位在50日均線附近區域，大約1415點。

圖1.4 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

昨天道指剛好上漲至12500點附近的短期阻力位，但是量能的表現似乎站在空方一邊。預計指數有可能重新測試上周低點附近的關鍵支撐位，大約在11640點。如果道指今天跌破12112點，將對此作出確認。關鍵阻力位在50日均線附近區域，大約13000點。

總結：近期大盤走勢非常不錯，已經返回至關鍵阻力位。不過，金融股和地產股等重跌板塊沒有出現真正的需求，這對於今天的行情來說是一重大考驗。從大盤的驅動力來講，今天聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)貨幣政策的公佈將成為大家關注的焦點。華爾街預期聯儲將降息50 個基點，大部分人都認為如果降息 25個基點將是十分令人失望的。儘管現在結果到底如何還不知道，不過我們相信大盤很有可能最終測試上周最高點，來決定是否繼續走高。也就是說，這一波反彈只是在消息出來前的一番博弈——預期大幅降息而買進，消息公佈後再賣出。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 29, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday January 30, 2008.

Equity market picked up where it left off yesterday, rallied for the second session in a row as investors cheered the better than expected durable-goods orders and some upbeat earnings. As predicted, homebuilders outperformed the market as the group continued to attract bottom-fishing interest. The PHLX Housing Sector Index (HGX) jumped 2.92% and is now in a plus column for the year.

Chart 1.1: PHLX Housing Sector Index (daily).

The index seems to move well on the expected direction – a test of resistant at the area of December’s high, about 155, should be conducted sooner rather than later. As mentioned, it’s unknown whether this level holds or not though a walk above this level will turn the medium term trend up and hence suggests a test of resistant around the area of the 200-day moving average. Support is about 127-117.

Once again, the positive trading action in the housing sector had helped lifted financial stocks. The KWB Bank Index (BKX) rose more than 2% today on the face of a cautious 2008 outlook from American Express (AXP) and chatter that the ratings agencies are poised to downgrade the bond insurers.

Chart 1.2: KBW Bank Index (daily).

The index broke out above the 50 day moving average today. While the price action is pretty encouraging, volume had refused to confirm the validity of the bullish breakout. And this suggested that we should not put a lot of reading into today’s trading action - after all, it was just another bear-market rally. As mentioned, we want to see “real demand” returns before thinking that the bear has bottomed. Key resistant is at the area of December’s high, about 100. Support is about 74.80.

General speaking, the financials rebound had breathed life into the market. The S&P closed near its best level of the day, up 0.62%.

Chart 1.3: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

Despite today gain, the board market index still trades below the 2007’s closing low as resistant. The action is bearish. A sustain decline below 1322 indicates a retest of last week’s low, about 1270. Short-term resistant is about 1374. Key resistant is at the area of 50-day moving average, about 1415.

Chart 1.4: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

The blue-chip index had rallied directly into the short-term resistant around the 12500 area. Trading volume seems to support the bearish bets. Expect a retest of key support around the area of last week’s low, about 11640. A decline below 12112 tomorrow will confirm this. Key resistant is at the area of 50-day moving average, about 13000.

In summary: the market had done a pretty good job walking its way back to key price levels. However, a lack of real demand in the heavy short areas such as financials and homebuilders remains a major concern as we’re heading into Wednesday’s market mover. Speaking of mover, the FOMC announcement on interest rate tomorrow will be the center of attention. The Street expected a 50 points cut from the FED. It’s widely believed that a 25 points cut would be a real disappointment. While it’s impossible to know how much the FED is going to offer tomorrow, we believe that there’s a pretty good chance that the market will ultimately retest the “floor” hit last week, to determine whether a sustainable rally is in the offing. With that said, the rally is merely an attempt to game the FED ahead of time — buy on the expectation of a big rate cut, sell when the cut comes through.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 28, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM
News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月29日(週二)的市場技術分析。

週一大盤走勢不錯，上升股成交量與下跌股成交量之比達到7比2。如果考慮到週一亞洲股市出現2%～7%的跌幅，那麼美股的表現的確令人滿意。尤其令人注目的是，地產股擺脫了不利銷售數據的影響，當天大漲4.3%。

圖1.1 PHLX房地產指數(日線圖)

目前地產股走勢非常好，房地產指數可能出現測試11月高點阻力的走勢，大約在155點。目前還無法預知指數能否突破這一阻力，但是一旦站上該點位之後，中期走勢將轉跌為升，從而繼續向上測試200日均線附近阻力。支撐位大約在117～127點。

房地產板塊的回暖給大盤起到了良好的推動作用，說明市場對金融板塊進一步出現次貸投資損失的憂慮開始緩和。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普在2007年最低收盤1374點區域下方盤整，說明市場參與者仍存在一定的猶豫情緒，既不堅定看多也不堅定看空。在這種情況下，只要指數能夠守住上周最低點、1270點，多頭就不會遇到太大的麻煩。阻力位在2007年最低收盤區域，大約1374點。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

同標普類似，道指同樣在12500點附近的短期阻力位下方盤整。這一走勢同樣既非看漲也非看跌的，很難據此對後市作出明確判斷。支撐位在上周低點，大約11640點。

總結：市場似乎在聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議之前停住了腳步。目前我們只看到在金融和地產等前期被過度做空的板塊出現大量買盤，這說明這一波反彈仍是空頭回補行情。因此，我們看不出有任何理由讓我們放棄先前“逆勢反彈”的判斷，大盤很有可能重新測試上周低點。不過，如果市場能夠成功忽視負面消息的影響，站上關鍵阻力位，那時我們便知道多頭真的開始返場了。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 28, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM
News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday January 29, 2008.

Equity market started the week on an uptick that saw 7 stocks advancing for every 2 declining, which was very good considering Asia down 2 to 7 percent overnight. Strikingly, homebuilders managed to shrug off the negative sales report to finish up 4.30% for the day.

Chart 1.1: PHLX Housing Sector Index (daily).

So far so good, the index traded like it wants to test resistant at the area of December’s high, about 155. At this moment it’s unknown whether this level holds or not though a walk above this level will turn the medium term trend up and hence suggests a test of resistant around the area of the 200-day moving average. Support is about 127-117.

Housing’s positive development gave the market a nice boost as concerns surrounding the likelihood of further subprime investment losses for the financial sector started to ease.

Chart 1.2: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

The board market index consolidates right beneath the area of 2007’s closing low, about 1374. While the action reflected some sorts of uncertainties among market participants, it’s neither bearish nor bullish. With that said, the bulls shouldn’t get into any serious troubles as long as the index holds above last week’s low, about 1270. Resistant is at the area of 2007’s closing low, about 1374.

Chart 1.3: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

Similar to the S&P, the blue-chip index also consolidated right beneath its short-term resistant, about 12500. Again, the action is neither bullish nor bearish. So do not read a lot into it. Support is at last week’s low, about 11640.

In summary: the market appears to be caught in a holding pattern ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. So far we’re seeing buying interest in the heavy short areas such as financials and homebuilders. The action suggested that this rally is just another short covering bounce. And we, therefore, see no reason to abandon our little “counter-trend bounce” scenario. With that said, there’s a pretty good chance that last week’s low will be retested. However, if the market manages to shrug off the negative news and moves above key resistant, then we know that real demand has return.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

We’ve offered in the previous “Market Outlook” that:

“there is a pretty good chance that the market is going to open up tomorrow and its true character will likely tested during that opening and we suspect that it might be met with selling interest” – see “Higher prices will be greeted by sellers” January 25, 2008.

(Click here to enlarge)

As predicted, the Qs [NASDAQ 100 ETF – QQQQ] closed significantly lower after the strong opening was met with an aggressive wave of selling interest. Any put options traded could have made +100% intraday.

Despite which was another nasty day on the Street, the “Swing Trader Bulletin” continues to beat the market with its latest buy [long] setups. So, we guess this is a good opportunity to review some of these signals.

Excel Maritime (EXM) set up on January 17, 2008. The stock achieved the first target of $32 in just 1 day. That was more 14% gains in 24 hours. The stock is doing fine and working toward our second target.

(Click here to enlarge)

Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) profiled on January 14, 2008 & triggered on January 18, 2007. The stock achieved the first target [a +8.46% gains] in just a couple of days. Similar to EXM, CALM is doing well and is on its way to the second target.

(Click here to enlarge)

Memc Electronic Material (WFR) set up at the beginning of the week, on January 22, 2008. The stock is held extremely strong, gained more than 10 points and had exceeded the first target in just a matter of days. As a matter of fact, you could have bought home a nice 20% gain this weekend (if you’ve sold into the morning gap).

(Click here to enlarge)

And finally a nice short - this is all about timing.

Molex Inc (MOLX) set up on December 22, 2007. The dog trend nicely and hit our second down side target of $21 on Wednesday, January 23. We’ve covered the position for more than +23% gains right before it turned around.

(Click here to enlarge)

You see, picking the right stock at the right time is the key to success. And if you like these trading ideas, why not give it a try?

Good luck and good trading.

Note: at Capital Essence, we target sudden profits, typically stocks that we can swing in and out for a quick 10-50% and 100-500% for options.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence’s Newsletter Services - “best-of-web” technical analysis.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 24, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月25日(週五)的市場技術分析。

同我們預料中一致，受白宮減稅方案推動，投資者繼續將大盤拉高。昨天道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲0.9%，標普500指數漲幅1%。值得注意的是，昨天金融股繼續領漲大盤。這讓我們相信當前的反彈主要一波空頭回補行情，別忘了，華爾街是完全看空金融板塊的。這有點令人失望，因為大盤的持續上揚需要市場存在真正的做多興趣。因此，如果這個月底之前多頭繼續保持觀望的話，空頭很有可能大規模返場。

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

銀行指數在週三飆升8.02%之後，昨天再度大漲1.86%，兩天漲幅接近10%。目前銀行指數已經逼近90點附近的關鍵阻力位。當前我們無法預知指數能否突破這一阻力，不過我們認為它很有可能在這一位置迎來一波強力賣盤。支撐位在周二低點，大約74.80點。

圖1.2 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

道指週四繼續攀高，證實了我們對股指短期看漲的預測。同時我們依然認為股指將很快測試前期向下突破位的關鍵阻力，大約在12700點。支撐位大約在11630點。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

當前走勢還不錯，週四標普繼續走高，確認了對2007年最低收盤這一關鍵點位的測試，大約在1374點。支撐位大約在1270點。

總結：不用說，過去幾個交易日大盤的走勢振奮人心。不過我們不要忘了，從整體趨勢來看，大盤依然處在長期跌勢中。完全修復已經造成的破壞需要很長時間。在大趨勢沒有改變的情況下，反彈應該被當成出貨的機會。因此，我們認為今天大盤很可能高開，但是市場的真實反應會在開盤後慢慢顯現，我們懷疑會有大量賣盤出現，至少在剛開始的時候。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 24, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday January 25, 2008.

As predicted, the stocks extended the winning strike as investors’ cheers the White House’s stimulus plan. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial added 0.9%. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1%. It worth noticing that financials continued to provide leadership in Thursday rally. The action led us to believe that the rally was predominantly by short covering – remember, the Street was net short financials. This is not very encouraging because a sustain rally needs REAL buying interest. There is a pretty good chance that the bears will return in force if buyers fail to show up before the calendar turns to February.

Chart 1.1: KBW Bank Index (daily).

The bank index added another 1.86% on top of Wednesday’s monster gain of 8.02%. That’s about 10% in just 2 days. It’s heading toward the area of key resistant, around the 90 level. At this moment, it’s unknown whether this level holds or not though we think there’s a pretty good chance that it’ll meet with an aggressive wave of selling interest. Support is at Tuesday’s low, about 74.80.

Chart 1.2: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

The blue-chip index followed through to the upside Thursday and hence, confirmed our short-term bullish outlook on the index. Again, we’re believed that a test of key resistant around the area of previous bearish breakdown point, about 12700, is on the card. Support is about 11630.

Chart 1.3: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

So far so good, the board market index followed through to the upside and hence confirmed the test of key price level around the area of 2007’s closing low, about 1374. Support is about 1270.

In summary: needless to say, trading action was pretty encouraging in the past couple of days. However, do not forget that the big picture is still bearish with the long-term trend pointing down. It’ll take a lot of time to repair the damages done. And until these changes, rallies should be taken as selling opportunities. With that said we believe that there is a pretty good chance that the market is going to open up tomorrow and its true character will likely tested during that opening and we suspect that it might be met with selling interest, at least initially.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 23, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月24日(週四)的市場技術分析。

在昨天的評論中我們說到：“週二大盤的走勢意味著短期底部可能已經形成……我們估計很有可能持續數個交易日。”週三股市出現大幅反彈，道指不但全部收復了早些時候300點的跌幅，而且繼續走高，最終高收298點(振幅達到600點)。道瓊斯工業平均指數大漲2.5%，標普500指數上漲 2.1%。納指收復早些時候超過3%的失地，上漲1%。羅素2000小型股指數表現最為突出，大漲3.26%。

圖1.1 芝加哥期權交易所(CBOE)波動率指數(VIX)(日線圖)

波動率指數從多年來高點出現回撤，證實了我們“短期底部”的說法。我們再介紹一下，波動率指數沖高說明投資者恐慌情緒嚴重，往往意味著市場底部的形成。

圖1.2 羅素2000指數(日線圖)

數周前我們曾在本欄提到：“最應該關注的位置是2006年的低點……預計在這個位置會出現一波空頭回補帶來的反彈。”羅素2000在測試 2006年低點之後迎來了一波強力買盤，從而出現大幅反彈。這一走勢非常有利，至少在短期內。預計在未來幾個交易日羅素將測試2007年最低收盤的上方阻力，大約在735點。支撐位大約在650點。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

道指昨天放量逆勢大漲，形勢非常有利。預計道指將在未來數日測試前期向下突破位的阻力，大約在12700點。如果今天指數繼續上揚，將對這一測試作出確認。支撐位大約在11630點。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

同道指類似，標普以兩倍於日均值的成交量大幅反轉，後市看漲。預計標普將在未來數日測試2007年最低收盤點位附近阻力，大約在1374點。如果今天指數繼續走高，將對此作出確認。支撐位大約在1270點。

總結：週三的行情印證了我們“短期底部”的提法。不過從技術層面來看，這個底部不會是最後的底。因此，我們認為這一波行情屬於逆勢反彈，而不是反轉，應該藉機縮減倉位。我們相信，絕佳的賣空機會很快就會出現。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 23, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday January 24, 2008.

Yesterday we’ve said that: “the market might have hit the short-term bottom…there’s a pretty good chance that [the bounce] will last for a couple of days” – equity market kicked off a nice rally Wednesday that saw the Dow recovered all of the 300 points loss earlier in the session and then some to close up 298 points – that was a 600 points swing. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial added 2.50%. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 2.1%. The NASDAQ Composite gained 1% after sinking more than 3% earlier in the session. The small cap, Russell 2000 Index outperformed its larger peers, jumped 3.26%.

It worth notice that homebuilding and financial led Wednesday’s advance with the Philadelphia Bank Index (BKX) jumped +8.02% to $86.57 – 23 out of 24 components finishing in positive territory.

Chart 1.1: CBOE Market Volatility Index (daily).

The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, retreat from the multi-year high and hence confirmed our “tradable low” notion. For starters, VIX peak is indicative of an outright panic among market participants, which often associates with market bottom.

Chart 1.2: Russell 2000 Index (daily).

We’ve offered right here a couple weeks ago that: “the most obvious level to watch is the 2006’s low…Expect some sorts of short-covering rallies around this level” – the small caps index rebound nicely after the test of support around the 2006’s low was met with an aggressive wave of buying interest. The action is pretty encouraging, at least in a short-term. Expect a test of resistant around the area of 2007’s closing low, about 735, in the upcoming days. Support is about 650.

Chart 1.3: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

The blue-chip index printed a bullish reversal bar on huge volume. This is bullish. Expect a test of resistant around the area of previous bearish breakdown point, about 12700, in the upcoming days. An upside follow through tomorrow will confirm this. Support is about 11630.

Chart 1.4: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

Similar to the Dow, the S&P also printed a bullish reversal bar on two time daily average volume. The action is pretty bullish. Expect a test of resistant around the area of 2007’s closing low, about 1374, in the upcoming days. An upside follow through tomorrow will confirm this. Support is about 1270.

In summary: Wednesday’s trading action had confirmed our “short-term bottom” notion. Although, the technical background suggests that this is not the final bottom of this bear market. With that said, the bounce is counter trend in nature and hence should be taken as an opportunity to trim holdings. And we believe that a nice short-selling opportunity will be unfold sooner rather than later.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 22, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月23日(週三)的市場技術分析。

由於全球股市出現恐慌性拋售(香港恆生指數兩個交易日暴跌13.7%)，週二美股大幅低開。在盤前的交易中，道瓊斯工業平均指數跌幅超過500 點。但是聯儲降息公告的發佈迅速提升了市場信心。週二盤前，聯儲出人意料地大幅降息75個基點至3.5%，這一救市舉措幫助股市收復了大部分開盤跌幅。

總的來說，昨天美股的表現儘管沒有看上去那麼糟糕，但也是非常負面的。昨天的走勢是否意味著底部形成呢？我們來看一些直觀的圖形。

圖1.1 芝加哥期權交易所(CBOE)波動率指數(VIX)(日線圖)

波動率指數開盤大幅超過2002年最高點、37.50點，然後迅速回跌，不過依然處在較高位置。這意味著市場出現嚴重恐慌，從而預示市場底部的形成。

圖1.2 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

在開盤前，道指期貨一度狂瀉600點，但是聯儲的降息緩和了市場的悲觀情緒。道指成功收復早盤的大部分跌幅，最後收於當日振幅高位。值得注意的是，昨天空頭終於完成了過去數年來未能成功的事業——攻破前一年最低收盤點位(2007年最低收盤是12050.41點)。這很明顯意味著長期趨勢的逆轉。今天我們需要密切關注昨天的低點、11630點，如果股指跌破這一位置將觸發大量止損，從而導致恐慌性拋盤。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

同道指類似，標普開盤出現恐慌性局面，但是持續時間不長，砸盤很快讓位於強勢反彈。股指在開盤後一個小時內收復了開盤大部分跌幅，然後一直窄幅橫向運行直到收盤。這一走勢令人樂觀，至少在短期內，因為它說明投資者沒有很強的反彈出貨意圖。支撐位在昨天低點，大約在1274點。

總結：週二大盤的走勢意味著短期底部可能已經形成，不過反彈能夠持續多久還有待觀察，我們估計很有可能持續數個交易日。同時我們依然強調，這絕對不是這一波跌勢最後的底部，可能只是築底過程的開始，而非跌勢的終結。簡而言之，最糟糕的還未到來，但短期抄底機會已經出現。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 22, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday January 23, 2008.

Equity market opened in a lower mode Tuesday in response to an outright panic selloff in overseas markets that saw the Hong Kong Hang-Seng Index dropped 13.7% in the past two sessions. Prior to the open, the Dow Jones Industrial Average were signaling a loss of more than 500 points. The bearish sentiment was, however, cut down immediately after the FED’s announcement. In a surprise move, the Fed decided to cut the Fed Funds target interest rates by 75 basic points to 3.5%. The move has helped stocks to recoup most of the early losses.

Overall, it was an outright negative day on the Street though not as negative as it might seem at a glance. If so, does today’s action mean we are at a bottom? And for this question, we’ve a couple of simple charts to follow.

Chart 1.1: CBOE Market Volatility Index (daily).

The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, opened well above the 37.50 level – its highest level since 2002 – and then quickly fell back, though still at elevated level. This indicated an outright panic, which often associated with market bottom.

Chart 1.2: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

At one point prior to the opening bell, futures contracts were signaling that the Dow would fall 600 points for Tuesday session. However, the FED’s announcement cut down that bearish sentiment. The blue-chip index managed to recover most of the early losses and closed around its best level of the day. It worth notice that, the bears had finally achieved something that they weren’t able to do in the past couple of years – pushing the index below the previous year’s lowest closing level (the lowest close in 2007 was 12050.41). This is a clear indication of a change in the underlying trend. Keep an eye on today’s low, about 11630, for a breakdown below this level will trigger all sorts of stops and hence create an outright panic.

Chart 1.3: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

Similar to the Dow, the board market index opened in the same panic mode, but it didn’t last long. The selling climax soon gave way to a pretty good bounce. The index recouped most of the early losses within an hour after the opening bell and moved sideways into the close. The action is pretty encouraging, at least in a short-term, because it implied that the “sell the rally” mentality had been broken. Support is at today’s low, about 1274.

In summary: Tuesday’s trading action suggested that the market might have hit the short-term bottom. Whether the bounce has further to go is remained to be seen. Though we think there’s a pretty good chance that it’ll last for a couple of days. As always, we must stress that this is not the final bottom of this bear leg. It’s merely a beginning of the bottoming process rather than the end of the bear market. In short, the worst may not be over but a tradable low is upon us.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 21, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月22日(週二)的市場技術分析。

上周，在衰退憂慮和金融市場重大利空的打壓下，美股繼續萎靡不振，各大股指大幅走低。整個一周標普500下跌76點，跌幅5.4%，已經從去年 10月峰值縮水15%。納斯達克綜合指數下跌100點至2340點，跌幅4.1%，低於去年10月高點18%。道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌507點，跌幅 4%，收於12099點。道指在過去4周已經下跌了約10%，低於去年10月峰值15%。這是道指有史以來最差的一年開端。

在大盤連續下跌4周後，很多人都在擔心跌勢還將持續多久。為了弄明白這個問題，我們先來看一些直觀的圖形：

圖1.1 芝加哥期權交易所(CBOE)波動率指數(VIX)(周線圖)

從上周芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數的走勢來看，投資者對股市的憂慮情緒進一步攀升。上週四道指跳水300多點的時候，波動率指數暴漲16%。儘管上週五出現大約4%的回落，說明緊張氣氛有所緩和，從技術上講，波動率指數大幅走高說明市場存在恐慌情緒，通常意味著短期抄底機會的出現。如果本周該指數出現回調，將確認短期底部的形成。

圖1.2 標普500指數(周線圖)

從中期來看，標普已經處於嚴重超賣狀態。從圖上我們可以看到，通常作為超買或超賣指示器的相對強弱指標(RSI)已經跌至了2002年以來的最低點。總的來說，投資者可以利用這一信號捕捉一波跌市中的反彈。長期支撐位大約在2006年最低收盤附近，約1223.69點。短期阻力位大約在 1374～1400之間的區域。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(周線圖)

道指目前正在測試2007年最低收盤位的關鍵價格支撐，大約在12050.41點。目前我們還無法確定這一位置能否最後守住。儘管相對強弱指標已經跌至2002年來最低，但出現逆勢反彈的機會還是很大的。正如我們提到的，如果指數收盤跌破2007年最低收盤點位，長期牛市將轉為熊市。短期支撐位大約在12600點。

圖1.4 納斯達克綜合指數(周線圖)

同道指類似，經過上周的下跌之後，納指已經回調至2007年最低收盤的關鍵價格支撐，大約2340.68點。同上面提到的一樣，納指能否守住這一位置至關重要。從相對強弱指標來看，過去幾年在目前位置屢屢出現大幅反彈，我們預計這次也會出現一波迅速反彈。阻力位大約在2500點。

總結：股市就像皮筋一樣，如果跌離“公平”價值太遠，通常會出現反彈。因此，在目前很多股票已經跌出估值吸引力的情況下，大盤可能會迎來一波買盤。不過至少就目前而言，大盤的上升空間非常有限，幾個月來下跌對股市造成的嚴重破壞並非短時間能夠修復。同時我們繼續強調，如果大盤未能成功出現反彈，將意味著市場缺乏做多動力，大盤還將進一步下探。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 21, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday January 22, 2008.

It was another exhausting week of trading as the major indices moved significantly lower driven by recession concerns and the troubled financial crisis. For the week, the S&P 500 down 76, or 5.4%, to 1325, and is 15% below its October peak. The NASDAQ Composite Index gave up 100, or 4.1%, to 2340, and is 18% below its October high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week down 507 points, or 4%, at 12,099. It has dropped about 10% in the past four weeks, and is 15% below its October peak. This is the Dow’s worst-ever start to a year.

With the market fell for a fourth straight week, putting it on track for the worst January ever, it’s important to ask that whether this bear-market has some legs. And for this, we have a couple of simple charts to follow.

Chart 1.1: CBOE Volatility Index (weekly).

Last week, the Chicago board option exchange’s Volatility index (VIX), or fear gauge, had finally reflected some sorts of anxieties that investors feel about stocks. The index surged 16% Thursday when the Dow plunged more than 300 points. Although it had dropped about 4% last Friday and hence suggested that tension had eased a bit. Technically speaking, the spike in VIX suggested some panic, which often associates with a short-term tradable bottom. A bearish reversal this week will confirm this.

Chart 1.2: Standard & Poors 500 Index (weekly).

The board market index is pretty much oversold on a medium term basis. As you can see, the Relative Strength Index, a typical overbought/oversold indicator, had dropped to the level that had not seen since 2002. General speaking, this could help to start putting in a tradable bottom for a bear-market rally. Long-term support is at the area of 2006’s closing low, about 1223.69. Short-term resistant is about 1374-1400.

Chart 1.3: Dow Jones Industrial Average (weekly).

The blue-chip index is testing key price level at the area of support 2007’s closing low, about 12050.41. At this moment, it’s impossible to know for sure whether this level holds or not. Though with the Relative Strength Index reaches the level that had not seen since 2002, hopes for a counter trend rebound are running high. As mentioned, a walk below 2007’s closing low level on closing basis will downgrade the long-term trend to bearish from bullish. Short-term resistant is about 12600.

Chart 1.4: NASDAQ Composite Index (weekly).

Similar to the Dow, the tech rich index had pulled back to key price level around 2007’s closing low, about 2340.68, after last week sell off. As noted above, at this moment, it’s impossible to know for sure whether this level holds or not. Though with the RSI reached the level that precedes a meaningful rebound in a past couple of years, a snap back rally could be in the card. Resistant is about 2500.

In summary: like a rubber band, stocks tend to snap back to the mean if they’ve dropped too far from the “fair” value. With that said, if lower stock prices create some values for investors, then, given everything being equal, the market should be able to find some buyers. However, the upside potential seems to be limited, at least for the time being, for it might take quite a bit of time to repair the significant damage that had been done over the past couple of months before we can start to think about getting back to last year’s highs. As always we must stress that a failure to bounce after last week steep decline indicates that real demand did not return and we could, therefore, argue that this bear market is going to have some legs.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 17, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月18日(週五)的市場技術分析。

週四收盤鐘聲敲響之後，以標普500指數衡量的美國股市自2002年以來的大牛市正式宣告終結。昨天整個華爾街血流成河，十大板塊跌幅均超過 1%。道瓊斯工業平均指數跳水306點，跌幅2.46%。標普500指數大跌2.91%，創出52周新低。納斯達克綜合指數下跌1.99%。而就在兩天前，我們在1月16日本欄的評論中說道：“股市在近期內前景十分黯淡。從技術層面來看，市場還有進一步下跌的要求。”

有意思的是，儘管大盤全面下挫，我們在Swing Trader Bulletin中推薦的兩隻股票Excel Maritime(EXM)和Vca Antech(WOOF)卻逆勢大漲，分別高收5.98%和2.52%。

導致昨天大盤大幅跳水的原因是市場對金融市場動盪和經濟減速擔憂的升溫。就金融股而言，昨天美林(MER)股價暴跌10.25%，收於 49.45美元。昨天這家銀行業巨頭宣佈第四財季虧損高達103億美元，主要原因是115億美元的次貸和CDO減記，以及其套期保值業務26億美元的信貸估值調整。

在擔保行業，由於有消息稱評級機構正打算對它們的信用評級進行調降，專業保險公司股價大幅下挫。其中Ambac Financial Group(ABK)股價腰斬55%，位居跌幅榜首，原因是在穆迪打算對其信用級別進行重估並可能作出調降之後，公司表示他們可能沒有能力按照他們期望的方式獲得注資。很顯然，這對金融股和整個市場都不是什麼好消息。也許你會問：“這同銀行有什麼關係呢？”現在我們大家都知道美林和其他金融機構已經對次貸 CDO等“非套期保值”資產作出了大規模減記，但是還有一塊是目前暫時沒有暴露出來的，那就是“套期保值”資產。美林公佈它持有200億CDO的信用違約掉期合約或賣出期權。簡單來說，套期保值就是為了防止CDO價值下滑。

但現在問題是：出售這些信用違約掉期合約的大部分都是Ambac這樣的小型專業保險公司，這意味著如果他們破產(如果不能籌集到新的資金是很有可能的)，將意味著金融企業買到的“假定的保護”可能變得分文不值，因此他們會發現其資產縮水比先前所認為的要大得多。這就是昨天美林股價被剃頭10%、金融板塊下跌4%的原因。

圖1.1 銀行股指數(周線圖)

幾天前我們曾提到：“短期內金融股走勢不錯……這是長期下跌趨勢中的一個買入信號。”昨天銀行股繼續週二的跌勢，跌幅達4.71%。目前指數正在測試前期向上突破位的關鍵支撐，大約在2002-2003年振幅波谷區域。預計在這一區域會有一波整理行情。

圖1.2 標普500指數(周線圖)

銀行一跌，大盤就跟著下跌。昨天標普在金融市場動盪的持續中縮水近40點。值得注意的是，空頭多年來“未竟的事業”這次終於成功了——將股指拉至去年最低收盤點位之下(2007年最低收盤點數是1374.12點)。這無疑意味著一個趨勢的改變(當然是牛轉熊)。從技術上講，昨天的下跌是給長期牛市敲進的最後一根封棺釘。目前最需要關注的點位是2006年的最低收盤，大約在1223.69點。短期阻力位大約在1400點。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

道指還沒有到達2007年最低收盤位(12050.41點)，不過也不遠了，只位於上方100點。同樣，如果道指收盤跌破這一位置，將進入同標普類似的境地。短期阻力位大約在12600點。

總結：我們沒有必要強顏歡笑，昨天的走勢的確非常糟糕，投資者似乎都在以最快的速度拋掉手中所有燙手的山芋。這意味著我們已經處在或接近恐慌性拋盤的局面了。不過這是好消息，至少在短期內，因為一旦最後一個賣家拋出了手中的股票，市場通常會馬上快速反彈。在你下任何買單之前，請一定牢記，昨天的一跌已經給牛市蓋棺定論了，而可能出現的反彈也不過是另一個拋售的機會。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 17, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday January 18, 2008.

The 2002 cyclical uptrend in the US equities market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, is officially over after Thursday closing bell. Overall it was a terrible day on the Street with all ten economic sectors posted a loss in excess of 1%. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average plunged 306 points or 2.46%. The broader market, S&P 500, index lost 2.91% to finish at a fresh 52-week low. The NASDAQ Composite fell 1.99%. For the record, this was only two days after we’ve noted that: “the near term outlook in equities market is pretty miserable. Technical background suggests that stocks are looking at more declines” — see “The bears remain largely in charge” January 16, 2008.

Interestingly, despite the overall weakness, shares of Excel Maritime (EXM) and Vca Antech (WOOF), profiled in our “Swing Trader Bulletin” as potential buy candidates, all posted nice gains for the day, up 5.98% and 2.52% respectively.

Contributed to the day’s huge loss were the ongoing worries about further financial market turmoil and a slowing economy. Speaking of financial, shares of Merrill Lynch & Co (MER) fell 10.25% to $49.45 after the banking giant posted a huge loss of $10.3 billion in the fourth quarter, which were largely due to the $11.5 billion write-down for subprime and CDO exposure and a $2.6 billion credit valuation adjustment related to its hedges with financial guarantors.

Regard to guarantors, shares of monoline insurers tank today on news that rating agencies are considering downgrade the credit rating of these companies. Ambac Financial Group (ABK) was the hardest-hit, dropping off 55% after the company said that they probably won’t be able to raise capital in the manner in which they expected amid Moody’s plans to review the company’s credit rating for a possible ratings cut. Clearly, this is not good news for financial stocks and the market. But, “why and what this has to do with banks?” you might be wondering. We’ve all known that Merrill and other financial institutions have been aggressively writing down the “un-hedged” exposure to subprime CDOs (collateralized debt obligations), but there is another area that has not been touched, at least for the time being, which is the “hedged” exposure. Merrill reported that it had bought about $20 billion worth of credit default swaps or put options on CDOs. In plain English, the firm will be, theoretically, protected if the CDOs turn south.

And the problem is: the counterparty or sellers on most of these credit default swaps are a small group of monoline insurers like Ambac. This means if Ambac and other monoline insurers bankrupt, which is very likely if they’re unable to raise fresh money, all the “supposed protection” that financial firms bought may be worthless and if so, they may have a lot more exposure than previously thought. And this is the reason behind Merrill’s 10% haircut and 4% drop in the financial sector today.

Chart 1.1: Bank Index (weekly).

We’ve offered right here a couple days ago that: “[while the short-term] action is encouraging…this is a buy signal [within a context of a long-term] bear trend.” The bank picked up where it left off Tuesday, stumble 4.71% Thursday. The index is testing the key price level at area of previous bullish breakout point, around the 2002-2003’s low. Expect some sorts of consolidation in this area.

Chart 1.2: Standard & Poors 500 Index (weekly).

As goes the bank, so goes the tape. The S&P dropped almost 40 points on the extended financial market turmoil. It worth notice that, the bears had finally achieved something that they weren’t able to do in the past couple of years – pushing the index below the previous year’s lowest closing level (the lowest close in 2007 was 1374.12). This is a clear indication of a change in the underlying trend [from bullish to bearish, of course]. Technically speaking, today trading action had put the last nail into the bull’s coffin. Right now, the most obvious level to watch is the 2006’s closing low, about 1223.69. Short-term resistant is about 1400.

Chart 1.3: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

The blue-chip index isn’t quite there. It’s merely 100 points away from the 2007’s closing low of 12050.41. Again, a violation of this level on closing basis will put the index into the same playing field with the S&P. Short-term resistant is about 12600.

In summary: no need to sugar coating, Thursday’s trading action is very bearish – investors seemed to dump anything under the sun, as fast as they could. The action is indicative that we’re at or pretty near the all-out panic state. And this is good news, at least in the short-term, because the market often produces a swift turnaround reaction immediately after the last seller had completed the transaction. Just before you push that buy button, bear in mind that Thursday’s breakdown had put that last nail into the bull’s coffin and this [upcoming bounce] could be just another selling opportunity.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 16, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月17日(週四)的市場技術分析。

在我們昨天作出看跌評論後，週三美股在衰退憂慮中進一步下跌。道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌0.3%。標普500下滑0.6%，創出10個月來新低。納斯達克綜合指數下跌1%。

儘管大盤在下跌，但昨天銀行股指數($BKX)盤中出現走勢反轉，收盤大漲2.42%。事實上，昨天銀行股的走勢同我們先前的看漲評論十分吻合。引發市場樂觀情緒的是JP摩根大通(JPM)並不那麼糟糕的財報，畢竟其次級抵押貸款資產損失“只有13億美元”。摩根股價大漲5.77%，而 Financial Sector Select SPDRs ETF(XLF)在消息刺激下上漲1.68%。很明顯，摩根的財報公佈導致銀行板塊出現一些空頭回補交易。不過我們不要忘了，華爾街平均仍是看空金融板塊的。

圖1.1 銀行股指數(日線圖)

銀行股指數在80點附近的長期支撐區域走出了一個看漲的“雙底”形態。從技術上講，昨天的價格走勢增加了指數測試12月底向下突破位(大約在 90點)的可能性。不過我們還要注意，這一波反彈能否持續下去還要看美林(MER)第四季財報是利好還是利空，美林將在今日盤前公佈財報。

圖1.2 美林(日線圖)

正如我們上面提到的，美林的財報將成為今天行情的主要催化劑。在消息公佈之前，美林股價已經反彈至50日均線的關鍵支撐區域。當前我們還無法預料這一位置能否成功守住，但是如果股價在均線之上持續攀升，將增加向上測試12月高點(約63美元)的可能性。簡而言之，從技術層面來看，儘管走勢並不是很明朗，但看起來似乎也不糟糕——我們注意到，MACD在近期低點出現背離。不過我們應該記住，持續上漲並不是簡單的MACD背離就可以帶來的，還需要直接的催化劑。我們希望明天的財報能夠給多頭一個返場的充分理由。支撐位在上周低點，大約47.50美元。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

儘管金融板塊表現出強力動能，標普卻沒能守住早盤的漲幅。標普昨天繼續下探，收於8月低點附近區域。形勢有些不妙。正如我們提到的，如果標普收盤價持續跌破這一位置，將意味著美國股市2002年開始的長牛宣告終結。短期支撐大約在1400點。

圖1.4 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

同標普類似，昨天道指繼續下挫。儘管跌幅很小，但是成交量卻驚人地高，大約兩倍於均值。這一走勢儘管並不是很清晰，但是具有“機構調整倉位”的特徵，即“聰明錢”在為股市的更大幅下跌作出戰略調整。如果這是真的，那麼這一輪跌勢可能還遠未結束。支撐位在2007年春季的低點附近，大約12000 點。短期阻力位大約在12930點。

總結：金融股最近的走勢非常有利，在這個月剩下的時間裡該板塊很有可能持續上漲。不過再重申一下，這還要看今天美林的財報能否繼續給投資者帶來信心。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 16, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday January 17, 2008.

Stocks tumbled Wednesday, immediately after our bearish comment, gave up most of the early gains and some more amid recession concerns. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 0.3%. The broader market index, S&P 500, lost 0.6% to finish at a fresh 10-month low. The NASDAQ Composite fell 1%.

Despite the overall weakness, the Bank Index ($BKX) reversed it course of action, gained 2.42% for the day. As a matter of fact, today’s trading action was very consistent with our previous bullish comment on the group. Contributed to the overall optimism was the “better than feared” earning report from JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) – after all, it “only lost 1.3 billion” in bad mortgage debts. The stock jumped 5.77%, while the Financial Sector Select SPDRs ETF (XLF) gained 1.68% on the report. Clearly, JP Morgan news caused some short covering activities in the group. Remember, the Street is net short financials.

Chart 1.1: Bank Index (daily).

The index printed a bullish double bottom pattern around the area of long-term support, about 80. This is bullish. Technically speaking, today’s trading action had increased the probability for a test of late December’s bearish breakdown point, about 90. Although bear in mind that this [upcoming rally] is depended upon Merrill Lynch (MER) fourth quarter earnings report, which is scheduled to release before Thursday’s open.

Chart 1.2: Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (daily).

As noted above, Merrill Lynch’s earning report is the main catalyst for Thursday’s trading action. The stock had rallied directly into key resistant around the area of 50-day moving average head of the news. At this moment, it’s unknown whether this level holds or not, though a sustain advance above it will trigger all sort of stops and hence increases the probability for a test of December’s high, about 63. In short, the technical background, while ambiguous, doesn’t look that bad – noted the bullish MACD divergence at recent low. Although, bear in mind that, a sustain rally needs more than a simple MACD divergence. It needs a right catalyst. Hopefully tomorrow earning report can give the bulls a good reason to get their groove back. Support is at last week’s low, about 47.50.

Chart 1.3: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

Despite the strength in the financial stocks, the S&P wasn’t able to hold on to early gain. The board market index followed through to the downside and closed around the area of August’s low. This is not very encouraging. As mentioned, a sustain decline below this level on a closing basis is indicative that the 2002 cyclical uptrend in the US equities market is over. So keep a close eye on this. Short-term resistant is about 1400.

Chart 1.4: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

Similar to the S&P, the blue-chip index also followed through to the downside Wednesday. While the decline was pretty small, the trading volume is screamingly high – it’s about two times the daily average. The action, while ambiguous, had the characteristic of “institutional repositioning” – smart money or the well informed group re-positioned [for a tougher time]. This, if true, suggested that we’re only mid-point to the downside. Support is at the area of spring 2007’s low, about 12000. Short-term resistant is about 12930.

In summary: the recent trading action in the financial stocks is pretty encouraging. It had increased the likelihood that the group will shoot straight up for the remaining of the month. Though this, as noted above, is depended upon Merrill Lynch’s ability to recapture investors’ love when it reports the fourth quarter earning Thursday morning.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Editor’s note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence’s CEM News on January 15, 2008. It’s being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月16日(週三)的市場技術分析。

昨天在投資者的衰退恐懼中股市大幅下挫。道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌277點，是今年最大的單日跌幅。標普500下跌2.5%。納綜指下跌 2.5%，創出10個月來最低點。儘管大盤非常疲軟，但航空股卻逆市上揚。就在我們對航空板塊作出看漲評論以後，昨天全美證交所航空股指數(Amex Airline Index)緊接著上漲3.23%。三角洲航空公司(Delta Air Lines) (DAL)將與西北航空(Northwest Airlines)(NWA)和聯合航空(UAL)(UAUA)開始合併談判，並快速達成協議，該利好消息引發了投資者對航空板塊的樂觀情緒。

圖1.1 航空股指數(日線圖)

同我們預測中一致，航空股指數繼續朝12月的向下突破位(約36點)進發。我們相信，航空板塊相對於大盤的強勢將持續下去。支撐位在27.68點左右。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

“鑽石”形態通常意味著對前期趨勢的延續，昨天標普斷然出現下跌。從技術上講，這一價格走勢增加了重新測試1360～1370之間區域的可能性。就目前而言，我們尚無法判斷是否會走到這一步。但是，如果標普收盤持續跌破這一區域，將意味著美國股市自2002年以來的大牛市有可能轉為熊市。短期阻力位在1430點附近。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

昨天道指果斷跌破2007年8月低點形成的關鍵支撐。這對後市極為不利。目前最應該關注的點位是2007年春季的最低點，大約在12000點。短期阻力位大約在12930點。

總結：股市在近期內前景十分黯淡。從技術層面來看，市場還有進一步下跌的要求。在這種情況下，除非有什麼大的利好消息能夠扭轉所有投資者的消極情緒，空頭將繼續佔據主導地位。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。